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Murai, T., Schnabl, G. Macroeconomic Policy Making and Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area. Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, 54(3), 347-373. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.54.3.347
Murai, Taiki and Schnabl, Gunther "Macroeconomic Policy Making and Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area" Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital 54.3, 2021, 347-373. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.54.3.347
Murai, Taiki/Schnabl, Gunther (2021): Macroeconomic Policy Making and Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area, in: Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, vol. 54, iss. 3, 347-373, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.54.3.347
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Macroeconomic Policy Making and Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area

Murai, Taiki | Schnabl, Gunther

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 54 (2021), Iss. 3 : pp. 347–373

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Article Details

Publisher Name
Duncker & Humblot
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.54.3.347
Language
English
Pages
27
Keywords

Author Details

Taiki Murai, Leipzig University, Grimmaische Straße 12, 04159 Leipzig, Germany.

Prof. Dr. Gunther Schnabl, Leipzig University, Grimmaische Straße 12, 04109 Leipzig, Germany.

References

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  7. Bonatti, L,/Fracasso, A. (2013): The German Model and the European Crisis. Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. 51(6), 1023–1039.  Google Scholar
  8. Branson, W. (1977): Exchange Rates in the Short Run: The Dollar Deutsche Mark Rate. European Economic Review, Vol. 10, 303–332.  Google Scholar
  9. Buiter, W./Michels, J./Rahbari, E. (2011): ELA: An Emperor Without Clothes? Citi Global Economics View.  Google Scholar
  10. Buti, M./Franco, D./Ongena, H. (1998): Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 14(3), 81–97.  Google Scholar
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  15. Eichhorst, W./Marx, P. (2011): Reforming German Labour Market Institutions: A Dual Path to Flexibility. Journal of European Social Policy, Vol. 21(1), 73–87.  Google Scholar
  16. European Central Bank (2011): TARGET2 Balances of National Central Banks in the Euro Area. Monthly Bulletin, Oct 2011, 35–43.  Google Scholar
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  20. Farhi, E./Gopinath, G./Itskhoki, O. (2021): Fiscal Devaluations. The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 81(2), 725–760.  Google Scholar
  21. Fialová, K./Schneider, O. (2009): Labor Market Institutions and Their Effect on Labor Market Performance in the New EU Member Countries. Eastern European Economics, Vol. 47(3), 57–83.  Google Scholar
  22. Fleming, M. (1962): Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates. IMF Staff Paper, Vol. 9, 369–379.  Google Scholar
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  28. Horn, G./Watt, A. (2017): Wages and Nominal and Real Unit Labour Cost Differential in EMU. European Economy Discussion Papers 2015.  Google Scholar
  29. International Monetary Fund (2014): Germany: Selected Issues 217.  Google Scholar
  30. Ioannou, D./Stracca, L. (2014): Have the Euro Area and EU Governance Worked? Just the Facts. European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 34, 1–17.  Google Scholar
  31. King, M. (2002): Strong Families or Patriarchal Economies? ‘Familial’ Labor Markets and Welfare States in Comparative Perspective. LIS Working Paper Series 301.  Google Scholar
  32. Kogan, I. (2006): Labor Markets and Economic Incorporation among Recent Immigrants in Europe. Social Forces, Vol. 85(2), 697–721.  Google Scholar
  33. Lagarde, C. (2020): Our Response to the Coronavirus Emergency. ECB: Frankfurt.  Google Scholar
  34. Langenus, G. (2005): The Stability and Growth Pact: An Eventful History, National Bank of Belgium Economic Review, Vol. 2, 65–81.  Google Scholar
  35. Litsios, I./Pilbeam, K. (2017): An Empirical Analysis of the Nexus Between Investment, Fiscal Balances and Current Account Balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain. Economic Modelling, Vol. 63, 143–152.  Google Scholar
