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Zeitenwende bei Inflation und Zinsen
Demary, Markus | Zdrzalek, Jonas
Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. 91 (2022), Iss. 2 : pp. 13–24
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Markus Demary, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft
- Markus Demary ist Senior Economist im Kompetenzfeld Finanz- und Immobilienmärkte am Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft. Seine Forschungsschwerpunkte sind Geldpolitik und Finanzmärkte. Er hat einen Lehrauftrag im Fach Behavioral Finance an der Universität Ulm. Markus Demary hat Volkswirtschaftslehre an der Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn studiert und an der Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel promoviert.
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Jonas Zdrzalek, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft und Universität zu Köln
- Jonas Zdrzalek ist Referent für Finanz- und Immobilienmärkte am Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft und Doktorand an der Universität zu Köln. Seine Forschungsinteressen liegen in den Bereichen Finanzmärkte, Makroökonomie und Ökonometrie.
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References
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Abstract
Supply shortages in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war against Ukraine have contributed to a resurgence in inflation rates. We argue that the following six structural factors have strengthened. This is why inflation and also higher interest rates are not only temporary, but possible again in the medium term: de-globalization, decarbonization, demographic development, digitalization, government spending and monetary policy. Investments in transformation, higher defense spending and the reconstruction of Ukraine are central to this. These will increase demand for raw materials and labor, which is likely to lead to price reactions. At the same time, the high investment demand will contribute to higher real interest rates. It is possible that the European Central Bank (ECB) will have to slow economic activity or even initiate a recession in order to prevent a loss of confidence in its inflation targeting strategy by destabilizing inflation expectations. In the longer term, however, this environment of higher inflation and higher real interest rates could move key monetary policy rates away from the zero bound and lead to a normalization of monetary policy with a higher focus on preventing high inflation and less focus on preventing low inflation.