Menu Expand

Unsicherheit, Friedmansche Regel und optimale Stabilisierungspolitik

Cite JOURNAL ARTICLE

Style

Läufer, N. Unsicherheit, Friedmansche Regel und optimale Stabilisierungspolitik. Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, 11(3), 379-398. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.11.3.379
Läufer, Nikolaus K. A. "Unsicherheit, Friedmansche Regel und optimale Stabilisierungspolitik" Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital 11.3, 1978, 379-398. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.11.3.379
Läufer, Nikolaus K. A. (1978): Unsicherheit, Friedmansche Regel und optimale Stabilisierungspolitik, in: Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, vol. 11, iss. 3, 379-398, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.11.3.379

Format

Unsicherheit, Friedmansche Regel und optimale Stabilisierungspolitik

Läufer, Nikolaus K. A.

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 11 (1978), Iss. 3 : pp. 379–398

Additional Information

Article Details

Läufer, Nikolaus K. A.

References

  1. Barro, Robert J.: Rational Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 2, No. 1, January 1976, S.1-33.  Google Scholar
  2. Brainard, William: Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Policy, American Economic Review, Vol.57, Papers and Proceedings, May 1967, S. 411 - 425.  Google Scholar
  3. Barro, Robert J. und Fischer, Stanley: Recent Developments in Monetary Theory, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 2, No. 2, April 1976, S. 133 - 169.  Google Scholar
  4. Brunner, Karl, Meltzer, Allan H. (Hrsg.): The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets, Carnegie-Rochester-Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 1, Amsterdam 1976.  Google Scholar
  5. Chow, Gregory C.: Analysis and Control of Dynamic Economic Systems, New York 1975.  Google Scholar
  6. Feige, Edgar L. und Pearce, Douglas K.: Economically Rational Expectations: Are Innovations in the Rate of Inflation Independent of Innovations in Measures of Monetary and Fiscal Policy? Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 84, No. 3, June 1976, S. 499 - 522.  Google Scholar
  7. Fischer, Stanley, Cooper, J. Phillip: Stabilization Policy and Lags, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 81, No. 4, July/August 1973, S. 847 - 877.  Google Scholar
  8. Fischer, Stanley: Long-term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No. 1, Februar 1977, S. 191 - 205.  Google Scholar
  9. Friedman, Milton: Statements before the Joint Committee and the Transcript of Subsequent Discussion in U. S. Congress, Joint Economic Committee, Hearings on Employment, Growth and the Price Levels, 86th Congr., 1st sess., Government Printing Office, Washington 1959, Part IV, S. 605 - 669, Part IX A, S. 3019 - 3053.  Google Scholar
  10. Friedman, Milton: A Program for Monetary Stability, New York City 1960.  Google Scholar
  11. Friedman, Milton: The Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays, Macmillan 1969, in deutscher Sprache unter dem Titel: Die optimale Geldmenge und andere Essays, München 1970 (Verlag Moderne Industrie) und Frankfurt 1976 (Fischer Taschenbuch 1765).  Google Scholar
  12. Gäfgen, Gerard (Hrsg.): Grundlagen der Wirtschaftspolitik, Köln, Berlin 1966.  Google Scholar
  13. Gordon, Robert J.: Recent Developments in the Theory of Inflation and Unemployment, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 2, No. 2, April 1976, S. 185 - 220.  Google Scholar
  14. Gramlich, Edward M.: The Usefulness of Monetary and Fiscal Policy as Discretionary Stabilization Tools, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. III, No. 2, Part 2, May 1971, S. 506 - 532.  Google Scholar
  15. Holbrook, Robert S.: Optimal Economic Policy and the Problem of Instrument Instability, American Economic Review, Vol. 62, No. 1, March 1972, S.57-65.  Google Scholar
  16. Lucas, Robert E., Jr.: Expectations and the Neutrality of Money, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 4, April 1972, S. 103 - 124.  Google Scholar
