Wann verursachen Niedrigzinsen Hauspreisblasen? Lehren aus einem systematischen Fallstudienansatz
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Wann verursachen Niedrigzinsen Hauspreisblasen? Lehren aus einem systematischen Fallstudienansatz
Dullien, Sebastian | Joebges, Heike | Márquez-Velázquez, Alejandro
Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. 85 (2016), Iss. 1 : pp. 125–138
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HTW Berlin
HTW Berlin
Lateinamerikainstitut, Freie Universität Berlin
Abstract
This article studies the relationship between the stance of monetary policy and housing price bubbles. Out of a sample of 16 OECD countries for which detailed housing data are available, we systematically select three case studies that represent the varying links between housing bubbles and the stance of monetary policy: The first case presents a country where a period of low interest rates has been followed by a house price bubble (US in the 2000s). The second case portrays a country in which a bubble emerged even though interest rates have been rather high (UK in the 2000s). The third case illustrates a country in which low interest rates have not been followed by a housing price bubble (Austria in the 2000s). The analysis of the different developments points to the role of regulatory changes as the main causes for bubble formation, indicating that sensible regulation and state intervention can prevent bubbles even in the face of low interest rates.