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Die Prognosen für 1988 im Rückblick: Der Börsenkrach vom 19. Oktober 1987 und seine gesamtwirtschaftlichen Folgen
Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 23 (1990), Iss. 2 : pp. 174–195
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Ullrich Heilemann, Essen
References
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Bundesregierung (Hrsg.) (1988): Jahreswirtschaftsbericht 1988. BT-Drucksache 11/3917.
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Bundesregierung (Hrsg.) (1989): Jahreswirtschaftsbericht 1989. BT-Drucksache 11/1733.
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Chick, V. (1983): Macro Economics after Keynes. Cambridge, Mass.
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Davidson, P. (1980): Post Keynesian Economics. „Public Interest", Special Issue ,The Crisis in Economic Theory'. New York, vol. 20, S. 151 - 173.
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Deutsche Bundesbank (Hrsg.) (1989a): Geschäftsbericht für das Jahr 1988. Frankfurt a. Main.
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Bundesregierung (Hrsg.) (1988): Jahreswirtschaftsbericht 1988. BT-Drucksache 11/3917.
Google Scholar -
Bundesregierung (Hrsg.) (1989): Jahreswirtschaftsbericht 1989. BT-Drucksache 11/1733.
Google Scholar -
Chick, V. (1983): Macro Economics after Keynes. Cambridge, Mass.
Google Scholar -
Davidson, P. (1980): Post Keynesian Economics. „Public Interest", Special Issue ,The Crisis in Economic Theory'. New York, vol. 20, S. 151 – 173.
Google Scholar -
Deutsche Bundesbank (Hrsg.) (1989a): Geschäftsbericht für das Jahr 1988. Frankfurt a. Main.
Google Scholar
Abstract
The 1988 Economic Forecasts in Retrospect: The Stock Exchange Crash of 19 October 1987 and its Implications for the Economy Overall
The paper analyzes the reasons why West Germany's economic forecasts for the year 1988 turned out to be wrong. It examines a prognosis drawn up on the basis of the RWI (Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) cyclical forecasting model, i.e. a medium-size econometric model for the Federal Republic of Germany, that has been used for current forecasting and simulation purposes for more than ten years.
The methodical basis mainly consists of a number of simulation runs which show that the most serious error source is to be found in the assumptions used in forecasting public building investment and, more particularly, world trade on the basis of that model, and this evaluation is likely to be valid also for the non-econometric prognoses. Besides inventory estimates, the most important endogenous error source must be deemed to be the apparently changed profit withdrawal propensity. The latter had noteworthy consequences for the accuracy of consumption analyses.
The findings presented reject indirectly the hypothesis that the unexpectedly positive 1988 development of the West German economy overall indicated that the supply-side improvements of previous years had begun to make themselves felt. The positive result is rather to be explained by the continued strong export orientation of the economy of the Federal Republic of Germany.