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Berk, J., van den End, J. Excess Liquidity and the Usefulness of the Money Multiplier. Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, 55(4), 457-488. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.55.4.457
Berk, Jan Marc and van den End, Jan Willem "Excess Liquidity and the Usefulness of the Money Multiplier" Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital 55.4, 2022, 457-488. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.55.4.457
Berk, Jan Marc/van den End, Jan Willem (2022): Excess Liquidity and the Usefulness of the Money Multiplier, in: Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, vol. 55, iss. 4, 457-488, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.55.4.457

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Excess Liquidity and the Usefulness of the Money Multiplier

Berk, Jan Marc | van den End, Jan Willem

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 55 (2022), Iss. 4 : pp. 457–488

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Article Details

Author Details

Jan Marc Berk, De Nederlandsche Bank, the Netherlands; University of Groningen, the Netherlands.

Jan Willem van den End, De Nederlandsche Bank, the Netherlands; Vrije Universiteit, the Netherlands. Corresponding author.

References

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  32. Van den End, J. W. (2019): Applying complexity theory to interest rates: evidence of critical transitions in the euro area, Credit and Capital Markets, 52(1), 1–33.  Google Scholar
  33. Werner, R. A. (2016): A lost century in economics: Three theories of banking and the conclusive evidence, International Review of Financial Analysis, 46, 361–379.  Google Scholar
  34. Woodford, M. (2003): Interest and prices, Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press.  Google Scholar
  35. Aberg, P./Corsi, M./Grossmann-Wirth, V./Hudepohl, T./Mudde, Y./Rosolin, T./Schobert, F. (2021): Demand for central bank reserves and monetary policy implementation frameworks: the case of the Eurosystem, ECB occasional paper, 282.  Google Scholar
  36. Acharya, V./Rajan, R. G. (2022): Liquidity, liquidity everywhere, not a drop to use – Why flooding banks with central bank reserves may not expand liquidity, CEPR Discussion Paper, DP16907.  Google Scholar
  37. Afonso, G./Kim, K./Martin, A./Nosal, A./Potter, S. M./Schulhofer-Wohl, S. (2020): Monetary Policy Implementation with an Ample Supply of Reserves, FRB Atlanta Working Paper, 2020-2.  Google Scholar
  38. Bekaert, G./Hoerova, M. (2014): The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility, ECB working paper, 1675.  Google Scholar
  39. Bernanke, B. S./Gertler, M. (1995): Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission, Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, 9(4), 27–48, Fall.  Google Scholar
  40. Bernanke, B. S./Mihov, I. (1998): Measuring Monetary Policy, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 869–902.  Google Scholar
  41. Berrospide, J. M./Edge, R. M. (2010): The Effects of Bank Capital on Lending: What Do We Know, and What Does It Mean?, International Journal of Central Banking, 6(34), 1–50.  Google Scholar
  42. Beyer, A./Nicoletti, G./Papadopoulou, N./Papsdorf, P./Rünstler, G./Schwarz, C./Sousa, J./Vergote, O. (2017): The transmission channels of monetary, macro- and microprudential policies and their interrelations, ECB occasional paper, 191.  Google Scholar
  43. Brunner, A. D. (1994): The federal funds rate and the implementation of monetary policy: estimating the Federal Reserve’s reaction function, International Finance Discussion paper, 466.  Google Scholar
  44. Brunnermeier, M. K./Eisenbach, T. M./Sannikov, Y. (2012): Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey, NBER working paper, 18102.  Google Scholar
  45. Brunnermeier, M. K./Koby, Y. (2018): The Reversal Interest Rate, NBER working paper, 25406.  Google Scholar
  46. Deutsche Bundesbank (2016): The macroeconomic impact of quantitative easing in the euro area, Monthly Report, June 2016, 29–53.  Google Scholar
  47. Deutsche Bundesbank (2017): The role of banks, non-banks and the central bank in the money creation process, Monhtly Report, April 2017, 13–33.  Google Scholar
  48. Diamond, W./Jiang, Z./Ma, Y. (2021): The Reserve Supply Channel of Unconventional Monetary Policy, Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research Paper.  Google Scholar
  49. Disyatat, P. (2008): Monetary policy implementation: Misconceptions and their consequences, BIS working paper, 269.  Google Scholar
