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Schäfer, D., Semmler, W. Finanzmärkte, Arbeitsmärkte und Inflation – Beschleunigt die Zinspolitik der Zentralbank die Inflation und den Banken Crash?. Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, 92(2), 45-68. https://doi.org/10.3790/vjh.92.2.45
Schäfer, Dorothea and Semmler, Willi "Finanzmärkte, Arbeitsmärkte und Inflation – Beschleunigt die Zinspolitik der Zentralbank die Inflation und den Banken Crash?" Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 92.2, 2023, 45-68. https://doi.org/10.3790/vjh.92.2.45
Schäfer, Dorothea/Semmler, Willi (2023): Finanzmärkte, Arbeitsmärkte und Inflation – Beschleunigt die Zinspolitik der Zentralbank die Inflation und den Banken Crash?, in: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 92, iss. 2, 45-68, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/vjh.92.2.45
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Finanzmärkte, Arbeitsmärkte und Inflation – Beschleunigt die Zinspolitik der Zentralbank die Inflation und den Banken Crash?

Schäfer, Dorothea | Semmler, Willi

Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. 92 (2023), Iss. 2 : pp. 45–68

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Article Details

Publisher Name
Duncker & Humblot
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3790/vjh.92.2.45
Language
German
Pages
24
Keywords

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Author Details

Dorothea Schäfer, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung und Jönköping International Business School

  • Dorothea Schäfer, Prof. Dr., Forschungsdirektorin Finanzmärkte am DIW Berlin, Adjunct Professor, Jönköping International Business School, Editor-in-Chief von Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung und von Eurasian Econonomic Review, Associate Editor von International Review of Economics and Finance.
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Willi Semmler, The New School for Social Research, New York

  • Willi Semmler, Prof. Dr., Arnhold Professor of International Cooperation and Development, New School for Social Research (NSSR), Forschungsfelder und hochrangige Veröffentlichungen in Makroökonomie, Makroökonometrie, Finanzökonomie, Wachstum, Industrieorganisation, Ökonomie des Klimawandels, Internationale Finanzen. Affiliationen: Wissenschaftler am Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, am IIASA, Laxenburg, Österreich, an der Universität La Sapienza, Rom, und and der Universität Bielefeld. Mehr Informationen https://drive.google.com/‌file/‌d/‌1YR‌LtVp‌nLqDZ‌AcjU‌xRdMN‌XOUy‌EtaE‌42TS‌/view
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Abstract

Using interest rates, central banks are currently trying to reduce inflation and stabilize financial markets. They claim they have separate instruments for each problem, but do they? It is undeniable that the fiscal and monetary policy rescue measures deployed during the Corona crisis have created enormous liquidity for companies, households, and financial institutions. However, it remains unclear whether this liquidity led to excessive demand, thus fuelling inflation that can and should be curbed via interest hikes. Energy, raw materials, and food were the main price drivers. Nevertheless, the wage-price spiral, although it has not yet started, is already being fought with historically unique interest rate hikes with the aim of weakening the labor markets. If interest rates remain high, but external forces with persistent effects emerge and keep inflation rates high, significant ’collateral damage’ can be expected, both in the banking sector and in labor markets. In the USA, the first victims of asset deflation are already visible in the banking sector. As an additional cost factor, every interest rate increase directly increases price pressure, making it more difficult to take out loans, making investments in decarbonization and climate protection more expensive, thus increasing the risk of not making the necessary investments, and in particular weakens the bargaining power of particularly vulnerable employment groups. Alternative measures to combat inflation, for example more investments in bottle neck sectors, must be outlined, discussed, and implemented. So far, this has not happened to a sufficient extent. Central banks seem to be missing two goals – reducing inflation and stabilizing financial markets – simultaneously due to the rapid and strong interest rate hikes. Credit conditions are deteriorating, insolvencies are increasing and Germany, in particular, has already slipped into recession.

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