Haben Konjunkturprognosen in Deutschland einen politischen Bias?
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Haben Konjunkturprognosen in Deutschland einen politischen Bias?
Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, Vol. 120 (2000), Iss. 4 : pp. 587–620
7 Citations (CrossRef)
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Döpke, Jörg
Cited By
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Theories, Techniques and the Formation of German Business Cycle Forecasts
Döpke, Jörg | Fritsche, Ulrich | Waldhof, GabiJahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Vol. 239 (2019), Iss. 2 P.203
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The macroeconomic projections of the German government: A comparison to an independent forecasting institution
Lehmann, Robert | Wollmershäuser, TimoGerman Economic Review, Vol. 21 (2020), Iss. 2 P.235
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Zehn Gebote zum Umgang mit Konjunkturprognosen
Döpke, Jörg | Fritsche, UlrichZeitschrift für Politikberatung, Vol. 2 (2009), Iss. 1 P.26
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Ideology and Dissent among Economists: The Joint Economic Forecast of German Economic Research Institutes
Quyen Ngo, Ha | Potrafke, Niklas | Riem, Marina | Schinke, ChristophEastern Economic Journal, Vol. 44 (2018), Iss. 1 P.135
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Abstract
The paper analyzes whether business cycle forecasts in Germany show a political bias. Several explanations for a political influence on forecasts are discussed. Using predictions from the German Institute of Economic Research and the Kiel Institute of World Economics, the hypotheses are tested empirically. The results provide no evidence supporting opportunistic or partisan behavior of the institutes. In contrast, there is some evidence in favor of the hypothesis of intentional forecast errors. The results, however, depend on the econometric technique used. In particular, in some instances, parametric and non-parametric tests lead to conflicting results.