JOURNAL ARTICLE
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Agent Based Modeling and Adaptation to Climate Change
Patt, Anthony | Siebenhüner, Bernd
Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. 74 (2005), Iss. 2 : pp. 310–320
44 Citations (CrossRef)
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1Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, 675 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
2Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, School of Computing Science, Business Administration, Economics and Law, GELENA Research Group, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany.
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Abstract
Agent based modeling is a technique for simulating complex systems that allows the modeler to investigate both the potential for and the sources of emergent properties: behaviors of the system quite different from the behavior of any of the elements within it. Problems well suited to investigation by agent based models are those with many people solving a similar problem where their individual responses to the problem influence the choices that others make, where new technologies may emerge to assist them solve the problem, and where social dilemmas exist. These features are inherent in many problems of adaptation to climate change. Agent based modeling can not predict the future of a complex adaptive system – no method of modeling can – but it can offer insights into the relationship between features of current systems and the range of possible future adaptations that will be likely in response to climate change.
Die agentenbasierte Modellierung als Methode der Simulation komplexer Systeme ermöglicht die Analyse von Potentialen und Ursprüngen emergenter Eigenschaften, die nicht allein auf Basis des Verhaltens der Elemente des Systems erklärt werden können. Für agentenbasierte Modellansätze bieten sich insbesondere solche Probleme an, bei denen eine Vielzahl von sich wechselseitig beeinflussenden Individuen in die Lösung desselben Problems einbezogen sind. Zudem kann die Entstehung neuartiger Techniken sowie bestehende Umgangsformen mit sozialen Dilemmasituationen analysiert werden. Die Probleme der Anpassung an den Klimawandel zeichnen sich durch diese Kennzeichen aus. Zwar kann die agentenbasierte Modellierung die Zukunft eines komplexen adaptiven Systems ebenso wenig vorhersagen wie andere Modelle, doch kann sie Einsichten in die Beziehungen zwischen verschiedenen Eigenschaften dieser Systeme und in die möglichen zukünftigen Anpassungsmaßnahmen an den Klimawandel und deren Kosten liefern.