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Die Zinsstruktur als Indikator der Geldpolitik?

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Hesse, H., Roth, G. Die Zinsstruktur als Indikator der Geldpolitik?. Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, 25(1), 1-25. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.25.1.1
Hesse, Helmut and Roth, Gisela "Die Zinsstruktur als Indikator der Geldpolitik?" Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital 25.1, 1992, 1-25. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.25.1.1
Hesse, Helmut/Roth, Gisela (1992): Die Zinsstruktur als Indikator der Geldpolitik?, in: Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, vol. 25, iss. 1, 1-25, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.25.1.1
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Die Zinsstruktur als Indikator der Geldpolitik?

Hesse, Helmut | Roth, Gisela

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 25 (1992), Iss. 1 : pp. 1–25

2 Citations (CrossRef)

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Publisher Name
Duncker & Humblot
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.25.1.1
Language
Multiple languages
Pages
25

Author Details

Helmut Hesse, Hannover

Gisela Roth, Hannover

Cited By

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    Guerrero Compeán, Roberto

    Ensayos Revista de Economía, Vol. 26 (2007), Iss. 1 P.45

    https://doi.org/10.29105/ensayos26.1-2 [Citations: 0]

  2. Prognostiziert die Zinsstruktur die Inflation in Deutschland?

    Hansen, Gerd

    Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 34 (2001), Iss. 4 P.554

    https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.34.4.554 [Citations: 0]

References

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  3. Belongia, M. T. and Koedijk, K. G. (1988): Testing the Expectations Model of the Term Structure: Some Conjectures on the Effects of Institutional Changes, in: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 70, No. 5, September/October 1988, S. 37 - 45.  Google Scholar
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  53. Tobin, J. (1974a): Inflation, Interest Rates, and Stock Values, in: The Morgan Guaranty Survey, January 1974, S.4-7.  Google Scholar
  54. Tobin, J. (1974b): Monetary Policy in 1974 and Beyond, in: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, 1974, S. 219 - 232.  Google Scholar
  55. Turnovsky, S. J. (1989): The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Effects of Macroeconomic Policy, in: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 21, No. 3, August 1989, S. 321 - 347.  Google Scholar
  56. Watson, M. W. (1991): Using Econometric Models to Predict Recessions, in: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Economic Perspectives, Vol. 15, No. 6, November/December 1991, S. 14 - 25.  Google Scholar
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  62. Belongia, M. T. and Koedijk, K. G. (1988): Testing the Expectations Model of the Term Structure: Some Conjectures on the Effects of Institutional Changes, in: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 70, No. 5, September/October 1988, S. 37 – 45.  Google Scholar
  63. Bernanke, B. S. (1990): On the Predictive Power of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Spreads, in: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, New England Economic Review, November/December 1990, S.51-68.  Google Scholar
  64. Bigler, M. (1988): Finanzinnovationen und Geldpolitik, Schlußfolgerungen aus einem erweiterten Finanzmarktmodell, in: Kredit und Kapital, 21. Jg., Heft 2, 1988, S. 221 – 242.  Google Scholar
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  82. Gebauer, W. (1988b): A Term Structure Approach to German Monetary Policy, Geld und Währung Working Paper der J. W. Goethe-Universität, Nr. 7, Frankfurt am Main 1988.  Google Scholar
  83. Gebauer, W. (1989): Zinsstrukturtheorie und Zentralbankpolitik, in: Bub, N. u.a. (Hrsg.), Geldwertsicherung und Wirtschaftsstabilität, Festschrift für Helmut Schlesinger zum 65. Geburtstag, Frankfurt am Main 1989, S. 71 – 86.  Google Scholar
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  85. Hardouvelis, G. A. (1988): The Predictive Power of the Term Structure During Recent Monetary Regimes, in: The Journal of Finance, Vol. 43, No. 2, June 1988, S. 339 – 356.  Google Scholar
  86. Haslag, J. H. (1990): Monetary Aggregates and the Rate of Inflation, in: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Economic Review,March 1990, S.1-12.  Google Scholar
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  91. Kugler, P. (1988): An Empirical Note on the Term Structure and Interest Rate Stabilization Policies, in: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 103, November 1988, S. 789 – 792.  Google Scholar
  92. Kuttner, K. N. (1990): Inflation and the Growth Rate of Money, in: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Economic Perspectives, Vol. 14, No. 1, January/February 1990, S.2 – 11.  Google Scholar
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  97. Lutz, F. A. (1973): Zins und Inflation, Walter Eucken Institut, Vorträge und Aufsätze Nr. 42, Tübingen 1973.  Google Scholar
  98. Mankiw, N. G. (1986): The Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited, in: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1, 1986, S. 61 – 96.  Google Scholar
  99. Mankiw, N. G. and Miron, J. A. (1986): The Changing Behaviour of the Term Structure of Interest Rates, in: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 101, No. 2, May 1986, S. 211 – 228.  Google Scholar
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  102. Mishkin, F. S. (1990): What Does the Term Structure Tell us about Future Inflation?, in: Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 25, No. 1, January 1990, S. 77 – 95.  Google Scholar
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  109. Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. (1989): New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators, in: National Bureau of Economic Research, Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Cambridge u.a. 1989, S. 351 – 394.  Google Scholar
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  111. Tobin, J. (1961): Monetary Theory: New and Old Looks, Money, Capital and Other Stores of Value, in: The American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 51, No. 2, May 1961, S. 26 – 37.  Google Scholar
  112. Tobin, J. (1974a): Inflation, Interest Rates, and Stock Values, in: The Morgan Guaranty Survey, January 1974, S.4-7.  Google Scholar
  113. Tobin, J. (1974b): Monetary Policy in 1974 and Beyond, in: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, 1974, S. 219 – 232.  Google Scholar
  114. Turnovsky, S. J. (1989): The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Effects of Macroeconomic Policy, in: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 21, No. 3, August 1989, S. 321 – 347.  Google Scholar
  115. Watson, M. W. (1991): Using Econometric Models to Predict Recessions, in: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Economic Perspectives, Vol. 15, No. 6, November/December 1991, S. 14 – 25.  Google Scholar
  116. Wenninger, J. (1990): Monetary Aggregates as Intermediate Targets, in: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Intermediate Targets and Indicators for Monetary Policy, A Critical Survey, New York, December 1990, S. 67 – 108.  Google Scholar
  117. Wicksell, K. (1898): Geldzins und Güterpreise, Eine Studie über die den Tauschwert des Geldes bestimmenden Ursachen, Jena 1898.  Google Scholar
  118. Wicksell, K. (1958): The Influence of the Rate of Interest on Commodity Prices, in: Selected Papers on Economic Theory, London 1958, S. 67-89.  Google Scholar