  50. Friedman, M./Schwartz, A. J. (1963): A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Princeton, Princeton University Press.  Google Scholar
  51. Gertler, M./Gilchrist, S. (1993): The role of credit market imperfections in the monetary transmission mechanism: arguments and evidence, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 43–64.  Google Scholar
  52. Gertler, M./ Karadi, P. (2013): QE 1 vs. 2 vs. 3.: A Framework for Analyzing Large-Scale Asset Purchases as a Monetary Policy Tool, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, 9(1), 5–53.  Google Scholar
  53. Goodfriend, M. (2000): Overcoming the zero lower bound on interest rate policy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 32, 1007–1035.  Google Scholar
  54. Goodfriend, M. (2002): Interest on reserves and monetary policy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 8, 77–84.  Google Scholar
  55. Goodhart, C. A. E. (1989): Money, Information and Uncertainty, Macmillan.  Google Scholar
  56. Goodhart, C. A. E. (2009): The Continuing Muddles of Monetary Theory: A Steadfast Refusal to Face Facts, Economica, 76, 821–830.  Google Scholar
  57. Goodhart, C. A. E. (2010): Money, credit and bank behaviour: need for a new approach, National Institute Economic Review, 214, 74–82.  Google Scholar
  58. Goodhart, C. A. E./Jensen, M. (2015): Currency School versus Banking School: an ongoing confrontation, Economic Thought, 4(2), 20–31.  Google Scholar
  59. Horst, M./Neyer, U. (2019): The impact of quantitative easing on bank loan supply and monetary policy implementation in the euro area, Review of Economics, 70(3), 229–265.  Google Scholar
  60. Lagos, R. (2010): Inside and outside money, Monetary economics, in: S. N. Durlauf and L. E. Blume (eds), Monetary Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, London.  Google Scholar
  61. McLeay, M./Radia, A./Thomas, R. (2014): Money creation in the modern economy, Bank of England, Quarterly Bulletin 2014Q1.  Google Scholar
  62. Schumpeter, J. A. (1954): History of economic analysis, Oxford University Press.  Google Scholar
  63. Taylor, J. (1993): Discretion versus policy rules in practice, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195–214.  Google Scholar
  64. Tobin, J. (1963): Commercial banks as creators of “money”, in: D. Carson (ed), Banking and Monetary Studies, Irwin Homewood, 408–419.  Google Scholar
  65. Tobin, J. (1969): A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 1(1), 15–29.  Google Scholar
  66. Van den End, J. W. (2019): Applying complexity theory to interest rates: evidence of critical transitions in the euro area, Credit and Capital Markets, 52(1), 1–33.  Google Scholar
  67. Werner, R. A. (2016): A lost century in economics: Three theories of banking and the conclusive evidence, International Review of Financial Analysis, 46, 361–379.  Google Scholar
  68. Woodford, M. (2003): Interest and prices, Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press.  Google Scholar
  69. Aberg, P./Corsi, M./Grossmann-Wirth, V./Hudepohl, T./Mudde, Y./Rosolin, T./Schobert, F. (2021): Demand for central bank reserves and monetary policy implementation frameworks: the case of the Eurosystem, ECB occasional paper, 282.  Google Scholar
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  71. Afonso, G./Kim, K./Martin, A./Nosal, A./Potter, S. M./Schulhofer-Wohl, S. (2020): Monetary Policy Implementation with an Ample Supply of Reserves, FRB Atlanta Working Paper, 2020-2.  Google Scholar
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  74. Bernanke, B. S./Mihov, I. (1998): Measuring Monetary Policy, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 869–902.  Google Scholar
  75. Berrospide, J. M./Edge, R. M. (2010): The Effects of Bank Capital on Lending: What Do We Know, and What Does It Mean?, International Journal of Central Banking, 6(34), 1–50.  Google Scholar
  76. Beyer, A./Nicoletti, G./Papadopoulou, N./Papsdorf, P./Rünstler, G./Schwarz, C./Sousa, J./Vergote, O. (2017): The transmission channels of monetary, macro- and microprudential policies and their interrelations, ECB occasional paper, 191.  Google Scholar
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  79. Brunnermeier, M. K./Koby, Y. (2018): The Reversal Interest Rate, NBER working paper, 25406.  Google Scholar
  80. Deutsche Bundesbank (2016): The macroeconomic impact of quantitative easing in the euro area, Monthly Report, June 2016, 29–53.  Google Scholar
  81. Deutsche Bundesbank (2017): The role of banks, non-banks and the central bank in the money creation process, Monhtly Report, April 2017, 13–33.  Google Scholar
