Abstract

Die Zukunft ist ungewiss. Aber mit Gewissheit können wir sagen, dass Veränderungen stattfinden werden und die Zukunft anders wird als die Gegenwart oder die Vergangenheit. Klar ersichtlich wird dies in dynamischen Märkten, die durch rasche Veränderungen, relativ leichte Ein- und Ausstiegsbedingungen von Mitbewerbern, aufkommende Technologien und sich ändernde Kundenanforderungen gekennzeichnet sind. Hier werden „Best Practices“ schnell zu „Old Practices“. Unsere moderne, globale und wissensbasierte Wirtschaft erfordert neue Konzepte und Instrumente, um Wettbewerbsvorteile langfristig zu sichern. Die Strategische Vorausschau (engl. Strategic Foresight) in Kombination mit dem Innovationsmanagement sind wesentliche Erfolgsfaktoren, um mit den Herausforderungen bedingt durch Veränderungen umzugehen.

The integration of strategic foresight and innovation management is pivotal to the securing of long-term competitive advantages. Strategic foresight enables organizations to address radical and incremental changes in their environment by analyzing the complexity and dynamics of future developments and their interdependencies. Strategic foresight contributes to improve innovation processes through various channels. Firstly, strategic foresight reduces uncertainty about innovation and has a positive impact on creativity and innovation performance. Furthermore, strategic foresight decreases the lead-time in innovation processes via anticipatory activities and early detection of changes in the business environment. Secondly, depending on the type, context, and goals of innovation operations, different methods of strategic foresight are deployed. Trend analyses are suitable for incremental innovations, whereas scenario techniques and roadmapping can support radical and disruptive innovations. Finally, integrated and continuous strategic foresight operations help to ensure the future viability of innovative projects, and to align the projects with the corporate strategy. Further research and improvements are needed for integrating strategic foresight in companies. Although most organizations have recognized that foresight is a crucial competitive factor, they often find it difficult to establish strategic foresight as a continuous and integrated operation of the innovation process. Above all, there is a need for improvement in the dissemination, communication, and use of foresight information across the company‘s divisions and within the innovation processes. The information from foresight processes is most effective, when the findings are communicated purposefully within the company and reflected in its diverse activities. This not only aligns company operations towards a more coherent goal, but also justifies the efforts strategic foresight requires. Purposefully used, the integration of strategic foresight in innovation management can improve the efficiency and results of innovation process, and thus improve a company‘s innovation capability.