Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Asymmetry in Germany
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Cite JOURNAL ARTICLE
Style
Format
Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Asymmetry in Germany
Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 33 (2000), Iss. 2 : pp. 182–197
1 Citations (CrossRef)
Additional Information
Article Details
Author Details
Jan Kakes, Amsterdam
Cited By
-
Économétrie des modèles à changement de régimes : un essai de synthèse
Uctum, Remzi
L'Actualité économique, Vol. 83 (2008), Iss. 4 P.447
https://doi.org/10.7202/019389ar [Citations: 0]
References
-
Audretsch, D. B./Elston, J. A. (1994): Does firm size matter? Evidence on the impacts of liquiduty constraints on firm investment behaviour in Germany, CEPR Discussion Paper # 1072, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.
Google Scholar -
Azariadis, C./Smith, B. (1998): Financial intermediation and regime switching in business cycles. American Economic Review, 88: 516-536.
Google Scholar -
Ball, L./Mankiw, N. G. (1994): Asymmetric price adjustment and economic fluctuations. Economic Journal, 104: 247-261.
Google Scholar -
Bernanke, B./Gertler, M. (1989): Agency costs, net worth, and business cycles. American Economic Review, 79: 14-31.
Google Scholar -
Boldin, M. D. (1992): Using switching models to study business cycle asymmetries: I. overview of methodology and application. mimeo, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Google Scholar -
Boldin, M. D. (1994a): Does the link between money and output differ over the business cycle? mimeo, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Google Scholar -
Bond, S./Elston, J./ Mairesse, J./Mulkay, B. (1997): Financial factors and investment in Belgium, France, Germany and the UK, NBER Working Paper # 5900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
Google Scholar -
Clarida, R./Gertler, M. (1996): How the Bundesbank conducts monetary policy. NBER Working Paper # 5581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
Google Scholar -
Cover, J. P. (1992): Asymmetric effects of positive and negative money-supply shocks. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107: 1261-1282.
Google Scholar -
De Bondt, G. J. (2000): Credit channels and consumption: European evidence. Financial Structure and Monetary Transmission in Europe. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
Google Scholar -
Dominguez, K. M. E. (1997): Do the G-3 countries coordinate monetary policy? In: B. J. Cohen (ed.): International trade and finance: new frontiers for research. Essays in honor of Peter B. Kenen. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Google Scholar -
Elston, J. A. (1996): Investment, liquidity con- straints and bank relationships: evidence from German manufacturing firms, CEPR Discussion Paper # 1329, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.
Google Scholar -
Evans, P. (1986): Does the potency of monetary policy vary with capacity utilization? Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 24: 303-332.
Google Scholar -
Garcia, R./Schaller, H. (1995): Are the effects of monetary policy asymmetric? presented at the EEA congress, Prague, the Czech Republic.
Google Scholar -
Gertler, M./Gilchrist, S. (1994): Monetary policy, business cycles, and the behavior of small manufacturing firms. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109: 309-340.
Google Scholar -
Guender, A./Moersch, M. (1997): On the existence of a credit channel of monetary policy in Germany. Kredit und Kapital, 30: 173-185.
Google Scholar -
Hamilton, J. D. (1989): A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57: 357-384.
Google Scholar -
Kaldor, N. (1961): Capital accumulation and economic growth. In F. A. Lutz and D. C. Hague (eds.): The Theory of Capital. MacMillan, London, chapter 10, p. 177-222.
Google Scholar -
Karras, G. (1996a): Are the output effects of monetary policy asymmetric? evidence from a sample of European countries. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 58: 267-278.
Google Scholar -
Karras, G. (1996b): Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? convex aggregate supply or ‘pushing on a string’?, Journal of Macroeconomics, 18, p. 605-619. -- Keynes, J. M. (1936): The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Macmillan, London.
Google Scholar -
Lindlar, L./Scheremet, W. (1998): Germany’s slump. Explaining the unemployment crisis of the 1990s. Discussion Paper no. 166, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin.
Google Scholar -
Maier, P. (1999): Pressure on the Bundesbank? Working Document no. 4, Duitsland Instituut, Amsterdam.
Google Scholar -
Morgan, D. P. (1993): Asymmetric effects of monetary policy. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, p. 21-33, second quarter.
Google Scholar -
Thoma, M. A. (1994): Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality. Journal of Econometrics, 64: 279-306.
Google Scholar -
Van Bergeijk, P. A. G./Haffner, R. C. G. (1993): Privatization, deregulation and the macroeconomy. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
Google Scholar
Abstract
Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Asymmetry in Germany
In this paper, we investigate whether the impact of monetary policy on industrial production in Germany is larger in a recession than during a boom. Using a two-state Markov Switching Model to separate recessions and expansions, and three different policy indicators, we find strong evidence of asymmetric effects of monetary policy over the business cycle. Our findings imply that standard linear approaches, such as VAR models, ignore important time-varying aspects of the monetary transmission mechanism. (JEL E32, E52)