Classification and Clustering in Business Cycle Analysis

doi:10.3790/978-3-428-52425-9

Classification and Clustering in Business Cycle Analysis

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Heilemann, U., Weihs, C. (Eds.) (2007). Classification and Clustering in Business Cycle Analysis. Duncker & Humblot. https://doi.org/10.3790/978-3-428-52425-9

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Classification and Clustering in Business Cycle Analysis

Editors: Heilemann, Ullrich | Weihs, Claus

Schriften des Rheinisch-Westfälischen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. 79

(2007)

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Publisher Name: Duncker & Humblot
ISBN: 978-3-428-52425-9
978-3-428-12425-1 (print edition)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3790/978-3-428-52425-9
Edition: 1
Language: English
Pages: 168
Collections: Duncker & Humblot Open Access
Subjects: Macroeconomics

Abstract

The analysis of cyclical macroeconomic phenomena is an important field of econometric research. In the recent past, research interests have de-emphasized quantitative forecasting exercises and have addressed the qualitative diagnosis of the relative stance of the economy regarding »upswing«, »recession«, or »boom« periods, i. e. the classification of the state of the economy into a limited number of discrete states. In this context the principal challenge is to reduce the multifaceted and sometimes abundant quantitative information about the business cycle to such qualitative statements in an efficient way. For more than six years this task was the focus of the project »Multivariate determination and analysis of business cycles« within the SFB 475 »Reduction of complexity in multivariate data structures«, funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG).

The necessity for complexity reduction is, of course, not unique to business cycle analysis but is studied in many fields and in a number of ways. This broad interest in the reduction of problem dimensionality and in the appropriate combination of data and of theory caused the RWI Essen and the Statistical Department of the University of Dortmund in January 2002 to hold a workshop at the RWI Essen where the findings of this and similar projects were presented and discussed. The present publication collects revised versions of the papers presented at this workshop. Although the workshop took place some five years ago, these papers mark an importent juncture in the development of business cycle research.

Section Title	Page	Action	Price
Preface	5
Contents	7
Ullrich Heilemann and Claus Weihs: Introductio	9
References	17
Victor Zarnowitz: Phases and Stages of Recent U.S. Business Cycles	19
1. Introductio	19
2. Growth Cycles and Business Cycles	20
3. Stages of Expansion and Contractio	22
4. Applicability to U.S. Postwar Expansions	26
5. Applicability to U.S. Postwar Contractions	29
6. An Extension to the Last Recessio	30
7. Conclusio	31
References	31
Ullrich Heilemann and Heinz Josef Münch: The U.S. Business Cycle and its Phases 1948–2000	33
1. Introductio	33
2. Re-examining Meyer/Weinberg	35
3. Stability of Meyer/Weinberg’s Results	42
3.1 A Four-phase Classification for 1973 to 2000	43
3.2 New Sample Performance of the M/W Scheme	43
3.3 Outside Sample Performance	45
3.4 Stability of the M/W-Scheme in the New Sample	45
4. Summary and Conclusions	46
References	48
Appendix: Linear Discriminant Analysis	49
Claus Weihs and Ursula Garczarek: Stability of Multivariate Representation of Business Cycles over Time	55
1. Introductio	55
2. Data	56
3. Classification of Business Cycle Phases	56
4. Classification Methods and Classification Rules	57
5. Double Leave-one-cycle-out Cross Validatio	58
6. Classification Results and Resulting Models	59
6.1 Linear Discriminant Analysis	59
6.2 Quadratic Discriminant Analysis	62
6.3 Continuous RAKE-Method	64
6.4 Comparison of Classification Rules	66
7. Economic Implications	66
8. Conclusio	67
References	67
Marlene Amstad und Bernd Schips: Wachstumsfluktuationen, Zykluskonzepte und konjunkturelle Wendepunkte	69
1. Einleitung	69
2. Die Erfassung des latenten Phänomens „Konjunktur“	70
2.1 Bemerkungen zur Datenlage	70
2.2 Bemerkungen zur Saisonbereinigung	72
3. Alternative Zykluskonzepte zur Erfassung von Wachstumsfluktuatione	72
3.1 Das klassische Zykluskonzept	72
3.2 Das Wachstumszykluskonzept	73
4. Aspekte verschiedener Trendbereinigungsverfahre	74
5. Beispiele zur unterschiedlichen Wendepunktdatierung	76
6. Zykluskonzept und Erklärungsansätze	78
7. Fazit	79
Literatu	79
Anhang: Fragebogen der Monatsumfrage in der Industrie	80
Bernd Lucke und Malte Knüppel: Unternehmensgrößenklassen im ifo-Konjunkturtest: eine Burns-Mitchell-Analyse	83
1. Einleitung	83
2. Burns-Mitchell-Methodologie	84
3. Bestimmung der Referenzzykle	87
4. Geschäftsklimadaten nach Unternehmensgrößenklasse	94
5. Beschäftigungseffekte	101
6. Schlussbemerkunge	103
Literatu	104
Anhang	104
Katharina Morik and Stefan Rüping: An Inductive Logic Programming Approach to the Classification of Phases in Business Cycles	107
1. Introductio	107
2. Inductive Logic Programming	110
2.1 MOBAL	112
2.1.1 The Rule Discovery Tool RDT	112
2.1.2 Rule Inspectio	113
2.1.3 Knowledge Revisio	114
3. Experiments on German Business Cycle Data	114
3.1 Discretizatio	115
3.2 Modeling Four Phases Without Time Intervals	116
3.3 Modeling Four Phases with Time Intervals	118
3.4 Modeling Two Phases	121
3.5 Concept Shift	122
4. Conclusion and Further Work	123
References	124
Ursula Garczarek and Claus Weihs: Univariate Characterization of the German Business Cycle 1955–1994	127
1. Introductio	127
2. Analysis of the Course of the Economic Variables in the Business Cycle	128
3. Independence of Economic Variables	131
4. Univariate Rule Finding	131
5. Ranges Corresponding to Phases	135
6. Conclusio	136
References	136
Claudia Becker and Winfried Theis: Combining Dimension Reduction and Fuzzy-clustering: An Application to Business Cycles	137
1. Introductio	137
2. Dimension Reduction and Clustering	138
2.1 Sliced Inverse Regressio	138
2.2 Fuzzy-clustering	139
3. Results	140
4. Conclusio	143
References	143
Gabriela Guimarães: Self-organizing Maps for Time Series Analysis	145
1. Introductio	145
2. The Basic SOM-Algorithm	146
3. Temporal Sequence Processing without Modifying the Basic SOM-Algorithm	147
4. Modifying the Activation/Learning Rule	149
5. Modification of the Network Topology	151
6. Conclusions	153
References	153
Victor Zarnowitz: Modern Trends and Their Effects on International Business Cycles	157
1. Globalization, New Information Age, and Monetary Regimes	157
2. Business Cycles under the Gold Standard before World War I	158
3. The Interwar Period: 1919–1939	160
4. The Post-World War II Era	162
References	164
List of Authors	165

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