Die Substitution fossiler Energieträger – die Analyse wirtschaftlicher Kurz- und Langfristwirkungen
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Die Substitution fossiler Energieträger – die Analyse wirtschaftlicher Kurz- und Langfristwirkungen
Mittnik, Stefan | Semmler, Willi
Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. 91 (2022), Iss. 3 : pp. 11–44
3 Citations (CrossRef)
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Stefan Mittnik, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
- Stefan Mittnik, Prof. Dr., war von 2003 bis 2020 Inhaber des Lehrstuhls für Finanzökonometrie an der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität in München und leitete dort ab 2007 zudem das Center for Quantitative Risk Analysis. Zuvor lehrte er in New York (1987 – 1994) und Kiel (1994 – 2003). Seine Forschungsschwerpunkte liegen auf den Gebieten der empirischen und methodischen Finanzmarktforschung sowie der Interaktion zwischen Finanz- und Realwirtschaft. Nach Studium an der TU Berlin (Wirtschaftsingenieur), der University of Sussex, England (Entwicklungsökonomie) wurde er an der Washington University, USA in Volkswirtschaftslehre und angewandter Mathematik promoviert. Er hatte Gastprofessuren in Amsterdam, Lancaster, Lemberg, Kiew, New York, St. Louis, Tiflis und Wien inne und etablierte mit Förderung des Deutschen Akademischen Austauschdienstes (DAAD) einen Studiengang der Versicherungswirtschaft an der Universität Abomey-Calavi in Benin, West-Afrika. Er wurde in den USA mit der Fulbright-Ehrenprofessur (2004) sowie der Theodor-Heuss-Ehrenprofessur (2012) ausgezeichnet und erhielt in 2008 die Ehrendoktorwürde der Universität der Zentralbank der Ukraine. Er war Forschungsdirektor am Ifo-Institut in München sowie Mitglied des Fachkollegiums „Wirtschaftswissenschaften“ der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft und des Wissenschaftlichen Beirats der Deutschen Bundesbank.
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Willi Semmler, The New School for Social Research und Universität Bielefeld
- Willi Semmler ist Arnhold Professor of International Cooperation and Development an der New School for Social Research, New York, und war Professor an der American University, Washington DC und der Universität Bielefeld. Er ist Ehrendoktor der American University Europe-Fon und war Evaluator von Forschungsprojekten für die EU-Kommission und Visiting Scholar bei der EZB und dem IWF, während er für das IEO-IMF arbeitete. Er ist außerdem Senior Researcher am IIASA, Research Associate bei La Sapienza, Rom, und Associate Editor der Zeitschrift Econometrics and Statistics. Er forscht zu Empirischer Makroökonomie, Finanzökonomie und Ökonomie des Klimawandels. Er hat zahlreiche Zeitschriften- und Buchveröffentlichungen und seine Forschung ist in Publikationen der Weltbank, des IWF, der EZB und der ILO erschienen. Er ist zusammen mit Stefan Mittnik Herausgeber einer Springer-Buchreihe und Mitautor eines in Kürze im Springer-Verlag erscheinenden Buches mit dem Titel Sustainable Macroeconomics, Climate Risks and Energy Transition – Dynamic Modeling, Empirics, and Policies.
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Cited By
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Deindustrialisierung, Transformation und eine moderne Industriepolitik
Brandt, Arno | Krämer, HagenWirtschaftsdienst, Vol. 102 (2023), Iss. 12 P.918
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10273-022-3337-7 [Citations: 1] -
Time Scales of the Low-Carbon Transition: A Data-Driven Dynamic Multi-Sector Growth Model
Vallès Codina, Oriol | Semmler, WilliJahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Vol. 244 (2024), Iss. 3 P.169
https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2023-0040 [Citations: 0] -
Sustainable Macroeconomics, Climate Risks and Energy Transitions
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Nyambuu, Unurjargal | Semmler, Willi2023
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-27982-9_11 [Citations: 0]
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Abstract
Recent controversies over the impact of an energy embargo on Russia triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine have focused on reducing dependence on fossil fuels and reorganizing energy supplies. Economists have come up with very different predictions about the consequences of such an embargo. However, the empirical basis and the extent of output losses remain unclear – also in terms of whether the predicted losses refer to the level of output or its future growth rates. Moreover, the period and duration of the predicted losses are not or insufficiently specified. Furthermore, it is not explained how the size and dynamics of the losses depend on the state of the economy. Substituting fossil fuels with renewables has long been an important policy perspective of the EU and its member states. Reliable economic impact assessments of both a short-term embargo and longer-term decarbonization are important prerequisites for the implementation of comprehensive policy measures.
In the following, we present a model-based econometric framework for such an analysis in order to estimate both the short-term effects in terms of fossil energy shortages and long-term effects of different climate policy measures on individual sectors of the economy. The background for our work is a multisectoral growth model, which has been studied in detail elsewhere. We limit ourselves here to an empirically oriented analysis based on multisector input-output tables for Germany and other countries, drawing on more recent input-output analysis as well as econometric and macrodynamic work. For simplicity, the multisector model is reduced to two sectors. The short-term consequences of an energy shock are examined using a nonlinear multi-regime VAR model. The long-term consequences of a decarbonization of the economy are explored using composite policy shocks applied to a VAR model. Here, the results indicate positive effects on production and employment, especially in the long run.