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Geldmengenziele und diskretionäre Elemente der Politik der Bundesbank
Eine empirische Untersuchung
Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 29 (1996), Iss. 1 : pp. 54–89
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Dieter Schultes, Solingen
References
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Abstract
Money Supply Targets and Discretionary Elements of Bundesbank Policies. An Empirical Study
This study focuses on whether monetary policy includes shorter-term discretionary elements in spite of money supply regulation. Assuming that derogations from the announced money supply targets are - except in cases of stochastic control errors - intentional insofar as monetary policy is concerned, it ought to be possible to prove the existence of a stable correlation between the observed derogations and the changes in the Bundesbank’s macroeconomic target variables. Since the intermediate monetary target is managed via money-market interest rates, monetary-policy responses to undesired changes in target variables ought to be directly reflected by variations of these control variables. Instead of estimating multiple regressions, it is studied whether there is a “causality” within the meaning of the Wiener/Granger theory between the control variables and the monetary-policy target variables. The results suggest that the Bundesbank -in spite of the stress it lays on its announced money supply targets - pursues a discretionary policy in the shorter term besides a potential-oriented one. Noteworthy is a marked lag in the response to changes observed in the level of prices.