Menu Expand



Chagny, O., Döpke, J. Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods. Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, 70(3), 310-330.
Chagny, Odile and Döpke, Jörg "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods" Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 70.3, , 310-330.
Chagny, Odile/Döpke, Jörg: Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods, in: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 70, iss. 3, 310-330, [online]


Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods

Chagny, Odile | Döpke, Jörg

Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. 70 (2001), Iss. 3 : pp. 310–330

17 Citations (CrossRef)

Additional Information

Article Details

Author Details

1OFCE, Paris.

Döpke, Jörg

Cited By

  1. Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule?: Comparing Ex-Post with Real Time Data

    Belke, Ansgar Hubertus | Klose, Jens

    SSRN Electronic Journal, Vol. (2009), Iss. [Citations: 7]
  2. An Algorithm of Decomposing the Trend and Cyclical Components of FDI Inflows: The Case of Ukraine

    Moskalenko, Bogdan A. | Mitev, Pavlin

    Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, Vol. 4 (2020), Iss. 3 P.95 [Citations: 1]
  3. Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth

    Kappler, Marcus

    SSRN Electronic Journal, Vol. (2007), Iss. [Citations: 1]
  4. Output Gap as Indicator of Inflation - Case for Czech Economy

    Kloudová, Dana

    Politická ekonomie, Vol. 61 (2013), Iss. 5 P.639 [Citations: 2]
  5. Estimating Potential GDP for the Romanian Economy and Assessing the Sustainability of Economic Growth: A Multivariate Filter Approach

    Armeanu, Dan | Crețan, Georgiana | Lache, Leonard | Mitroi, Mihaela

    Sustainability, Vol. 7 (2015), Iss. 3 P.3338 [Citations: 1]
  6. Exchange Rate Pass Through in Ghana

    Loloh, Francis White

    SSRN Electronic Journal, Vol. (2014), Iss. [Citations: 5]
  7. Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule During the Financial Crisis? Comparing Ex-post and Real Time Data with Real Time Forecasts

    Belke, Ansgar | Klose, Jens

    Economic Analysis and Policy, Vol. 41 (2011), Iss. 2 P.147 [Citations: 17]
  8. Réflexions et suggestions autour du concept d’output gap

    Charles, Sébastien | Dallery, Thomas | Marie, Jonathan

    Interventions économiques, Vol. (2018), Iss. 60 [Citations: 1]
  9. Analyzing Private Sector Credit Growth in Ghana

    Loloh, Francis White | Amoah, Benjamin

    SSRN Electronic Journal, Vol. (2014), Iss. [Citations: 2]
  10. Factors of Economic Growth in 2011–2021 and Their Reflection in Macroeconomic Models

    Kuranov, G. O. | Strizhkova, L. A. | Tishina, L. I. | Kuranov, A. G.

    Voprosy statistiki, Vol. 29 (2022), Iss. 3 P.5 [Citations: 2]
  11. Can the Taylor Rule be a Good Guidance for Policy? The Case of 2001-2008 Real Estate Bubble

    Machaj, Mateusz

    Prague Economic Papers, Vol. 25 (2016), Iss. 4 P.381 [Citations: 6]
  12. Estimation of potential product and output gap in slovak conditions

    Zimková, Emília | Barochovský, Jaroslav

    Politická ekonomie, Vol. 55 (2007), Iss. 4 P.473 [Citations: 11]
  13. Les performances économiques de la Suède

    Touzé, Vincent

    Revue de l'OFCE, Vol. n o 100 (2007), Iss. 1 P.31 [Citations: 3]
  14. Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle

    Chetouane, Mabrouk | Lemoine, Matthieu | de la Serve, Marie-Elisabeth

    Revue de l'OFCE, Vol. n° 116 (2011), Iss. 1 P.89 [Citations: 0]
  15. Impact of the Crisis on Potential Growth: An Approach Based on Unobserved Component Models (in French)

    Lemoine, Matthieu | de la serve, Marie-Elisabeth | Chetouane, Mabrouck

    SSRN Electronic Journal, Vol. (2011), Iss. [Citations: 0]
  16. The Missing Cycle in the HP Filter and the Measurement of Cyclically-Adjusted Budget Balances

    Mohr, Matthias F.

    SSRN Electronic Journal, Vol. (2006), Iss. [Citations: 3]
  17. Comparison of HP Filter and the Hamilton’s Regression

    Dritsaki, Melina | Dritsaki, Chaido

    Mathematics, Vol. 10 (2022), Iss. 8 P.1237 [Citations: 5]


The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated data for the Euro-zone. Though these methods exhibit some common features, an empirical comparison demonstrates that the various techniques differ substantially. In particular, the correlation of output gaps calculated with different methods is generally low, the methods imply different turning points, and the estimated level of the output gap differs greatly. Moreover, tests suggest that some of the methods commonly used have only limited information content for inflation forecasting in the Euro-zone. Conclusions for business cycle analysis and economic policy are offered.


Ansätze zur Schätzung des Output-Gap in der Euro-Zone: Ein empirischer Vergleich ausgewählter Methoden

Der Aufsatz untersucht einige populäre Methoden zur Messung des Output-Gaps auf der Basis von aggregierten Daten für die Euro-Zone. Obwohl die Methoden einige wichtige gemeinsame Eigenschaften aufweisen, zeigen auch sie erhebliche Unterschiede, insbesondere ist die Korrelation zwischen Output-Gap-Schätzungen auf Basis verschiedener Methoden niedrig, die Ansätze implizieren differierende Wendepunkte, und das Niveau des Output-Gaps variiert stark. Empirische Untersuchungen zeigen zudem, dass der Informationsgehalt der Gap-Variablen für die Prognose der Inflationsrate nur sehr klein ist. Einigen Schlussfolgerungen hinsichtlich der Nützlichkeit von Output-Gap-Schätzungen und für die Wirtschaftspolitik werden gezogen.