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Hesse, H., Roth, G. Die Zinsstruktur als Indikator der Geldpolitik?. Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, 25(1), 1-25. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.25.1.1
Hesse, Helmut and Roth, Gisela "Die Zinsstruktur als Indikator der Geldpolitik?" Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital 25.1, 1992, 1-25. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.25.1.1
Hesse, Helmut/Roth, Gisela (1992): Die Zinsstruktur als Indikator der Geldpolitik?, in: Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, vol. 25, iss. 1, 1-25, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.25.1.1

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Die Zinsstruktur als Indikator der Geldpolitik?

Hesse, Helmut | Roth, Gisela

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 25 (1992), Iss. 1 : pp. 1–25

1 Citations (CrossRef)

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Helmut Hesse, Hannover

Gisela Roth, Hannover

Cited By

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    Guerrero Compeán, Roberto

    Ensayos Revista de Economía, Vol. 26 (2007), Iss. 1 P.45

    https://doi.org/10.29105/ensayos26.1-2 [Citations: 0]

References

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  3. Belongia, M. T. and Koedijk, K. G. (1988): Testing the Expectations Model of the Term Structure: Some Conjectures on the Effects of Institutional Changes, in: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 70, No. 5, September/October 1988, S. 37 - 45.  Google Scholar
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  33. Kuttner, K. N. (1990): Inflation and the Growth Rate of Money, in: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Economic Perspectives, Vol. 14, No. 1, January/February 1990, S.2 - 11.  Google Scholar
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  55. Turnovsky, S. J. (1989): The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Effects of Macroeconomic Policy, in: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 21, No. 3, August 1989, S. 321 - 347.  Google Scholar
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  62. Belongia, M. T. and Koedijk, K. G. (1988): Testing the Expectations Model of the Term Structure: Some Conjectures on the Effects of Institutional Changes, in: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 70, No. 5, September/October 1988, S. 37 – 45.  Google Scholar
  63. Bernanke, B. S. (1990): On the Predictive Power of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Spreads, in: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, New England Economic Review, November/December 1990, S.51-68.  Google Scholar
  64. Bigler, M. (1988): Finanzinnovationen und Geldpolitik, Schlußfolgerungen aus einem erweiterten Finanzmarktmodell, in: Kredit und Kapital, 21. Jg., Heft 2, 1988, S. 221 – 242.  Google Scholar
  65. Browne, F. and Manasse, P. (1990): The Information Content of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Theory and Evidence, in: OECD Economic Studies, Spring 1990, S. 59 – 86.  Google Scholar
  66. Burstein, M.L. (1988): Studies in Banking Theory, Financial History, and Vertical Control, Chapter 5, New York 1988, S. 48 – 62.  Google Scholar
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  68. Davies, R. G. (1990): Intermediate Targets and Indicators for Monetary Policy: An Introduction to the Issues, in: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Quarterly Review, Vol. 15, No. 2, Summer 1990, S. 71-82.  Google Scholar
  69. Deutsche Bundesbank (1991): Zinsentwicklung und Zinsstruktur seit Anfang der achtziger Jahre, in: Monatsberichte der Deutschen Bundesbank, 43. Jg., Nr. 7, Juli 1991, S. 31 – 42.  Google Scholar
  70. Estrella, A. and Hardouvelis, G. (1989): The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Research Paper No. 8907, May 1989.  Google Scholar
  71. Estrella, A. and Hardouvelis, G. (1990): Possible Roles of the Yield Curve in Monetary Policy, in: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Intermediate Targets and Indicators for Monetary Policy, A Critical Survey, New York, December 1990, S. 339 – 362.  Google Scholar
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  76. Friedman, B. M. (1988 a): Lessons on Monetary Policy from the 1980s, in: Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 2, No. 3, Summer 1988, S. 51 – 72.  Google Scholar
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  82. Gebauer, W. (1988b): A Term Structure Approach to German Monetary Policy, Geld und Währung Working Paper der J. W. Goethe-Universität, Nr. 7, Frankfurt am Main 1988.  Google Scholar
  83. Gebauer, W. (1989): Zinsstrukturtheorie und Zentralbankpolitik, in: Bub, N. u.a. (Hrsg.), Geldwertsicherung und Wirtschaftsstabilität, Festschrift für Helmut Schlesinger zum 65. Geburtstag, Frankfurt am Main 1989, S. 71 – 86.  Google Scholar
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  85. Hardouvelis, G. A. (1988): The Predictive Power of the Term Structure During Recent Monetary Regimes, in: The Journal of Finance, Vol. 43, No. 2, June 1988, S. 339 – 356.  Google Scholar
  86. Haslag, J. H. (1990): Monetary Aggregates and the Rate of Inflation, in: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Economic Review,March 1990, S.1-12.  Google Scholar
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  88. Herz, B. (1988): Geldpolitik bei finanziellen Innovationen, Frankfurt am Main 1988.  Google Scholar
  89. Johnson, M.H. (1988): Recent Economic Developments and Indicators of Monetary Policy, in: Deutsche Bundesbank, Auszüge aus Presseartikeln, Nr. 23, 7. April 1988, S.9-11.  Google Scholar
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  92. Kuttner, K. N. (1990): Inflation and the Growth Rate of Money, in: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Economic Perspectives, Vol. 14, No. 1, January/February 1990, S.2 – 11.  Google Scholar
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  95. Laurent, R. D. (1990): Term-Structure Spreads, The Money Supply Mechanism, and Indicators of Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Working Paper No. 16, September 1990.  Google Scholar
  96. Lown, C. S. (1989): Interest Rate Spreads, Commodity Prices, and the Dollar: A New Strategy for Monetary Policy?, in: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Economic Review, July 1989, S. 13 – 26.  Google Scholar
  97. Lutz, F. A. (1973): Zins und Inflation, Walter Eucken Institut, Vorträge und Aufsätze Nr. 42, Tübingen 1973.  Google Scholar
  98. Mankiw, N. G. (1986): The Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited, in: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1, 1986, S. 61 – 96.  Google Scholar
  99. Mankiw, N. G. and Miron, J. A. (1986): The Changing Behaviour of the Term Structure of Interest Rates, in: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 101, No. 2, May 1986, S. 211 – 228.  Google Scholar
  100. McCallum, B. T. (1985): On Consequences and Criticisms of Monetary Targeting, in: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 17, No. 4, November 1985, Part 2, S. 570 – 597.  Google Scholar
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  102. Mishkin, F. S. (1990): What Does the Term Structure Tell us about Future Inflation?, in: Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 25, No. 1, January 1990, S. 77 – 95.  Google Scholar
  103. Mote, L.R. (1988): Looking Back: The Use of Interest Rates in Monetary Policy, in: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Economic Perspectives, Vol. 12, No. 1, January/February 1988, S. 15 – 29.  Google Scholar
  104. Neubauer, W. (1980): Über die Konvergenz von Transmissionstheorien, in: Badura, J. und Issing, O. (Hrsg.), Geldpolitik, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Seminar, Band 10, Stuttgart und New York 1980, S. 65 – 72.  Google Scholar
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  107. Roth, G. (1991): Geldmarkt, Kapitalmarkt, Zinsentwicklung, in: Oldenburgische Wirtschaft, Zeitung der IHK Oldenburg, Heft 5, 1991, S. 30 – 36.  Google Scholar
  108. Ruckriegel, K. (1989): Finanzinnovationen und nationale Geldpolitik, Schriften zur Nationalökonomie, Band 5, Bayreuth 1989.  Google Scholar
  109. Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. (1989): New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators, in: National Bureau of Economic Research, Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Cambridge u.a. 1989, S. 351 – 394.  Google Scholar
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  111. Tobin, J. (1961): Monetary Theory: New and Old Looks, Money, Capital and Other Stores of Value, in: The American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 51, No. 2, May 1961, S. 26 – 37.  Google Scholar
  112. Tobin, J. (1974a): Inflation, Interest Rates, and Stock Values, in: The Morgan Guaranty Survey, January 1974, S.4-7.  Google Scholar
  113. Tobin, J. (1974b): Monetary Policy in 1974 and Beyond, in: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, 1974, S. 219 – 232.  Google Scholar
  114. Turnovsky, S. J. (1989): The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Effects of Macroeconomic Policy, in: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 21, No. 3, August 1989, S. 321 – 347.  Google Scholar
  115. Watson, M. W. (1991): Using Econometric Models to Predict Recessions, in: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Economic Perspectives, Vol. 15, No. 6, November/December 1991, S. 14 – 25.  Google Scholar
  116. Wenninger, J. (1990): Monetary Aggregates as Intermediate Targets, in: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Intermediate Targets and Indicators for Monetary Policy, A Critical Survey, New York, December 1990, S. 67 – 108.  Google Scholar
  117. Wicksell, K. (1898): Geldzins und Güterpreise, Eine Studie über die den Tauschwert des Geldes bestimmenden Ursachen, Jena 1898.  Google Scholar
  118. Wicksell, K. (1958): The Influence of the Rate of Interest on Commodity Prices, in: Selected Papers on Economic Theory, London 1958, S. 67-89.  Google Scholar

