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Döpke, J. Haben Konjunkturprognosen in Deutschland einen politischen Bias?. Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, 120(4), 587-620. https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.120.4.587
Döpke, Jörg "Haben Konjunkturprognosen in Deutschland einen politischen Bias?" Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch 120.4, 2000, 587-620. https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.120.4.587
Döpke, Jörg (2000): Haben Konjunkturprognosen in Deutschland einen politischen Bias?, in: Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, vol. 120, iss. 4, 587-620, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.120.4.587

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Haben Konjunkturprognosen in Deutschland einen politischen Bias?

Döpke, Jörg

Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, Vol. 120 (2000), Iss. 4 : pp. 587–620

7 Citations (CrossRef)

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Döpke, Jörg

Cited By

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  3. Sharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions based on text mining techniques

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    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102179 [Citations: 5]
  4. Theories, Techniques and the Formation of German Business Cycle Forecasts

    Döpke, Jörg | Fritsche, Ulrich | Waldhof, Gabi

    Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Vol. 239 (2019), Iss. 2 P.203

    https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2018-0018 [Citations: 3]
  5. The macroeconomic projections of the German government: A comparison to an independent forecasting institution

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    German Economic Review, Vol. 21 (2020), Iss. 2 P.235

    https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2019-0047 [Citations: 4]
  6. Zehn Gebote zum Umgang mit Konjunkturprognosen

    Döpke, Jörg | Fritsche, Ulrich

    Zeitschrift für Politikberatung, Vol. 2 (2009), Iss. 1 P.26

    https://doi.org/10.1007/s12392-009-0074-x [Citations: 0]
  7. Ideology and Dissent among Economists: The Joint Economic Forecast of German Economic Research Institutes

    Quyen Ngo, Ha | Potrafke, Niklas | Riem, Marina | Schinke, Christoph

    Eastern Economic Journal, Vol. 44 (2018), Iss. 1 P.135

    https://doi.org/10.1057/eej.2015.33 [Citations: 4]

Abstract

The paper analyzes whether business cycle forecasts in Germany show a political bias. Several explanations for a political influence on forecasts are discussed. Using predictions from the German Institute of Economic Research and the Kiel Institute of World Economics, the hypotheses are tested empirically. The results provide no evidence supporting opportunistic or partisan behavior of the institutes. In contrast, there is some evidence in favor of the hypothesis of intentional forecast errors. The results, however, depend on the econometric technique used. In particular, in some instances, parametric and non-parametric tests lead to conflicting results.