Do Large TARGET2 Balances Bear Risks for the Euro Area?
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Do Large TARGET2 Balances Bear Risks for the Euro Area?
Horst, Maximilian J. | Neyer, Ulrike
Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 55 (2022), Iss. 1 : pp. 3–34
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Corresponding Author. Maximilian J. Horst, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Chair of Monetary Economics, Universitätsstraße 1, 40225 Düsseldorf.
Prof. Dr. Ulrike Neyer, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Chair of Monetary Economics, Universitätsstraße 1, 40225 Düsseldorf.
References
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Fuest, C./Sinn, H. W. (2018b): Target Risks Without Euro Exits, CESifo Forum, Vol. 19(4), 36–45.
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Hellwig, M./Schnabel, I. (2019b): Target Balances, Current Account Balances, Money Creation, Banks and Capital Markets, Wirtschaftsdienst, Vol. 99(9), 632–640.
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Homburg, S. (2019): Targetsalden sind nicht empörend, sondern gefährlich, Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Vol. 20(2), 98–102.
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Horst, M. J./Neyer, U. (2019): The Impact of Quantitative Easing on Bank Loan Supply and Monetary Policy Implementation in the Euro Area, Review of Economics, Vol. 70(3), 229–265.
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Horst, M. J./Neyer, U./Stempel, D. (2020): Asymmetric Macroeconomic Effects of QE-Induced Increases in Excess Reserves in a Monetary Union, DICE Discussion Paper No. 346.
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Sinn, H.-W. (2018): Fast 1.000 Milliarden Target-Forderungen der Bundesbank: Was steckt dahinter? ifo Schnelldienst, Vol. 71(14), 26–37.
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Sinn, H.-W. (2019a): Der Streit um die Targetsalden, Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Vol. 20(3), 170–217.
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Sinn, H.-W. (2019b): Der Streit um die Targetsalden – Kommentar zu Martin Hellwigs Artikel “Target-Falle oder Empörungsfalle?”, ifo Working Papers No. 316, 1–100.
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Sinn, H.-W. (2020): The Economics of Target Balances – From Lehman to Corona, Springer Nature.
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Sinn, H.-W./Wollmershäuser, T. (2012): Target Loans, Current Account Balances and Capital Flows: The ECB’s Rescue Facility, International Tax and Public Finance, Vol. 19(4), 468–508.
Google Scholar -
Spahn, P. (2019): Targetsalden und die Vollendung der Währungsunion, Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Vol. 20(2), 103–106.
Google Scholar -
van Suntum, U. (2019): Targetsalden und andere Risiken in der Europäischen Währungsunion. Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Vol. 20(2), 107–114.
Google Scholar -
Alvarez, I./Casavecchia, F./De Luca, M./Duering, A./Eser, F./Helmus, C./Hemous, C./Herrala, N./Jakovicka, J./Lo Russo, M./Pasqualone, F./Rubens, M./Soares, R./Zennaro, F. (2017): The Use of the Eurosystem’s Monetary Policy Instruments and Operational Framework Since 2012, ECB Occasional Paper, Vol. 188, May 2017.
Google Scholar -
Baldo, L./Hallinger, B./Helmus, C./Herrala, N./Martins, D./Mohing, F./Petroulakis, F./Resinek, M./Vergote, O./Usciati, B./Wang, Y. (2017): The Distribution of Excess Liquidity in the Euro Area, ECB Occasional Paper, Vol. 200, November 2017.
Google Scholar -
Bank for International Settlements (2003): Payment Systems in the Euro Area, https://www.bis.org/cpmi/paysys/ecbcomp.pdf. [Online; accessed 02-December-2021].
Google Scholar -
Bindseil, U./König, P. J. (2012): TARGET2 and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, Credit and Capital Markets, Vol. 45(2), 135-174.
Google Scholar -
Bundesverfassungsgericht (2016): Urteil des Zweiten Senats vom 21. Juni 2016, 2 BvE 13/13, Randnr. 99–102, 109. https://www.bundesverfassungsgericht.de/SharedDocs/Entscheidungen/DE/2016/06/rs20160621_2bvr272813.html. [Online; accessed 02-December-2021].
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Deutsche Bundesbank (2012): Stellungnahme vom 21.12.2012 im OMT-Verfahren vor dem Bundesverfassungsgericht, 2 BvR 1390. https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/799684/14bcbdeda81af076aa78e40891f0997a/mL/2012-12-%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%2021-omt-data.pdf. [Online; accessed 02-December-2021].
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Deutsche Bundesbank (2021b): The Two-Tier System for Reserve Remuneration and its Impact on Banks and Financial Markets, Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report, January 2021, 59–79.
Google Scholar -
Draghi, M. (2017): Letter to Mr Marco Valli and Mr Marco Zanni – Members of the European Parliament, Frankfurt a.M., 18 January 2017. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/170120letter_valli_zanni_1.en.pdf. [Online; accessed 02-December-2021].
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Eisenschmidt, J./Kedan, D./Schmitz, M./Adalid, R./Papsdorf, P. (2017): The Eurosystem’s Asset Purchase Programme and TARGET Balances, ECB Occasional Paper Series, Vol. 196, September 2017.
Google Scholar -
European Central Bank (2001): TARGET Annual Report. European Central Bank, Frankfurt a.M., May 2001.
