Zur Theorie der Arbeitskräftebedarfs-Schätzung für eine wachsende Wirtschaft

Abstract

Towards a Theory of Planning Manpower Requirements for Economic Growth

The paper starts with a critique of the theory and technique of the so-called manpower requirements approach to educational planning and in particular its underlying concept of production and technical progress. In the derivation of manpower needs the approach also uses the traditionally accepted scheme of primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors of production with differing rates of growth of output and productivity. It is argued that a theoretically meaningful and clear classification of production can be obtained through the distinction of the production of goods and services and the production of technical progress (i.e. changes of conditions of production of goods and services). Labor inputs can be classified according to their relation to the production process: primary labor serves immediate production processes of goods and services for final demand; secondary labor serves the production and diffusion of technical progress; tertiary labor serves communication and interaction activities in an increasingly specialized and complex system of production. It is argued that the relative weight of secondary and tertiary labor increases in the process of economic development. Census data of the occupational structure in the Federal Republic of Germany (1950 and 1961) are used to verify this hypothesis in a tentative way