Menu Expand

Monetary Targeting in the EMU: Lessons from the United States

Cite JOURNAL ARTICLE

Style

Arnold, I. Monetary Targeting in the EMU: Lessons from the United States. Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, 30(3), 348-368. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.30.3.348
Arnold, Ivo J. M. "Monetary Targeting in the EMU: Lessons from the United States" Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital 30.3, 1997, 348-368. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.30.3.348
Arnold, Ivo J. M. (1997): Monetary Targeting in the EMU: Lessons from the United States, in: Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, vol. 30, iss. 3, 348-368, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.30.3.348

Format

Monetary Targeting in the EMU: Lessons from the United States

Arnold, Ivo J. M.

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 30 (1997), Iss. 3 : pp. 348–368

1 Citations (CrossRef)

Additional Information

Article Details

Author Details

Ivo J. M. Arnold, Breukelen

Cited By

  1. Analyse dynamique de la convergence des comportements de demande de monnaie en Europe*

    Lecarpentier-Moyal, Sylvie

    Renou-Maissant, Patricia

    L'Actualité économique, Vol. 83 (2008), Iss. 3 P.321

    https://doi.org/10.7202/018113ar [Citations: 1]

References

  1. Alders, K., Koedijk, K., Kool, C. and Winder, C. (1996): The best way to EMU: summary of the panel discussion, in: Alders, K., Koedijk, K., Kool, C. and Winder, C., Monetary policy in a converging Europe, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 139.  Google Scholar
  2. Angeloni, I., Cottarelli, C. and Levy, A. (1992): Cross-border deposits and monetary aggregates in the transition to EMU, Temi di discussione Banca D’Italia, 163.  Google Scholar
  3. Arnold, I. J. M. (1992): The derivation of the liquidity ratio in the EMS: comment on Kremers and Lane, IMF Staff Papers, 39 (1), 195 - 202. - Arnold, I. J. M. (1994): The myth of a stable European money demand, Open economies review, vol. 5, no. 3, 249 - 259.  Google Scholar
  4. Arnold, I. J. M. (1996): Fallacies in the interpretation of European monetary aggregates, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, forthcoming 1996.  Google Scholar
  5. Artis, M. J. (1992): Monetary policy in stage two of EMU, what can we learn from the 1980s?, CEPR Discussion Paper Series, 629.  Google Scholar
  6. Artis, M. J., Bladen-Hovell, R. C. and Zhang, W. (1993): A European money demand function, P.R. Masson and M.P. Taylor (eds.) Policy issues in the operation of currency unions, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 24-2063.  Google Scholar
  7. Barr, D. (1992): The demand for money in Europe, comment on Kremers and Lane, IMF Staff Papers, 39 (3), 718-729.  Google Scholar
  8. Bayoumi, T. and Kenen, P. (1992): Using an EC-wide monetary aggregate in stage two of EMU, IMF working paper, 92 (56).  Google Scholar
  9. Bekx, P. and Tullio, G. (1989): A note on the European monetary system and the determination of the DM-dollar exchange rate, Cahiers Economique de Bruxelles, 123 (3).  Google Scholar
  10. Bundesbank (1994): Annual report, Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt.  Google Scholar
  11. Cassard, M., Lane, T. and Masson, P. R. (1994): ERM money supplies and the transition to EMU, IMF Working Paper, 94 (1).  Google Scholar
  12. Den Butter, F. G. and Dijken, S. van (1995): Gedesaggregeerde en geaggregeerde geldvraag in de EMU, Maandschrift Economie, jaargang 59.  Google Scholar
  13. Eijffinger, S. C. W. (1996): Future European monetary policy, inaugural lecture, Humboldt Universität Berlin, 31 May 1996.  Google Scholar
  14. Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. (1987): Co-integration and error-correction: representation, estimation and testing, Econometrica, 35, 251-276.  Google Scholar
  15. Falk, M. and Funke, N. (1995): The stability of money demand in Germany and in the EMS: impact of German unification, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 470-488.  Google Scholar
  16. Fase, M. M. G. and Winder, C. C. A. (1993): The demand for money in the Netherlands and the other EC countries, De Economist, 141 (4), 1993, 471-496.  Google Scholar
  17. Fase, M. M. G. and Winder C. C. A. (1994): Money demand within EMU: an analysis with the Divisia measure, De Nederlandsche Bank, Quarterly Bulletin, 1994 (3), 25 - 55.  Google Scholar
  18. Giovannini, A. (1991): Money demand and monetary control in an integrated European economy, European Economy, special edition (1), Chapter 5.  Google Scholar