Google Scholar -
European Central Bank (2004): Statute of the ESCB and of the ECB – Rules of Procedure. European Central Bank, Frankfurt a.M., 2004.
Google Scholar -
European Central Bank (2012): Guideline of the European Central Bank of 5 December 2012 on a Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross settlement Express Transfer System (TARGET2). Official Journal of the European Union.
Google Scholar -
European Central Bank (2016): Convergence Report, June 2016. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/conrep/cr201606.de.pdf. [Online; accessed 02-December-2021].
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European Central Bank (2020a): Asset Purchase Programmes. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omt/html/index.en.html. [Online; accessed 02-December-2021].
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European Central Bank (2020b): Balance of Payments and International Investment Position. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/balance_of_payments_and_external/balance_of_payments/html/index.en.html. [Online; accessed 02-December-2021].
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European Central Bank (2020d): Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/pepp/html/index.en.html. [Online; accessed 02-December-2021].
Google Scholar -
European Central Bank (2021): TARGET Annual Report. European Central Bank, Frankfurt a.M., May 2021.
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Federal Reserve System (2021): Financial Accounting Manual for Federal Reserve Banks. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, July 2021.
Google Scholar -
Fuest, C./Sinn, H. W. (2018a): Target-Risiken ohne Austritte, ifo Schnelldienst, Vol. 71(24), 15–25.
Google Scholar -
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Google Scholar -
German Council of Economic Experts (2018): Annual Report 2018/19 – Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. https://www.sachverstaendigenrat-wirtschaft.de/fileadmin/dateiablage/gutachten/jg201819/Chapter_4.pdf. [Online; accessed 02-December-2021].
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Google Scholar -
Hellwig, M./Schnabel, I. (2019a): Do Target Balances Create Risks for Taxpayers? Wirtschaftsdienst, Vol. 99(8), 553–561.
Google Scholar -
Hellwig, M./Schnabel, I. (2019b): Target Balances, Current Account Balances, Money Creation, Banks and Capital Markets, Wirtschaftsdienst, Vol. 99(9), 632–640.
Google Scholar -
Homburg, S. (2019): Targetsalden sind nicht empörend, sondern gefährlich, Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Vol. 20(2), 98–102.
Google Scholar -
Horst, M. J./Neyer, U. (2019): The Impact of Quantitative Easing on Bank Loan Supply and Monetary Policy Implementation in the Euro Area, Review of Economics, Vol. 70(3), 229–265.
Google Scholar -
Horst, M. J./Neyer, U./Stempel, D. (2020): Asymmetric Macroeconomic Effects of QE-Induced Increases in Excess Reserves in a Monetary Union, DICE Discussion Paper No. 346.
Google Scholar -
Siekmann, H. (2017): Die Einstandspflicht der Bundesrepublik Deutschland für die Deutsche Bundesbank und die Europäische Zentralbank, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt, Working Paper Series No. 120.
Google Scholar -
Sinn, H.-W. (2018): Fast 1.000 Milliarden Target-Forderungen der Bundesbank: Was steckt dahinter? ifo Schnelldienst, Vol. 71(14), 26–37.
Google Scholar -
Sinn, H.-W. (2019a): Der Streit um die Targetsalden, Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Vol. 20(3), 170–217.
Google Scholar -
Sinn, H.-W. (2019b): Der Streit um die Targetsalden – Kommentar zu Martin Hellwigs Artikel “Target-Falle oder Empörungsfalle?”, ifo Working Papers No. 316, 1–100.
Google Scholar -
Sinn, H.-W. (2020): The Economics of Target Balances – From Lehman to Corona, Springer Nature.
Google Scholar -
Sinn, H.-W./Wollmershäuser, T. (2012): Target Loans, Current Account Balances and Capital Flows: The ECB’s Rescue Facility, International Tax and Public Finance, Vol. 19(4), 468–508.
Google Scholar -
Spahn, P. (2019): Targetsalden und die Vollendung der Währungsunion, Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Vol. 20(2), 103–106.
Google Scholar -
van Suntum, U. (2019): Targetsalden und andere Risiken in der Europäischen Währungsunion. Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Vol. 20(2), 107–114.
Google Scholar
Abstract
Large increases in TARGET2 balances in the euro area since 2008 have led to concern and debate about the appropriate interpretation and policy reaction – in particular in TARGET2 creditor countries such as Germany. Against this background, we examine the main drivers of the increases and asymmetries in TARGET2 balances that have emerged in the context of the financial and sovereign debt crises as well as in the context of the Eurosystem’s implementation of quantitative easing (QE) and the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, this paper analyzes the potential risks for euro area member states in the case of (i) the unchanged continuity of the monetary union, (ii) the withdrawal of a member state with (large) TARGET2 liabilities, and (iii) the break-up of the whole monetary union. Depending on the outcome of exit negotiations and the operational handling, there can be direct risks in the form of default losses of TARGET2 balances and indirect risks in the form of threat potentials if TARGET2 debtor countries pretend to plan to leave the euro area. Based on this, we discuss adaption options for the TARGET2 payment system and consider an exit from the ECB’s accommodative monetary policy in order to scale back the high amount of excess liquidity in the euro area banking sector which is the prerequisite for the emergence of TARGET2 balances.