  17. Lucas, Robert E., Jr.: Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs, American Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 3, June 1973, S. 326 - 334.  Google Scholar
  18. Lucas, Robert E., Jr.: An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 83, No. 6, December 1975, S.1113-1144.  Google Scholar
  19. Lucas, Robert E., Jr.: Econometric Policy Evaluatien: A Critique, in: K. Brunner und A. H. Meltzer (1976), S. 19 - 46.  Google Scholar
  20. Lucas, Robert E., Jr. und Rapping, Leonhard A.: Real Wages, Employment and the Price Level, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 77, September/October 1969, S. 721 -754,, wiederabgedruckt in: Phelps (1970), S. 257 - 305.  Google Scholar
  21. Muth, John F.: Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements, Econometrica, Vol. 39, July 1961, S.31-3535.  Google Scholar
  22. Phelps, Edmund S. (Hrsg.): Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, New York 1970.  Google Scholar
  23. Phelps, Edmund S. und Taylor, John B.: Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No. 1, Februar 1977, S. 163 - 190.  Google Scholar
  24. Pierce, James L.: Quantitative Analysis for Decisions at the Federal Reserve, Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 3, No. 1, 1974, S. 11-19.  Google Scholar
  25. Sargent, Thomas J.: Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, 1973, S. 429-480.  Google Scholar
  26. Sargent, Thomas J.: A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the U.S., Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 84, April 1976a, S. 207-237.  Google Scholar
  27. Sargent, Thomas J.: Testing for Neutrality and Rationality, 1976b in: T. J. Sargent and N. Wallace (1976b), S.I-22.  Google Scholar
  28. Sargent, Thomas, Wallace, Neil: Rational Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 83, No. 2, April 1975, S. 241 - 254.  Google Scholar
  29. Sargent, Thomas J,, Wallace, Neil: Rational Expectations and the Theory of Economic Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 2, No. 2, April 1976a, S.169-184.  Google Scholar
  30. Sargent, Thomas J., Wallace, Neil: Rational Expectations and the Theory of Economic Policy, Part II: Arguments and Evidence, Studies in Monetary Economics, No. 3, Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Minneäpolis, June 1976b.  Google Scholar
  31. Taylor, John B.: Monetary Policy during a Transition to Rational Expectations, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 83, No. 5, October 1975, S.1009-1021.  Google Scholar
  32. Theil, Henri: Economic Forecasts and Policy, 2nd edition, Amsterdam-London 1961.  Google Scholar
  33. Theil, Henri: Optimal Decision Rules for Government and Industry, Amsterdam 1964a.  Google Scholar
  34. Theil, Henri: Linear Decision Rules for Macrodynamic Policy Problems, in: B. C. Hickman (Hrsg.), Quantitative Planning of Economic Policy, Washington 1964b.  Google Scholar
  35. Tinbergen, Jan: On the Theory of Economic Policy, 2. Auflage, Amsterdam 1963 (Kurzfassung in: G. Gäfgen (1966), S. 383 - 396).  Google Scholar
  36. Wallace, Neil: Microeconomic Theories of Macroeconomic Phenomena and Their Implications for Monetary Policy, 1976, in: T. J. Sargent und N. Wallace (1976b), S. 23 - 33.  Google Scholar

Abstract

Uncertainty, Friedman’s Rule and Optimal Stabilization Policy

A broad version of Friedman’s rule is incorporated systematically in the Tinbergen-Theil-Brainard approach to optimal stabilization policy: Not long lags, but very high parameter uncertainty is needed in order than an optimal stabilization policy decision rule in accordance with control theory can agree with or come very close to the Friedman rule. Uncertainty in the theory and hitherto still largely neglected learning processes of economic entities force the already existing parameter uncertainty up to such extreme heighs that Friedman’s rule can be accepted as directly optimal under control theory or, on econometric grounds, as the best among the unavoidably suboptimal decision rules.

Table of Contents