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Evaluation von Real-Business-Cycle Modellen mit Burns-Mitchell-Methodologie
Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, Vol. 117 (1997), Iss. 2 : pp. 167–196
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Lucke, Bernd
Abstract
This paper follows the footprints of Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell in their methodology of business cycle research as developed and implemented at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Turning points of the West German business cycle are identified using the Bry-Boschan procedure and stylized facts expressed as Burns-Mitchell statistics emerge. These stylized facts are used to evaluate two prototype real business cycle models in a simulation study in the spirit of the well-known Adelman test. Contrary to similar exercises with US data, an analysis with German data gives rise to considerable evidence against both models. This is at least partially due to a more comprehensive choice of the Burns-Mitchell statistics considered.