JOURNAL ARTICLE
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Zinsstruktur und Wirtschaftswachstum
Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 27 (1994), Iss. 1 : pp. 11–29
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Joachim Ragnitz, Wiesbaden
References
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Browne, F./Manasse, P.: The Information Content of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Theory and Evidence, in: OECD Economic Studies No. 14, 1990, S. 59-86.
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Abstract
Interest Rate Structure and Economic Growth
Empirical studies show that the interest rate structure includes suitable elements for forecasting real economic growth. This contribution discusses possible explanations of the close correlation of the two quantities. Based on the expectation theory for the interest rate structure, this contribution shows that it is not the interest rate structure, but rather the interest rate level which determines the dynamism of demand in the future. The visible correlation of the interest rate structure with economic growth is to be explained by the fact that changes in short-term interest rates do not to the same extent occasion adaptations of longterm interest rates which typically means a steep interest structure curve in the case of low interest rate levels and an inverse interest structure curve in the case of high interest rate levels. Where the influence of monetary policy on the development of short-term interest rates is strong, the interest rate structure is to be interpreted mainly as an indicator of the monetary-policy course. But interest structure-based indicators are not appropriate as target figures in monetary policy because the central bank lacks the necessary control possibilities.