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Fruitful and Barren Developments in Economics
Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, Vol. 135 (2015), Iss. 2 : pp. 143–154
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Bruno S. Frey, Universität Zürich, FB Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Höttingerstr. 10, CH-8032 Zürich, Switzerland
Abstract
The development of research in economics proceeds in five phases: (1) novel ideas and great insights appear; (2) the number of contributions explodes and the marginal returns of insights gained decrease; (3) the original idea is revitalized; (4) decreasing marginal returns to insights set in again; and (5) new directions of research emerge. These stylized phases are illustrated by Growth Theory, Constitutional Economics, Political Business Cycles and Laboratory Experiments.
The terms „fruitful" and „barren" are related to particular phases in the development of economic research. The barren periods are due to the specific institutional conditions under which scholars have to operate: the dominant need to publish and to get cited. These goals are defined by internal scholarly standards and requirements not devised to create new insights. It is high time to seriously reconsider the institutional foundations on which economic science is taking place. Some suggestions are made.