Probleme der Modellierung der Zinsstruktur in makroökonometrischen Modellen
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Probleme der Modellierung der Zinsstruktur in makroökonometrischen Modellen
König, Heinz | Gaab, W. | Wolters, J.
Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 13 (1980), Iss. 2 : pp. 178–214
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König, Heinz
Gaab, W.
Wolters, J.
References
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Abstract
Problems of Modelling Interest Rate Structures in Macroeconometrice Models
In econometric models, the modelling of the interest rate structure is of special significance for the modus operandi of monetary policy measures. For such modelling we have, in principle, the three following approaches: (i) the market equilibrium hypothesis: short- and long-term interest rates are determined via specification of the supply and demand sides of the relevant financial market; (ii) the expectation hypothesis of the interest rate structure: The long-term interest rate is a weighted average of the effective short-term interest rates in the past, and (iii) the hypothesis of efficent markets: The best predictor for the long-term interest rate is either the effective rate in the preceding period or the short-term interest rate prevailing at the besinning of the period plus a liquidity premium. Since the examination of the individual hypotheses without allowing for simultaneous relationships has disadvantages, each hypothesis for the interest rate structure is taken into account explicitly in a model for the financial sector of the Federal Republic of Germany. The object of the study is to single out, taking all structural relationships of the model into account, that hypothesis relating to the longterm interest rate which is most compatible with the observed dynamic relationships. The effects of the various hypotheses on the dynamic structure of the model are assessed on the bassis of the characteristic values of the deterministic system and with the help of spectral analysis. The methodological provedure is described in the appendix. It proves - with some reservations - that the expectation hypothesis corresponds mostly closely to the observed relationships.