Verschuldungskrise und Verschuldungsmodelle

Abstract

Debt Crisis and Debt Management Model

The rationing of credit the highly indebted developing countries are currently facing suggests that debt indicators will be required to show a persistent improvement before capital will agein flow to those countries at market terms and conditions. The ratio between the external debt and the export earnings volumes is deemed to be the decisive indicator in this context. A trend study of this ratio by way of analogy with the known models of long-term external indebtedness suggests as a stability prerequisite that the rate of increase of export earnings must exceed the rate of interest payable on external debts. However, when treating the Gross National Product and the Gross Domestic Product as endogenous quantities, a transfer mechanism becomes visible which substantially weakens the condition at the base of stability. Returning to a tolerable debt service/export earnings ratio presupposes – in addition to satisfying stability requirements – that this ratio be reduced in margin. This requirement allows only relatively minor balance-of-trade deficits in future. If – in the interest of growth and of structural adjustment – a major transfer of resources is deemed necessary nonetheless, such transfer can be financed only presumably through international organizations or through “involuntary bank lendings” in future.