  36. Mayer, T./Schnabl, G. (2020): Post-COVID-19 EMU: Economic Distancing by Parallel Currencies. Intereconomics, Vol. 55(6), 387–391.  Google Scholar
  37. Müller, S./Schnabl, G. (2019): The Brexit as a Forerunner: Monetary Policy, Economic Order and Divergence Forces in the European Union. Economists’ Voice, Vol. 16, 1.  Google Scholar
  38. Mundell, R. (1962): Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates. Canadian Journal of Economic and Political Science, Vol. 29, 475–485.  Google Scholar
  39. Nickell, S. (1997): Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. (11)3, 55–74.  Google Scholar
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  42. Pierluigi, B./Sondermann, D. (2018): Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Where Do We Stand? ECB Occasional Paper 211.  Google Scholar
  43. Pisani-Feri, J./Merler, S. (2012): The Simple Macroeconomics of North and South in EMU. Bruegel Working Paper 2012/12.  Google Scholar
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  47. Ruppert, K./Stähler, N. (2020): Household Savings, Capital Investments and Public Policies: What Drives the German Current Account? Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper 41/2020.  Google Scholar
  48. Schnabl, G. (2018): Fiscal Divergence and Current Account Imbalances in Europe. Economists’ Voice, Vol. 15, 1.  Google Scholar
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  53. Sinn, H.-W./Wollmershäuser, T. (2012): Target Loans, Current Account Balances and Capital Flows: the ECB’s Rescure Facility. International Tax and Public Finance, Vol. 19(4), 468–508.  Google Scholar
  54. Sørensen, P. B. (2002): The German Business Tax Reform of 2000: A General Equilibrium Analysis. German Economic Review Vol. 3(4), 347–378.  Google Scholar
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  57. Unger, R. (2017): Asymmetric Credit Growth and Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 73, 435–451.  Google Scholar
  58. Wendorff, K. (2001): The Discussion on a National Stability Pact in Germany. Fiscal Rules. Banca d’Italia Research Department Public Finance Workshop.  Google Scholar
  59. Belke, A./Dreger, C. (2014): Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: Does Catching Up Explain the Development. Review of International Economics, Vol 21(1), 6–17.  Google Scholar
  60. Belke, A./Gros, D./Schnabl, G. (2016): Das europäische Verfahren zur Vermeidung und Korrektur makroökonomischer Ungleichgewichte – Eine Forschungsagenda zu Reformansätzen. Wirtschaftsdienst, Vol. 96(8), 548–556.  Google Scholar
  61. Belke, A./Haskamp, U./Schnabl, G. (2018): Beyond Balassa and Samuelson: Real Convergence, Capital Flows, and Competitiveness in Greece. Empirica, Vol 44(2), 409–424.  Google Scholar
  62. Böhm von Bawerk, E. (1914): Unsere passive Handelsbilanz, In: Weiss, Franz (ed.): Gesammelte Schriften von Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk. Leipzig: Hölder-Pichler-Tempsky.  Google Scholar
  63. Bonatti, L,/Fracasso, A. (2013): The German Model and the European Crisis. Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. 51(6), 1023–1039.  Google Scholar
  64. Branson, W. (1977): Exchange Rates in the Short Run: The Dollar Deutsche Mark Rate. European Economic Review, Vol. 10, 303–332.  Google Scholar
  65. Buiter, W./Michels, J./Rahbari, E. (2011): ELA: An Emperor Without Clothes? Citi Global Economics View.  Google Scholar
  66. Buti, M./Franco, D./Ongena, H. (1998): Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 14(3), 81–97.  Google Scholar
  67. Mundell, R. (1962): Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates. Canadian Journal of Economic and Political Science, Vol. 29, 475–485.  Google Scholar
  68. Nickell, S. (1997): Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. (11)3, 55–74.  Google Scholar
  69. Obstfeld, M. (1999): EMU: Ready, or Not? NBER Working Papers 6682.  Google Scholar
  70. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (1998): OECD Economic Surveys, 1997–1998: Germany.  Google Scholar
  71. Pierluigi, B./Sondermann, D. (2018): Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Where Do We Stand? ECB Occasional Paper 211.  Google Scholar
  72. Pisani-Feri, J./Merler, S. (2012): The Simple Macroeconomics of North and South in EMU. Bruegel Working Paper 2012/12.  Google Scholar
