Financial Predictors of Real Activity and the Propagation of Aggregate Shocks
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Financial Predictors of Real Activity and the Propagation of Aggregate Shocks
Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 42 (2009), Iss. 1 : pp. 1–23
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Dr. Johann Burgstaller, Johannes Kepler Universität Linz, Institut für betriebliche Finanzwirtschaft, Abteilung für Asset Management, Freistädterstraße 315, A-4040 Linz/Österreich.
Cited By
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The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster's Perspective
Drechsel, Katja
Scheufele, Rolf
Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 45 (2012), Iss. 1 P.1
https://doi.org/10.3790/kuk.45.1.1 [Citations: 6]
Abstract
Financial Predictors of Real Activity and the Propagation of Aggregate Shocks
Bond yield and retail interest rate spreads are presumed to lead real activity on the basis of financial accelerator mechanisms, markup cyclicality or simply because they are forward-looking. Empirical results for Austria show that retail interest rate spreads outperform many other indicators in this respect. Nevertheless, there is no evidence for a financial accelerator being behind this finding. The euro area corporate bond market may, however, represent a shock propagation channel of certain relevance for the Austrian economy. Keywords: Leading indicator, business cycle, shock propagation, financial accelerator, bank markup. (JEL E32, E44, G12, G21)