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Methoden und Probleme einer Geldmengensteuerung

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Alexander, V., Loef, H. Methoden und Probleme einer Geldmengensteuerung. Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, 9(4), 455-480. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.9.4.455
Alexander, Volbert and Loef, Hans Edi "Methoden und Probleme einer Geldmengensteuerung" Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital 9.4, 1976, 455-480. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.9.4.455
Alexander, Volbert/Loef, Hans Edi (1976): Methoden und Probleme einer Geldmengensteuerung, in: Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, vol. 9, iss. 4, 455-480, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.9.4.455

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Methoden und Probleme einer Geldmengensteuerung

Alexander, Volbert | Loef, Hans Edi

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 9 (1976), Iss. 4 : pp. 455–480

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Article Details

Alexander, Volbert

Loef, Hans Edi

Abstract

Methods and Problems of Controlling the Quantity of Money - Empirical Simulation Tests for the Federal Republic of Germany

The influence of the quantity of money on macroeconomic magnitudes is of relevance for the central bank with regard to monetary policy only if it can control the quantity of money. Control of the monetary base alone is not enough; on the contrary, the money quantity multiplier must either be constant or accurately forecastable. Since the zı multiplier for the Federal Republic of Germany was by no means constant over time, this study attempts, among other things, to forecast the trend of the multiplier. The approach adopted in the study is the multiplier forecasting method proposed by Burger, Kalish and Babb. Different explanatory factors are tested to determine their influence. Since, moreover, the Bundesbank is unable to exercise precise control of the monetary base, alternative, but more effectively controllable magnitudes (liberated reserves LR and so-called controllable monetary base BC) are also taken into account. For monthly values, the analysıs shows that forecasts of the multipliers give values in respect of LR and BC which are useless for controlling M. There remains only control with the help of the monetary base. The forecast results relating to the multiplier concerned admit of control of the quantity of money by the Bundesbank with some limitations. It proves that interest values make no significant contribution to the forecast, and that past multiplier values give the best results. Here, as in the case of monetary base control, the most important disturbing factor is the external factor. The upshot is that to a great extent precise control of the quantity of money would have been possible from 1956 to 1967. Although from 1968 onwards accuracy of control diminished, an appropriate monetary policy would nevertheless not have been impossible in this period (up to 1973). A switch to quarterly values considerably improves the possibility of controlling the quantity of money, but in this case, too, the adverse influence of the external component is noticeable. The adoption of largely flexible exchange rates and possible intensified use of quantity-controlling instruments of monetary policy by the Bundesbank can be expected to bring more exact control of the quantity of money.

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Volbert Alexander/Hans Edi Loef: Methoden und Probleme einer Geldmengensteuerung. Empirische Simulationstests für die BRD 455
I. Problemstellung 455
II. Die geldpolitische Strategie von Burger, Kalish III und Babb 456
1. Darstellung der Gesamtstrategie 457
2. Kritische Einwände gegen das BKB-Verfabren 458
III. Die Anwendung der BKB-Strategie in der BRD 459
1. Eingrenzung der Problemstellung 459
2. Konsequenzen aus institutionellen Besonderheiten des Geldsystems in der BRD 459
3. Festlegung der gewünschten Geldmengenentwicklung 461
4. Verfahren zur Prognose von mLR, mBC und mB 461
IV. Empirische Prognose- und Simulationsergebnisse 464
1. Verwendetes Zahlenmaterial 464
2. Ergebnisse der Verfahren (1) bis (7) für Monatswerte 465
3. Ergebnisse der Verfahren (8) bis (28) für Monatswerte 466
a) Eliminierung unzuverlässiger Verfahren 466
b) Simulationsergebnisse für das Verfahren mit festem Parameterinput 467
c) Simulationsergebnisse mit Hilfe des Verfahrens variabler Parameterinputs (Monatswerte) 469
4. Simulationsergebnisse der Prognoseverfahren (8) bis (10) und (20) bis (28) für Quartalswerte mit variablem Parameterinput 471
V. Abschließende Konsequenzen 475
Zusammenfassung: Methoden und Probleme einer Geldmengensteuerung. Empirische Simulationstests für die BRD 477
Summary: Methods and Problems of Controlling the Quantity of Money — Empirical Simulation Tests for the Federal Republic of Germany 478
Résumé: Methodes et problèmes de la maîtrise de la masse monétaire 479