  73. Radulescu, D./Stimmelmayr, M. (2012): The Impact of the 2008 German Corporate Tax Reform: A Dynamic CGE Analysis. Economic Modelling, Vol. 27(1), 454–467.  Google Scholar
  74. Rinne, U./Zimmermann, K. (2013): Is Germany the North Star of Labor Market Policy? IMF Economic Review, Vol. 61(4), 702–729.  Google Scholar
  75. Rodden, J. (2003): Soft Budget Constraints and German Federalism. In Fiscal Decentralization and the Challenge of Hard Budget Constraints (161–186). Ed. Rodden, J./Eskeland, G./Litvack, J. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.  Google Scholar
  76. Ruppert, K./Stähler, N. (2020): Household Savings, Capital Investments and Public Policies: What Drives the German Current Account? Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper 41/2020.  Google Scholar
  77. Schnabl, G. (2018): Fiscal Divergence and Current Account Imbalances in Europe. Economists’ Voice, Vol. 15, 1.  Google Scholar
  78. Schnabl, G./Sonnenberg, N. (2020): (T)LTRO-Tracker. Mimeo.  Google Scholar
  79. Schnabl, G./Zemanek, H. (2011): Inter-Temporal Savings, Current Account Imbalances and Asymmetric Shocks in a Heterogeneous European Monetary Union. Intereconomics, Vol. 46(3), 153–160.  Google Scholar
  80. Schröder, G. (2013): Reforms and Agenda 2010. Mimeo.  Google Scholar
  81. Sinn, H.-W. (2020): The Economics of Target Balances. From Lehman to Corona. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.  Google Scholar
  82. Sinn, H.-W./Wollmershäuser, T. (2012): Target Loans, Current Account Balances and Capital Flows: the ECB’s Rescure Facility. International Tax and Public Finance, Vol. 19(4), 468–508.  Google Scholar
  83. Sørensen, P. B. (2002): The German Business Tax Reform of 2000: A General Equilibrium Analysis. German Economic Review Vol. 3(4), 347–378.  Google Scholar
  84. Stark, J. (2001): Genesis of a Pact. In: The Stability and Growth Pact: The Architecture of Fiscal Policy in EMU (77–105). Brunila, A./Buti, M./Franco, D. (eds). London: Palgrave Macmillan.  Google Scholar
  85. Strauch, R./Paesani, P./Kremer, M. (2006): Public Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates: The Case of Germany, Italy and the USA. ECB Working Paper Series 656.  Google Scholar
  86. Unger, R. (2017): Asymmetric Credit Growth and Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 73, 435–451.  Google Scholar
  87. Wendorff, K. (2001): The Discussion on a National Stability Pact in Germany. Fiscal Rules. Banca d’Italia Research Department Public Finance Workshop.  Google Scholar
  88. Cechetti, S./McCauley, R./McGuire, P. (2012): Interpreting TARGET2 Balances. BIS Working Papers 393.  Google Scholar
  89. Cordon, M./Neary, P. (1982): Booming Sector and De-industrialisation in a Small Open Economy. The Economic Journal, Vol. 92, 825–848.  Google Scholar
  90. Deutsche Bundesbank (2005): Deficit-Limiting Budgetary Rules and A National Stability Pact in Germany. Monthly Report, Vol. 54(7), 23–37.  Google Scholar
  91. Deutsche Bundesbank (2020): Die deutsche Zahlungsbilanz für das Jahr 2019. Deutsche Bundesbank Monatsbericht März 2020, 17–40.  Google Scholar
  92. Eichhorst, W./Marx, P. (2011): Reforming German Labour Market Institutions: A Dual Path to Flexibility. Journal of European Social Policy, Vol. 21(1), 73–87.  Google Scholar
  93. European Central Bank (2011): TARGET2 Balances of National Central Banks in the Euro Area. Monthly Bulletin, Oct 2011, 35–43.  Google Scholar
  94. European Central Bank (2020): ECB Announces Package of Temporary Collateral Easing Measures, ECB: Frankfurt.  Google Scholar
  95. European Commission (2021): NextGenerationEU: Commission Gets Ready to Raise up to €800 billion to Fund the Recovery. Brussels: European Commission.  Google Scholar
  96. Fabiani, J./Fidora, M./Setzer, R./Westphal, A./Zorell, N. (2021): Sudden Stops and Assets Purchase Programmes in the Euro Area. Mimeo.  Google Scholar
  97. Farhi, E./Gopinath, G./Itskhoki, O. (2021): Fiscal Devaluations. The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 81(2), 725–760.  Google Scholar
  98. Fialová, K./Schneider, O. (2009): Labor Market Institutions and Their Effect on Labor Market Performance in the New EU Member Countries. Eastern European Economics, Vol. 47(3), 57–83.  Google Scholar
  99. Fleming, M. (1962): Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates. IMF Staff Paper, Vol. 9, 369–379.  Google Scholar
