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Stagflation, Persistent Unemployment and the Permanence of Economic Shocks

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  2. Economics, Finance, Business & Management
  3. Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital
  4. Vol. 52, Issue 4
  5. pp. 477–504

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Brunner, K., Cukierman, A., Meltzer, A. Stagflation, Persistent Unemployment and the Permanence of Economic Shocks. Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, 52(4), 477-504. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.52.4.477
Brunner, Karl; Cukierman, Alex and Meltzer, Allan H. "Stagflation, Persistent Unemployment and the Permanence of Economic Shocks" Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital 52.4, 2019, 477-504. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.52.4.477
Brunner, Karl/Cukierman, Alex/Meltzer, Allan H. (2019): Stagflation, Persistent Unemployment and the Permanence of Economic Shocks, in: Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, vol. 52, iss. 4, 477-504, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.52.4.477
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Stagflation, Persistent Unemployment and the Permanence of Economic Shocks

Brunner, Karl | Cukierman, Alex | Meltzer, Allan H.

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 52 (2019), Iss. 4 : pp. 477–504

1 Citations (CrossRef)

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Article Details

Publisher Name
Duncker & Humblot
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.52.4.477
Language
English
Pages
28

Author Details

Prof. Dr. Karl Brunner †

Prof. Dr. Alex Cukierman

Prof. Dr. Allan H. Meltzer †

Cited By

  1. Global stagflationary pressures: Macroeconomic repercussions of pandemic and geopolitical crises

    Pejčić, Jovica

    Beljić, Marina

    Glavaški, Olgica

    Ekonomija: teorija i praksa, Vol. 26 (2023), Iss. 2 P.98

    https://doi.org/10.5937/etp2302098P [Citations: 1]

