Monetary Targeting in the EMU: Lessons from the United States
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Monetary Targeting in the EMU: Lessons from the United States
Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 30 (1997), Iss. 3 : pp. 348–368
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Ivo J. M. Arnold, Breukelen
Cited By
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Analyse dynamique de la convergence des comportements de demande de monnaie en Europe*
Lecarpentier-Moyal, Sylvie
Renou-Maissant, Patricia
L'Actualité économique, Vol. 83 (2008), Iss. 3 P.321
https://doi.org/10.7202/018113ar [Citations: 1]
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Abstract
Monetary Targeting in the EMU: Lessons from the United States
The economic arguments in favour of monetary targeting at the start of the stage three of EMU are based on the presumed stability of European money demand and the effect of monetary targets on the credibility of central banks. Regional data from the United States show monetary aggregates to move closely together inside a monetary union. In contrast, the stability of constructed European monetary aggregates is caused by a lack of comovement between monetary aggregates in European countries. This comparison suggests that presently available European money demand studies may overestimate money demand stability in the future EMU by more than 30%. The paper therefore cautions against extrapolating empirical findings on European money demand stability to stage three. Given the uncertainties surrounding European money demand, the case for implementing monetary targeting right at the start of EMU rests solely on the presumed credibility effect of announcing targets for money supply growth.