Abstract

The Interest Rate Structure as a Monetary Policy Indicator

This contribution analyzes whether the interest rate structure would be a suitable monetary policy indicator in Germany. A discussion has been going on in the United States for some time on whether the interest rate structure should, as an indicator, be preferred to money supply whose informatory value has been impaired by financial innovations. Empirical studies by the Federal Reserve Bank of the interrelationships between the interest rate structure and the Gross National Product in real terms as well as the level of prices have reached the conclusion for the United States of America that the interest rate structure is of great informatory value for future movements of both final goals of economic policy. There are three trends in economic theory that serve as the theoretical foundations ofanindicator that is based on the interest rate structure: The relation Q according to James Tobin, the theory of expectations for the interest rate structure according to Irving Fisher and the interest rate theory according to Knut Wicksell. The latter must be deemed to have been the real inventor of the theory that the interest rate structure can be used as an indicator, because it was he who fathered the opinion that monetary policy is effective through its influence on the ratio between two interest rates. Within the framework of a theoretical review of an indicator based on the interest rate structure, the hypothesis is made that this indicator is less prone to innovation than the money supply aggregates. This hypothesis, which must still be substantiated in academic terms, speaks in favour of the indicator based on the interest rate structure; the correctness of this view is doubtful mainly because its meaningfulness is limited by international capital movements. The empirical interrelationship between the interest rate structure and the Gross National Product is very close in the German case; the interrelationship between the interest rate structure and the level of prices is less close, however. The conclusion to be reached from this analysis is that the interest rate structure is no suitable indicator for German monetary policy. Inan economy whose main characteristic is strong international economic dependence, the limitation of the informatory function of the interest rate structure on account of international capital movements may not be neglected.