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Probleme der Bildung empirisch überprüfbarer Hypothesen zum Internationalen Konjunkturzusammenhang
Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, Vol. 97 (1977), Iss. 4 : pp. 351–371
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Rohwedder, Jürgen
References
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Ball, R. J. (1973), The International Linkage of National Economic Models, Amsterdam, London, New York 1973.
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Abstract
Theoretical explanations of the international transmission of business cycles are usually based on the Keynesian theory of international trade. This concept, however, does not suit well as basis for an empirical analysis, because it neglects price expectations, does not take into account changes of production capacity, is of a comparative-static character (and therefore can not allow for endogeneous oscillations) and includes as transmission channels only foreign trade and - incompletely - capital movements. Building a model which takes into consideration all these points would be a very cumbersome piece of work. Therefore a simplified approach must be chosen for an empirical investigation: The analysis should be restricted to the case of a small country, should neglect secondary effects (acceleration principle) and should concentrate on individual branches, as these branches might be differently influenced by other countries. Finally, the importance of different transmission chanels should be explored as intensively as possible.