  82. Diamond, W./Jiang, Z./Ma, Y. (2021): The Reserve Supply Channel of Unconventional Monetary Policy, Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research Paper.  Google Scholar
  83. Disyatat, P. (2008): Monetary policy implementation: Misconceptions and their consequences, BIS working paper, 269.  Google Scholar
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  102. Woodford, M. (2003): Interest and prices, Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press.  Google Scholar
  103. Aberg, P./Corsi, M./Grossmann-Wirth, V./Hudepohl, T./Mudde, Y./Rosolin, T./Schobert, F. (2021): Demand for central bank reserves and monetary policy implementation frameworks: the case of the Eurosystem, ECB occasional paper, 282.  Google Scholar
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  105. Afonso, G./Kim, K./Martin, A./Nosal, A./Potter, S. M./Schulhofer-Wohl, S. (2020): Monetary Policy Implementation with an Ample Supply of Reserves, FRB Atlanta Working Paper, 2020-2.  Google Scholar
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  109. Berrospide, J. M./Edge, R. M. (2010): The Effects of Bank Capital on Lending: What Do We Know, and What Does It Mean?, International Journal of Central Banking, 6(34), 1–50.  Google Scholar
  110. Beyer, A./Nicoletti, G./Papadopoulou, N./Papsdorf, P./Rünstler, G./Schwarz, C./Sousa, J./Vergote, O. (2017): The transmission channels of monetary, macro- and microprudential policies and their interrelations, ECB occasional paper, 191.  Google Scholar
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  113. Brunnermeier, M. K./Koby, Y. (2018): The Reversal Interest Rate, NBER working paper, 25406.  Google Scholar
  114. Deutsche Bundesbank (2016): The macroeconomic impact of quantitative easing in the euro area, Monthly Report, June 2016, 29–53.  Google Scholar
  115. Deutsche Bundesbank (2017): The role of banks, non-banks and the central bank in the money creation process, Monhtly Report, April 2017, 13–33.  Google Scholar
  116. Diamond, W./Jiang, Z./Ma, Y. (2021): The Reserve Supply Channel of Unconventional Monetary Policy, Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research Paper.  Google Scholar
  117. Disyatat, P. (2008): Monetary policy implementation: Misconceptions and their consequences, BIS working paper, 269.  Google Scholar
  118. Friedman, M./Schwartz, A. J. (1963): A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Princeton, Princeton University Press.  Google Scholar
  119. Gertler, M./Gilchrist, S. (1993): The role of credit market imperfections in the monetary transmission mechanism: arguments and evidence, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 43–64.  Google Scholar
  120. Gertler, M./ Karadi, P. (2013): QE 1 vs. 2 vs. 3.: A Framework for Analyzing Large-Scale Asset Purchases as a Monetary Policy Tool, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, 9(1), 5–53.  Google Scholar
  121. Goodfriend, M. (2000): Overcoming the zero lower bound on interest rate policy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 32, 1007–1035.  Google Scholar
  122. Goodfriend, M. (2002): Interest on reserves and monetary policy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 8, 77–84.  Google Scholar
  123. Goodhart, C. A. E. (1989): Money, Information and Uncertainty, Macmillan.  Google Scholar
  124. Goodhart, C. A. E. (2009): The Continuing Muddles of Monetary Theory: A Steadfast Refusal to Face Facts, Economica, 76, 821–830.  Google Scholar
  125. Goodhart, C. A. E. (2010): Money, credit and bank behaviour: need for a new approach, National Institute Economic Review, 214, 74–82.  Google Scholar
  126. Goodhart, C. A. E./Jensen, M. (2015): Currency School versus Banking School: an ongoing confrontation, Economic Thought, 4(2), 20–31.  Google Scholar
  127. Horst, M./Neyer, U. (2019): The impact of quantitative easing on bank loan supply and monetary policy implementation in the euro area, Review of Economics, 70(3), 229–265.  Google Scholar
  128. Lagos, R. (2010): Inside and outside money, Monetary economics, in: S. N. Durlauf and L. E. Blume (eds), Monetary Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, London.  Google Scholar
  129. McLeay, M./Radia, A./Thomas, R. (2014): Money creation in the modern economy, Bank of England, Quarterly Bulletin 2014Q1.  Google Scholar
  130. Schumpeter, J. A. (1954): History of economic analysis, Oxford University Press.  Google Scholar
  131. Taylor, J. (1993): Discretion versus policy rules in practice, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195–214.  Google Scholar