  100. Gadatsch, N./Stähler, N./Weigert, B. (2016): German Labor Market and Fiscal Reforms 1999–2008: Can They Be Blamed for Intra-Euro Area Imbalances? Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 50, 307–324.  Google Scholar
  101. Garrett, G. (1993): The Politics of Maastricht. Economics and Politics, Vol. 5(2), 105–123.  Google Scholar
  102. Gros, D./Alcidi, C. (2014): Country Adjustment to a ‘Sudden Stop’: Does the Euro Make a Difference? International Economics and Economic Policy, Vol. 12, 5–20.  Google Scholar
  103. Gros, D./Thygesen, N. (1994): European Monetary Integration. From the European Monetary System to Economic and Monetary Union. Longman Group, London.  Google Scholar
  104. Hayek, F. A. (1931): Prices and Production. Reprint New York: Augustus M. Kelley Publishers.  Google Scholar
  105. Horn, G./Watt, A. (2017): Wages and Nominal and Real Unit Labour Cost Differential in EMU. European Economy Discussion Papers 2015.  Google Scholar
  106. International Monetary Fund (2014): Germany: Selected Issues 217.  Google Scholar
  107. Ioannou, D./Stracca, L. (2014): Have the Euro Area and EU Governance Worked? Just the Facts. European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 34, 1–17.  Google Scholar
  108. King, M. (2002): Strong Families or Patriarchal Economies? ‘Familial’ Labor Markets and Welfare States in Comparative Perspective. LIS Working Paper Series 301.  Google Scholar
  109. Kogan, I. (2006): Labor Markets and Economic Incorporation among Recent Immigrants in Europe. Social Forces, Vol. 85(2), 697–721.  Google Scholar
  110. Lagarde, C. (2020): Our Response to the Coronavirus Emergency. ECB: Frankfurt.  Google Scholar
  111. Langenus, G. (2005): The Stability and Growth Pact: An Eventful History, National Bank of Belgium Economic Review, Vol. 2, 65–81.  Google Scholar
  112. Litsios, I./Pilbeam, K. (2017): An Empirical Analysis of the Nexus Between Investment, Fiscal Balances and Current Account Balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain. Economic Modelling, Vol. 63, 143–152.  Google Scholar
  113. Mayer, T./Schnabl, G. (2020): Post-COVID-19 EMU: Economic Distancing by Parallel Currencies. Intereconomics, Vol. 55(6), 387–391.  Google Scholar
  114. Müller, S./Schnabl, G. (2019): The Brexit as a Forerunner: Monetary Policy, Economic Order and Divergence Forces in the European Union. Economists’ Voice, Vol. 16, 1.  Google Scholar
  115. Abad, J./Löffler, A./Schnabl, G. (2013): Fiscal Divergence and TARGET2 Imbalances in the EMU. Intereconomics, Vol. 48(1), 51–58.  Google Scholar
  116. Alexander, S. (1952): Effects of a Devaluation on a Trade Balance. IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 2(2), 263–278.  Google Scholar

Abstract

The paper analyses the role of fiscal and monetary policy for the development of the current account imbalances in the euro area, including the most recent developments during the coronavirus crisis. Several financial transmission channels such as international bank lending, changes in TARGET2 balances, international rescue credit and government bond purchases of euro area central banks are identified. It is found that differing fiscal policy stances which have interacted differently with the ECB’s monetary policy have been at roots of first diverging and then converging current account positions in the euro area. Since the European financial and debt crisis, public financing mechanisms and the unconventional monetary of the ECB have contributed to the persistence of intra-euro area current account imbalances.

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Taiki Murai / Gunther Schnabl: Macroeconomic Policy Making and Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area 1
Abstract 1
I. Introduction 1
II. Pre-Crisis Divergence of Fiscal Policies and Current Account Imbalances 3
1. German Reforms as an Asymmetric Shock for the Euro Area 3
2. Current Account Deficits in the Southern Euro Area and Beyond 8
III. Crisis, Emergency Credit and Fiscal Rescue Packages 9
1. Monetary Rescue Measures 1
2. Fiscal Rescue Funds 1
IV. Post-crisis Macroeconomic Policy Mix 1
1. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Mix 1
2. ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy 1
V. Outlook: The Consequences of the Coronavirus Crisis 2
References 2

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