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Smant, D., Melger, J. Monetary and Non-Monetary Analyses of Inflation in a Small Open Country. Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, 30(1), 52-80.
Smant, David J. C. and Melger, Jeroen "Monetary and Non-Monetary Analyses of Inflation in a Small Open Country" Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital 30.1, 1997, 52-80.
Smant, David J. C./Melger, Jeroen (1997): Monetary and Non-Monetary Analyses of Inflation in a Small Open Country, in: Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, vol. 30, iss. 1, 52-80, [online]


Monetary and Non-Monetary Analyses of Inflation in a Small Open Country

Smant, David J. C. | Melger, Jeroen

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 30 (1997), Iss. 1 : pp. 52–80

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David J. C. Smant, Rotterdam

Jeroen Melger, Rotterdam


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Monetary and Non-Monetary Analyses of Inflation in a Small Open Country

This paper (re)evaluates monetary and non-monetary inflation models for the Netherlands. In particular, we examine whether a P-star model - representing a textbook macroeconomic relationship between money and prices - should be rejected in favour of a popular socio-political model based on cost-push factors. We argue that the P-star model can be used for a small economy with fixed exchange rates and conclude that the P-star model need not be rejected on theoretical grounds. We also show that based on in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting the monetary model is not outperformed by the socio-political model. Thus, the P-star model need not be rejected on empirical grounds. Basic monetary economics suggests that we should prefer the monetary inflation model. We conclude with some observations on the political-economy aspects of the public debate on inflation and its determinants