References

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  4. Cukierman, A./Wachtel, P. (1979): Differential inflationary expectations and the variability of the rate of inflation: Theory and evidence. American Economic Review, September 69, pp. 535–609.  Google Scholar
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  6. Cukierman, A. (1980): The effects of wage indexation on macroeconomic fluctuations: A generalization. Journal of Monetary Economics 6, April, pp. 147–170.  Google Scholar
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  26. Brunner, K./Meltzer, A. H. (1978): Monetary theory (tentative title).  Google Scholar
  27. Cagan, P. (1972): The channels of monetary effects on interest rates, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.  Google Scholar
  28. Cukierman, A./Wachtel, P. (1979): Differential inflationary expectations and the variability of the rate of inflation: Theory and evidence. American Economic Review, September 69, pp. 535–609.  Google Scholar
  29. Cukierman, A. (1979): Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy: A generalization, Journal of Monetary Economics 5, April, pp. 113–230.  Google Scholar
  30. Cukierman, A. (1980): The effects of wage indexation on macroeconomic fluctuations: A generalization. Journal of Monetary Economics 6, April, pp. 147–170.  Google Scholar
  31. Frenkel, J. (1975): Inflation and the formation of expectations, Journal of Monetary Economics 1, November, pp. 403–421.  Google Scholar
  32. Friedman, B. M. (1979): Optimal expectations and the extreme information assumptions of ‘rational expectations’ macromodels. Journal of Monetary Economics 5, Januar, pp. 23 42.  Google Scholar
  33. Friedman, M. (1957): A theory of the consumption function, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.  Google Scholar
  34. Friedman, M. (1959): The demand for money: Some theoretical and empirical results, Journal of Political Economy 67, August, pp. 327–351.  Google Scholar
  35. Friedman, M. (1968): The role of monetary policy, American Economic Review 58, March, pp. 1–17.  Google Scholar
  36. Friedman, M. (1977): Nobel Lecture: Inflation and unemployment, Journal of Political Economy 85, June, pp. 451–472.  Google Scholar
  37. Graybill, F. A. (1961): An introduction to linear statistical models, McGraw-Hill, Vol. 1, New York.  Google Scholar
  38. Haberger, A. C. (1963): The dynamics of inflation in Chile, in: C. Christ, ed., Measurement in economics and econometrics, Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA.  Google Scholar
  39. Laidler, D. (1966): The rate of interest and the demand for money – Some empirical evidence, Journal of Political Economy 74, Dec., pp. 543–555.  Google Scholar
  40. Lucas, R./Rapping, L. (1969): Real wages, employment and inflation, Journal of Political Economy 77, Sept.–Okt., pp. 721–754.  Google Scholar
  41. Lucas, R. (1973): Some international evidence on output inflation tradeoffs, American Economic Review 63. June, pp. 326–335.  Google Scholar
  42. Lucas, R. (1975): An equilibrium model of the business cycle, Journal of Political Economy 83, Dec., pp. 1113–1144.  Google Scholar
  43. Mussa, M. (1975): Adaptive and regressive expectations in a rational model of the inflationary process, Journal of Monetary Economics 1, Nov., pp. 423–442.  Google Scholar
  44. Muth, J. F. (1960): Optimal properties of exponentially weighted forecasts, Journal of the American Statistical Association 55, June, pp. 299–306.  Google Scholar
  45. Muth, J. F. (1961): Rational expectations and the theory of price movement. Econometrica 23, July, pp. 315–335.  Google Scholar
  46. Phelps, E. S. (1967): Phillips curves, expectations of inflation and optimal unemployment over time. Economica 34, Aug., pp. 254–281.  Google Scholar
  47. Poole, W. (1976): Rational expectations in the macro model, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 2, pp. 463–514.  Google Scholar
  48. Turnovsky, S. J. (1977): Structural expectations and the effectiveness of government policy in a short run macroeconomic model, American Economic Review 67, Dec., pp. 851–866.  Google Scholar
  49. Barro, R. J. (1976): Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy, Journal of Monetary Economics 2, Jan., pp. 1–32.  Google Scholar
  50. Brunner, K./Meltzer, A. H. (1978): Monetary theory (tentative title).  Google Scholar
  51. Cagan, P. (1972): The channels of monetary effects on interest rates, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.  Google Scholar
  52. Cukierman, A./Wachtel, P. (1979): Differential inflationary expectations and the variability of the rate of inflation: Theory and evidence. American Economic Review, September 69, pp. 535–609.  Google Scholar
  53. Cukierman, A. (1979): Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy: A generalization, Journal of Monetary Economics 5, April, pp. 113–230.  Google Scholar
  54. Cukierman, A. (1980): The effects of wage indexation on macroeconomic fluctuations: A generalization. Journal of Monetary Economics 6, April, pp. 147–170.  Google Scholar
  55. Frenkel, J. (1975): Inflation and the formation of expectations, Journal of Monetary Economics 1, November, pp. 403–421.  Google Scholar
  56. Friedman, B. M. (1979): Optimal expectations and the extreme information assumptions of ‘rational expectations’ macromodels. Journal of Monetary Economics 5, Januar, pp. 23 42.  Google Scholar
  57. Friedman, M. (1957): A theory of the consumption function, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.  Google Scholar
  58. Friedman, M. (1959): The demand for money: Some theoretical and empirical results, Journal of Political Economy 67, August, pp. 327–351.  Google Scholar
  59. Friedman, M. (1968): The role of monetary policy, American Economic Review 58, March, pp. 1–17.  Google Scholar
  60. Friedman, M. (1977): Nobel Lecture: Inflation and unemployment, Journal of Political Economy 85, June, pp. 451–472.  Google Scholar
  61. Graybill, F. A. (1961): An introduction to linear statistical models, McGraw-Hill, Vol. 1, New York.  Google Scholar
  62. Haberger, A. C. (1963): The dynamics of inflation in Chile, in: C. Christ, ed., Measurement in economics and econometrics, Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA.  Google Scholar
  63. Laidler, D. (1966): The rate of interest and the demand for money – Some empirical evidence, Journal of Political Economy 74, Dec., pp. 543–555.  Google Scholar
  64. Lucas, R./Rapping, L. (1969): Real wages, employment and inflation, Journal of Political Economy 77, Sept.–Okt., pp. 721–754.  Google Scholar
  65. Lucas, R. (1973): Some international evidence on output inflation tradeoffs, American Economic Review 63. June, pp. 326–335.  Google Scholar
  66. Lucas, R. (1975): An equilibrium model of the business cycle, Journal of Political Economy 83, Dec., pp. 1113–1144.  Google Scholar
  67. Mussa, M. (1975): Adaptive and regressive expectations in a rational model of the inflationary process, Journal of Monetary Economics 1, Nov., pp. 423–442.  Google Scholar
  68. Muth, J. F. (1960): Optimal properties of exponentially weighted forecasts, Journal of the American Statistical Association 55, June, pp. 299–306.  Google Scholar
  69. Muth, J. F. (1961): Rational expectations and the theory of price movement. Econometrica 23, July, pp. 315–335.  Google Scholar
  70. Phelps, E. S. (1967): Phillips curves, expectations of inflation and optimal unemployment over time. Economica 34, Aug., pp. 254–281.  Google Scholar
  71. Poole, W. (1976): Rational expectations in the macro model, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 2, pp. 463–514.  Google Scholar
  72. Turnovsky, S. J. (1977): Structural expectations and the effectiveness of government policy in a short run macroeconomic model, American Economic Review 67, Dec., pp. 851–866.  Google Scholar

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Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Karl Brunner / Alex Cukierman / Allan H. Meltzer: Stagflation, Persistent Unemployment and the Permanence of Economic Shocks 477
Abstract 477
I. Introduction 477
II. The Model 479
1. The Demand for Commodities 479
2. The Supply of Commodities and the Labor Market 480
3. The Money Market 481
4. Equilibrium 482
5. Permanent and Transitory Shocks – The Stochastic and Information Structures of the Ecoyomy 483
III. The Formation of Beliefs about Permanent Variables 484
1. Optimal Forecasts of Permanent Values of the Exogenous Shocks 484
2. Solutions for the Permanent Values 477
IV. The Working of the Model 477
1. Solutions for Actual Values 477
2. Responses to Productivity Changes 477
3. Responses to Monetary Shocks 477
4. Responses to Spending Shocks 477
V. Stagflation 477
1. Unemployment 477
2. Persistent Unemployment and Business Cycles 478
3. Expected Inflation 478
4. Stagflation 478
VI. Conclusion 478
References 478

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