  19. Goodhart, C. (1989): The conduct of monetary policy, Economic Journal, vol. 99, 293 - 346.  Google Scholar
  20. Haldane, A. (1996): Some thoughts on inflation targeting, Paper prepared for the Konstanz Seminar on Monetary Theory and Policy, June 1996.  Google Scholar
  21. Ireland, P. (1991): Financial evolution and the long-run behaviour of velocity: new evidence from U.S. regional data, Economic Review Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 77, no. 6, 16-26.  Google Scholar
  22. Issing, O. (1994): Monetary policy strategy in the EMU, in: J. O. De Beaufort Wijnholds, S. C. W. Eijffinger and L. H. Hoogduin, A framework for monetary stability, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1994, 135 - 148.  Google Scholar
  23. Kremers, J. J. M., Ericsson, N. R. and Dolado, J. J. (1992): The power of cointegration tests, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54, 325 - 348.  Google Scholar
  24. Kremers, J. J. M. and Lane, T. (1990): Economic and Monetary Integration and the Aggregate Demand for Money in the EMS, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 37, no. 4, 777-805.  Google Scholar
  25. Kremers, J. J. M. and Lane, T. (1992): The derivation of the liquidity ratio in the EMS: reply to Arnold, IMF Staff Papers, 39 (1), 203 - 207.  Google Scholar
  26. Lane, T. and Poloz, S. (1992): Currency substitution and cross-border monetary aggregation: evidence from the G7, IMF Working Paper, 92 (81).  Google Scholar
  27. Lucas, R. E. (1976): Econometric policy evaluations: a critique, in: K. Brunner and A. H. Meltzer, The Phillips curve and labor markets, North- Holland, Amsterdam, 19-46.  Google Scholar
  28. Mizen, P. and Pentecost, E. J. (1994): Evaluating the empirical evidence for currency substitution: a case study of the demand for sterling in Europe, The Economic Journal, 104, September, 1057 - 1069.  Google Scholar
  29. Monticelli, C. and Strauss-Kahn, M.-O. (1992): European integration and the demand for broad money, BIS Working Paper, (18).  Google Scholar
  30. Monticelli, C. (1993): All the money in Europe: an investigation of the economic properties of EC-wide extended monetary aggregates, BIS Working Paper, (19).  Google Scholar
  31. Mulligan, C. B. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (1992): U.S. money demand: surprising cross-sectional estimates, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 2, 285 - 343.  Google Scholar
  32. Rother, P. C. (1996): European monetary integration and the demand for money, Paper prepared for the Konstanz Seminar on Monetary Theory and Policy, June 1996.  Google Scholar
  33. Thornton, D. L. and Stone, C.C. (1992): Financial innovation: causes and consequences, in K. Dowd and M.K. Lewis, Current issues in financial and monetary economis, MacMillan, 81 - 109.  Google Scholar
  34. Von Hagen, J. (1995): Inflation and monetary targeting in Germany, in L. Leiderman and L. E. O. Svensson, Inflation targets, Center for Economic Policy Research, 107-121.  Google Scholar
  35. Van Riet, A. G. (1992): European integration and the demand for money in the EC, De Nederlandsche Bank, Quarterly Bulletin, 1992 (3), 33-43.  Google Scholar
  36. Van Riet, A. G. (1993): Studies of EC money demand: survey and assessment, De Nederlandsche Bank, Quarterly Bulletin, 1992 (4), 63-75.  Google Scholar
  37. Wesche, K. (1996): The stability of European money demand: an investigation of M3H, Paper prepared for the Konstanz Seminar on Monetary Theory and Policy, June 1996.  Google Scholar

Abstract

Monetary Targeting in the EMU: Lessons from the United States

The economic arguments in favour of monetary targeting at the start of the stage three of EMU are based on the presumed stability of European money demand and the effect of monetary targets on the credibility of central banks. Regional data from the United States show monetary aggregates to move closely together inside a monetary union. In contrast, the stability of constructed European monetary aggregates is caused by a lack of comovement between monetary aggregates in European countries. This comparison suggests that presently available European money demand studies may overestimate money demand stability in the future EMU by more than 30%. The paper therefore cautions against extrapolating empirical findings on European money demand stability to stage three. Given the uncertainties surrounding European money demand, the case for implementing monetary targeting right at the start of EMU rests solely on the presumed credibility effect of announcing targets for money supply growth.