JOURNAL ARTICLE
Cite JOURNAL ARTICLE
Style
Format
Qualität und Effizienz der Gewinnprognosen von Analysten
Eine empirische Untersuchung für den deutschen Kapitalmarkt
Bessler, Wolfgang | Stanzel, Matthias
Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 40 (2007), Iss. 1 : pp. 89–129
1 Citations (CrossRef)
Additional Information
Article Details
Author Details
Wolfgang Bessler, Gießen
Matthias Stanzel, Gießen
Cited By
-
Transdisciplinarity in Financial Communication
Approach Three: Process Perspective
Whitehouse, Marlies
2023
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-29115-9_6 [Citations: 0]
References
-
Abarbanell, Jeffrey S./Bernhard, Victor L. (1992): Test of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behaviour, Journal of Finance 47, 1181-1207.
Google Scholar -
Ali, Ashiq/Klein, April/Rosenfeld, James (1992): Analysts' Use of Information about Permanent and Transitory Earnings Components in Forecasting Annual EPS, The Accounting Review 67, 183-198.
Google Scholar -
Baldwin, Bruce A. (1984): Segment Earnings Disclosure and the Ability of Security Analysts to Forecast Earnings per Share, The Accounting Review 59, 376-389.
Google Scholar -
Barron, Orie E./Byard, Donald/Kile, Charles/Riedl, Edward J. (2001): High-Technology Intangibles and Analysts' Forecasts, Journal of Accounting Research 40, 289-311.
Google Scholar -
Bessler, Wolfgang/Stanzel, Matthias (2006a): Die Rolle der Wertpapieranalysten am Neuen Markt, Bessler, W. (Hrsg.), Börsen, Banken und Kapitalmärkte - Festschrift für Hartmut Schmidt zum 65. Geburtstag, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin.
Google Scholar
Abstract
Quality and Efficiency of Earnings Forecasts of Analysts
An Empirical Study for the German Stock Market
This study analyzes the quality of earnings forecasts of individual analysts as well as the efficiency of these forecasts relative to a naive random walk forecast model. The sample consists of 171.281 earnings forecasts for firms listed on the German stock exchange. The empirical results for the period from 1995 to 2004 indicate that financial analysts provide earnings forecasts that are only partially superior to the naïve forecast model. On average, earnings forecasts of financial analysts are inaccurate and biased. However, the forecasts are at least superior up to a forecast horizon of approximately 12 to 15 months. In general, analysts for the German stock market are overoptimistic and overreact to new information. In addition, we observe a significant impact on the results from specific factors such as the forecast horizon, the calendar and fiscal year as well as the industry. Moreover, a change in company earnings affects the results significantly. Moreover, we observe an earnings game between analyst and the management of the firm. Although forecast of the analysts are to some extent of higher quality than the ones derived from a naive forecast model, they must be characterized as conditionally inefficient. This means that financial analysts do not include all information available from the naive model in their earnings forecasts.