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Stehle, R., Hartmond, A. Durchschnittsrenditen deutscher Aktien 1954-1988. Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, 24(3), 371-411. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.24.3.371
Stehle, Richard and Hartmond, Anette "Durchschnittsrenditen deutscher Aktien 1954-1988" Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital 24.3, 1991, 371-411. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.24.3.371
Stehle, Richard/Hartmond, Anette (1991): Durchschnittsrenditen deutscher Aktien 1954-1988, in: Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, vol. 24, iss. 3, 371-411, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.24.3.371
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Durchschnittsrenditen deutscher Aktien 1954-1988

Stehle, Richard | Hartmond, Anette

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 24 (1991), Iss. 3 : pp. 371–411

3 Citations (CrossRef)

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Article Details

Publisher Name
Duncker & Humblot
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.24.3.371
Language
Multiple languages
Pages
41

Author Details

Richard Stehle, Augsburg

Anette Hartmond, Augsburg

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References

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  12. Keim, D. B. (1983): Size Related Anomalies and Stock Return Seasonality: Further Empirical Evidence, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 12, S. 13 - 33.  Google Scholar
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  18. Schnittke, J. (1989): Überrenditeeffekte am deutschen Aktienmarkt, Diss. Münster.  Google Scholar
  19. Sharpe, W. F. (1964): Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk, Journal of Finance, Vol. 19, S. 425 - 442.  Google Scholar
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  26. Bay, W. (1990): Dividenden, Steuern und Steuerreformen, Diss. Augsburg.  Google Scholar
  27. Bay, W./Stehle, R. (1988): Elimination of the Double Taxation of Dividends: Is the German Experience Relevant for the USA?, Working Paper, Universität Augsburg.  Google Scholar
  28. Bleymüller, S. (1966): Theorie und Technik der Aktienkursindizes, Wiesbaden.  Google Scholar
  29. Carleton, W. T., Lakonishok, J. (1985): Risk and Return on Equity: The Use and Misuse of Historical Estimates, Financial Analysts Journal, January – February, S. 38 – 47.  Google Scholar
  30. Deutsche Bundesbank (Hrsg.): Monatsberichte der Deutschen Bundesbank, Frankfurt, diverse Jahrgänge.  Google Scholar
  31. Fisher, L./Lorie, J. H. (1964): Rates of Return on Investments in Common Stocks, Journal of Business, Vol. 37, S. 1 – 21.  Google Scholar
  32. Grauer, F. L. A./ Litzenberger, R. H./Stehle, R. (1976): Sharing Rules and Equilibrium in an International Capital Market under Uncertainty, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 3, S.233 – 256.  Google Scholar
  33. Häuser, K. (1985): Aktienrendite und Renditenparadoxie, Frankfurt am Main.  Google Scholar
  34. Haugen, R. A. (1986): Modern Investment Theory, Prentice-Hall.  Google Scholar
  35. Ibbotson Associates, Inc. (1988): Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation, 1988 Yearbook.  Google Scholar
  36. Keim, D. B. (1983): Size Related Anomalies and Stock Return Seasonality: Further Empirical Evidence, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 12, S. 13 – 33.  Google Scholar
  37. Kurm, M. (1989): Auf lange Anlagefristen sind Aktien selbst unter Risikoaspekten überlegen, Handelsblatt 22.8.1989, S 28.  Google Scholar
  38. Lintner, J. (1965): The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 47,S. 13 – 37.  Google Scholar
  39. Marsh, P.R. (1979), Equity Rights Issues and the Efficiency of the UK Stock Market, Journal of Finance, Vol. 34, S. 839 – 862.  Google Scholar
  40. Mella, F. (1988): Dem Trend auf der Spur, Frankfurt.  Google Scholar
  41. Rozeff, M. S./ Kinney, W.R. Jr. (1976): Capital Market Seasonality: The Case of Stock Returns, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 3, S. 379 – 402.  Google Scholar
  42. Schnittke, J. (1989): Überrenditeeffekte am deutschen Aktienmarkt, Diss. Münster.  Google Scholar
  43. Sharpe, W. F. (1964): Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk, Journal of Finance, Vol. 19, S. 425 – 442.  Google Scholar
  44. Sharpe, W. F./Alexander, G. J. (1990): Investments, 4. Auflage, Prentice-Hall.  Google Scholar
  45. Silbermann, H. (1974): Index der Aktienkurse auf Basis 29. Dezember 1972, in: Wirtschaft und Statistik, S. 838.  Google Scholar
  46. Statistisches Bundesamt (1985): Geld und Kredit, Fachserie 9, Reihe 2. S. 1 – Index der Aktienkurse – Lange Reihe -, Wiesbaden.  Google Scholar
  47. Stehle, R. (1991): Der Size-Effekt am deutschen Kapitalmarkt, Working Paper, Universität Augsburg.  Google Scholar
  48. Stehle, R. (1976): The Valuation of Risk Assets in an International Capital Market: Theory and Tests, Diss. Stanford. – Uhlir, H./ Steiner, P. (1986): Wertpapieranalyse, Heidelberg.  Google Scholar

Abstract

Average Yields Recorded for German Shares between 1854 and 1988

In the period 1954/end-1988, noticeably higher average yields were recorded for capital invested in German shares compared with capital invested in fixed-interest securieties, especially when taxes and inflation are included. Consequently, it would not at all be justified to speak about a “paradox of yield”. For the USA, similar results have been observed for a considerably longer period of time. A comparison of investment made in the aforementioned period 1954/1988 shows that the yield on the German shares was better on average than that on the US shares. The analysis shows that the results vary widely depending on the choice of the shares, the investment strategy employed and on the period under review. The assumptions that are feasible in these respects are discussed in detail. Those assumptions are of fundamental importance also for forecasts of future yields: the resultant estimates concerning long-term average yields in future are between 8% and 12 %.

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Richard Stehle/Anette Hartmond: Durchschnittsrenditen deutscher Aktien\r1954 - 1988 371
I. Einleitung 371
II. Aktive versus passive Anlagestrategien, alternative passive Strategien 374
III. Auswahl von Stichprobe und Betrachtungszeitraum 379
IV. Die Schätzung von langfristigen Durchschnittsrenditen auf Basis der monatlichen Renditen einzelner Aktien 381
V. Alternative Möglichkeiten zur Schätzung der langfristigen Durchschnittsrendite passiver Anlagestrategien 392
VI. Berücksichtigung von Steuern, Transaktionskosten und Inflation 397
VII. Vergleich verschiedener Anlageformen 401
VIII. Relevanz der Durchschnittsrenditen für zukünftige Betrachtungen 403
IX. Schlußbemerkung 408
Literaturverzeichnis 409
Zusammenfassung: Durchschnittsrenditen deutscher Aktien 1954 - 1988 410
Summary: Average Yields Recorded for German Shares between 1854 and 1988 410
Résumé: Rendements moyens d'actions allemandes de 1954 à 1988 410

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