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Probleme der Bildung empirisch überprüfbarer Hypothesen zum Internationalen Konjunkturzusammenhang

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Rohwedder, J. Probleme der Bildung empirisch überprüfbarer Hypothesen zum Internationalen Konjunkturzusammenhang. Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, 97(4), 351-371. https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.97.4.351
Rohwedder, Jürgen "Probleme der Bildung empirisch überprüfbarer Hypothesen zum Internationalen Konjunkturzusammenhang" Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch 97.4, 1977, 351-371. https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.97.4.351
Rohwedder, Jürgen (1977): Probleme der Bildung empirisch überprüfbarer Hypothesen zum Internationalen Konjunkturzusammenhang, in: Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, vol. 97, iss. 4, 351-371, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.97.4.351

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Probleme der Bildung empirisch überprüfbarer Hypothesen zum Internationalen Konjunkturzusammenhang

Rohwedder, Jürgen

Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, Vol. 97 (1977), Iss. 4 : pp. 351–371

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Rohwedder, Jürgen

References

  1. Ball, R. J. (1973), The International Linkage of National Economic Models, Amsterdam, London, New York 1973.  Google Scholar
  2. Burns, A. F. und W. C. Mitchell (1946), Measuring Business Cycles, New York 1946.  Google Scholar
  3. Graf, G. (1974), Zur empirischen Uberprüfbarkeit des internationalen Konjunkturzusammenhanges, Konjunkturpolitik, 20 (1974), S. 171 - 181.  Google Scholar
  4. Harrod, R. F. (1936), The Trade Cycle, London 1936.  Google Scholar
  5. Helliwell, J. F. et al. (1973), A Comprehensive Linkage of Large Models: Canada and the United States, in: R. J. Ball (Hrsg.), The International Linkage of National Economic Models, Amsterdam, London, New York 1973, S. 395 - 426.  Google Scholar

Abstract

Theoretical explanations of the international transmission of business cycles are usually based on the Keynesian theory of international trade. This concept, however, does not suit well as basis for an empirical analysis, because it neglects price expectations, does not take into account changes of production capacity, is of a comparative-static character (and therefore can not allow for endogeneous oscillations) and includes as transmission channels only foreign trade and - incompletely - capital movements. Building a model which takes into consideration all these points would be a very cumbersome piece of work. Therefore a simplified approach must be chosen for an empirical investigation: The analysis should be restricted to the case of a small country, should neglect secondary effects (acceleration principle) and should concentrate on individual branches, as these branches might be differently influenced by other countries. Finally, the importance of different transmission chanels should be explored as intensively as possible.