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Evaluation von Real-Business-Cycle Modellen mit Burns-Mitchell-Methodologie

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Lucke, B. Evaluation von Real-Business-Cycle Modellen mit Burns-Mitchell-Methodologie. Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, 117(2), 167-196. https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.117.2.167
Lucke, Bernd "Evaluation von Real-Business-Cycle Modellen mit Burns-Mitchell-Methodologie" Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch 117.2, 1997, 167-196. https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.117.2.167
Lucke, Bernd (1997): Evaluation von Real-Business-Cycle Modellen mit Burns-Mitchell-Methodologie, in: Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, vol. 117, iss. 2, 167-196, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.117.2.167

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Evaluation von Real-Business-Cycle Modellen mit Burns-Mitchell-Methodologie

Lucke, Bernd

Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, Vol. 117 (1997), Iss. 2 : pp. 167–196

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Article Details

Lucke, Bernd

Abstract

This paper follows the footprints of Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell in their methodology of business cycle research as developed and implemented at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Turning points of the West German business cycle are identified using the Bry-Boschan procedure and stylized facts expressed as Burns-Mitchell statistics emerge. These stylized facts are used to evaluate two prototype real business cycle models in a simulation study in the spirit of the well-known Adelman test. Contrary to similar exercises with US data, an analysis with German data gives rise to considerable evidence against both models. This is at least partially due to a more comprehensive choice of the Burns-Mitchell statistics considered.