Der konjunkturneutrale Haushalt als Element einer wirtschaftspolitischen Konzeption

Abstract

The Cyclically Neutral Budget as an Element of an Economic Policy Conception

If the conception of a cyclically neutral budget advanced by the Council of Experts is considered in conjunction with the medium-range orientation of behaviour propagated by the Council of Experts, it assumes the character of an “educational” model intended to persuade public authorities to orient selection of stabilization policy measures to their long-range allocation objectives. The revelation of this interconnection of necessary short-term action and long-range objectives might, in its turn, set an example for a reorientation of modes of behaviour of other groups participating in the economic process. Where stability problems are essentially a result of distribution conflicts and the latter emanate from group behavior that reacts to market signals, breaking away from market signals by way of medium-term interpretation of group goals might facilitate the task of stabilization policy and enhance the chances of attainment of longer-range objectives of public authorities. In this sense, too, the concept of a cyclically neutral budget would be an ‘educational’ model. A reorientation of the modes of behaviour of the autonomous groups is possible, however, only if the divergences in long-range objectives can be reconciled with each other at a level other than that of wage conflict. However, the plane of redistribution of wealth increments proposed by the Council of Experts is a dubious equivalent of wage conflict: what is necessary is rather a bundle of substitution strategies aimed at a change in scope. If no such bundle is available, there is no basis for a medium-range orientation of behaviour. On the other hand, the less the autonomous groups relieve public authorities of the task of stabilization policy, the smaller are the chances of interlinking necessary short-term action with long-range objectives in the public sector.