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Schuldendynamik am Immobilienmarkt – Vom Kreditboom zur Stagnation?
Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. 91 (2022), Iss. 1 : pp. 29–40
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Prof. Gerhard Illing, Seminar für Makroökonomie, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
- Gerhard Illing, Dr. rer. pol., ist Professor an der Volkswirtschaftlichen Fakultät an der Ludwig Maximilians Universität München und leitete dort bis September 2021 das Seminar für Makroökonomie. Seine Forschungsschwerpunkte sind Geldtheorie und Geldpolitik, Finanzmarktstabilität, Bankenregulierung sowie systemische Risiken.
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Abstract
A typical feature of recent financial crises is a strong synchronization of credit in the private real estate market with real estate prices. The paper examines the relationship between real estate prices, debt, financial crises, and fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Since real estate evaluation plays a key role in lending, complex dynamics with feedback effects emerge. These dynamics do not only amplify fluctuations via overshooting in the real estate market. They can also result in boom-and-bust phases for the overall economy, endangering the stability of the financial system and possibly triggering long-term stagnation. Macro-prudential measures are needed to dampen these dynamics, thus enabling a more robust financial system.