Menu Expand



Illing, G. Schuldendynamik am Immobilienmarkt – Vom Kreditboom zur Stagnation?. Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, 91(1), 29-40.
Illing, Gerhard "Schuldendynamik am Immobilienmarkt – Vom Kreditboom zur Stagnation?" Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 91.1, 2022, 29-40.
Illing, Gerhard (2022): Schuldendynamik am Immobilienmarkt – Vom Kreditboom zur Stagnation?, in: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 91, iss. 1, 29-40, [online]


Schuldendynamik am Immobilienmarkt – Vom Kreditboom zur Stagnation?

Illing, Gerhard

Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. 91 (2022), Iss. 1 : pp. 29–40

Additional Information

Article Details

Author Details

Prof. Gerhard Illing, Seminar für Makroökonomie, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

  • Gerhard Illing, Dr. rer. pol., ist Professor an der Volkswirtschaftlichen Fakultät an der Ludwig Maximilians Universität München und leitete dort bis September 2021 das Seminar für Makroökonomie. Seine Forschungsschwerpunkte sind Geldtheorie und Geldpolitik, Finanzmarktstabilität, Bankenregulierung sowie systemische Risiken.
  • Email
  • Search in Google Scholar


  1. Duca, J., J. Muellbauer und A. Murphy (2021): What Drives House Price Cycles? International Experience and Policy Issues. Journal of Economic Literature, 59(3), 773 – 864.  Google Scholar
  2. Illing, G., Y. Ono und M. Schlegl (2018): Credit booms, debt overhang and secular stagnation. European Economic Review, 108, 78 – 104.  Google Scholar
  3. Jordà, O., M. Schularick und A. M. Taylor (2016): The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles. Economic Policy, 31 (85), 107 – 152.  Google Scholar
  4. Mian, A. und A. Sufi (2021): Credit Supply and Housing Speculation. The Review of Financial Studies, hhab034.  Google Scholar
  5. Mian A., L. Straub und A. Sufi (2021): Indebted Demand. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 136 (4), 2243 – 2307.  Google Scholar
  6. OECD (2021): OECD Economic Outlook No. 109 (Edition 2021/1). OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).  Google Scholar
  7. Romer, P. (2010): Technologies, Rules, and Progress: The Case for Charter Cities, Center for Global Development.  Google Scholar
  8. Thünen, H. von (1826), Der Isolierte Staat in Beziehung auf Landwirtschaft und Nationalökonomie. Hamburg, Perthes.  Google Scholar


A typical feature of recent financial crises is a strong synchronization of credit in the private real estate market with real estate prices. The paper examines the relationship between real estate prices, debt, financial crises, and fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Since real estate evaluation plays a key role in lending, complex dynamics with feedback effects emerge. These dynamics do not only amplify fluctuations via overshooting in the real estate market. They can also result in boom-and-bust phases for the overall economy, endangering the stability of the financial system and possibly triggering long-term stagnation. Macro-prudential measures are needed to dampen these dynamics, thus enabling a more robust financial system.