  132. Tobin, J. (1963): Commercial banks as creators of “money”, in: D. Carson (ed), Banking and Monetary Studies, Irwin Homewood, 408–419.  Google Scholar
  133. Tobin, J. (1969): A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 1(1), 15–29.  Google Scholar
  134. Van den End, J. W. (2019): Applying complexity theory to interest rates: evidence of critical transitions in the euro area, Credit and Capital Markets, 52(1), 1–33.  Google Scholar
  135. Werner, R. A. (2016): A lost century in economics: Three theories of banking and the conclusive evidence, International Review of Financial Analysis, 46, 361–379.  Google Scholar
  136. Woodford, M. (2003): Interest and prices, Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press.  Google Scholar
  137. Aberg, P./Corsi, M./Grossmann-Wirth, V./Hudepohl, T./Mudde, Y./Rosolin, T./Schobert, F. (2021): Demand for central bank reserves and monetary policy implementation frameworks: the case of the Eurosystem, ECB occasional paper, 282.  Google Scholar
  138. Acharya, V./Rajan, R. G. (2022): Liquidity, liquidity everywhere, not a drop to use – Why flooding banks with central bank reserves may not expand liquidity, CEPR Discussion Paper, DP16907.  Google Scholar
  139. Afonso, G./Kim, K./Martin, A./Nosal, A./Potter, S. M./Schulhofer-Wohl, S. (2020): Monetary Policy Implementation with an Ample Supply of Reserves, FRB Atlanta Working Paper, 2020-2.  Google Scholar
  140. Bekaert, G./Hoerova, M. (2014): The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility, ECB working paper, 1675.  Google Scholar
  141. Bernanke, B. S./Gertler, M. (1995): Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission, Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, 9(4), 27–48, Fall.  Google Scholar
  142. Bernanke, B. S./Mihov, I. (1998): Measuring Monetary Policy, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 869–902.  Google Scholar
  143. Berrospide, J. M./Edge, R. M. (2010): The Effects of Bank Capital on Lending: What Do We Know, and What Does It Mean?, International Journal of Central Banking, 6(34), 1–50.  Google Scholar
  144. Beyer, A./Nicoletti, G./Papadopoulou, N./Papsdorf, P./Rünstler, G./Schwarz, C./Sousa, J./Vergote, O. (2017): The transmission channels of monetary, macro- and microprudential policies and their interrelations, ECB occasional paper, 191.  Google Scholar
  145. Brunner, A. D. (1994): The federal funds rate and the implementation of monetary policy: estimating the Federal Reserve’s reaction function, International Finance Discussion paper, 466.  Google Scholar
  146. Brunnermeier, M. K./Eisenbach, T. M./Sannikov, Y. (2012): Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey, NBER working paper, 18102.  Google Scholar
  147. Brunnermeier, M. K./Koby, Y. (2018): The Reversal Interest Rate, NBER working paper, 25406.  Google Scholar
  148. Deutsche Bundesbank (2016): The macroeconomic impact of quantitative easing in the euro area, Monthly Report, June 2016, 29–53.  Google Scholar
  149. Deutsche Bundesbank (2017): The role of banks, non-banks and the central bank in the money creation process, Monhtly Report, April 2017, 13–33.  Google Scholar
  150. Diamond, W./Jiang, Z./Ma, Y. (2021): The Reserve Supply Channel of Unconventional Monetary Policy, Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research Paper.  Google Scholar
  151. Disyatat, P. (2008): Monetary policy implementation: Misconceptions and their consequences, BIS working paper, 269.  Google Scholar
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  232. Schumpeter, J. A. (1954): History of economic analysis, Oxford University Press.  Google Scholar
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Abstract

We model the behaviour of banks as a main driver of the changing components of the money multiplier (MM). So we provide behavioural underpinnings for the supply and demand for inside and outside money. We illustrate how the creation of large outside money balances by central banks induces behavioural changes, creating an environment characterised by a low MM and low market interest rates. The low regime reflects a state in which the functioning of the financial system changes fundamentally due to excess supply of reserves. This so-called excess liquidity trap has adverse economic consequences, is persistent, and cannot be solved by monetary policy alone. We argue that government and supervisory measures taken during the pandemic provide an example of supporting policies that are effective in escaping the excess liquidity trap.