Abstract

The Interest Rate Structure as a Monetary Policy Indicator

This contribution analyzes whether the interest rate structure would be a suitable monetary policy indicator in Germany. A discussion has been going on in the United States for some time on whether the interest rate structure should, as an indicator, be preferred to money supply whose informatory value has been impaired by financial innovations. Empirical studies by the Federal Reserve Bank of the interrelationships between the interest rate structure and the Gross National Product in real terms as well as the level of prices have reached the conclusion for the United States of America that the interest rate structure is of great informatory value for future movements of both final goals of economic policy. There are three trends in economic theory that serve as the theoretical foundations ofanindicator that is based on the interest rate structure: The relation Q according to James Tobin, the theory of expectations for the interest rate structure according to Irving Fisher and the interest rate theory according to Knut Wicksell. The latter must be deemed to have been the real inventor of the theory that the interest rate structure can be used as an indicator, because it was he who fathered the opinion that monetary policy is effective through its influence on the ratio between two interest rates. Within the framework of a theoretical review of an indicator based on the interest rate structure, the hypothesis is made that this indicator is less prone to innovation than the money supply aggregates. This hypothesis, which must still be substantiated in academic terms, speaks in favour of the indicator based on the interest rate structure; the correctness of this view is doubtful mainly because its meaningfulness is limited by international capital movements. The empirical interrelationship between the interest rate structure and the Gross National Product is very close in the German case; the interrelationship between the interest rate structure and the level of prices is less close, however. The conclusion to be reached from this analysis is that the interest rate structure is no suitable indicator for German monetary policy. Inan economy whose main characteristic is strong international economic dependence, the limitation of the informatory function of the interest rate structure on account of international capital movements may not be neglected.

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Helmut Hesse/Gisela Roth: Die Zinsstruktur als Indikator der Geldpolitik? 1
I. Problemstellung 1
II. Abgrenzung des Indikatorbegriffs 1
III. Diskussionsbeiträge aus den Vereinigten Staaten 3
IV. Theoretische Überlegungen 7
1. Dogmengeschichtliche Entwicklungslinien 7
2. Theoretische Argumente für und wider die Zinsstruktur als geldpolitischen Indikator 11
V. Empirischer Zusammenhang zwischen der Zinsstruktur und den Endzielen 15
VI. Ausblick 19
Literaturverzeichnis 20
Zusammenfassung: Die Zinsstruktur als Indikator der Geldpolitik? 23
Summary: The Interest Rate Structure as a Monetary Policy Indicator 24
Résumé: La structure des intérêts est-elle un indicateur de la politique monétaire? 24

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