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The perception of Brexit uncertainty and how it affects markets

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Priberny, C., Kreuzer, C., Huther, J. The perception of Brexit uncertainty and how it affects markets. Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, 99999(), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.2025.1457101
Priberny, Christopher; Kreuzer, Christian and Huther, Johannes "The perception of Brexit uncertainty and how it affects markets" Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital 99999., 2025, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.2025.1457101
Priberny, Christopher/Kreuzer, Christian/Huther, Johannes (2025): The perception of Brexit uncertainty and how it affects markets, in: Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, vol. 99999, iss. , 1-17, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.2025.1457101
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The perception of Brexit uncertainty and how it affects markets

Priberny, Christopher | Kreuzer, Christian | Huther, Johannes

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. (2025), Online First : pp. 1–17

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Article Details

Publisher Name
Duncker & Humblot
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.2025.1457101
Language
English
Pages
17
Keywords

Author Details

Prof. Dr. Christopher Priberny: Corresponding author, Deutsche Bundesbank University of Applied Sciences, 57627 Hachenburg, Germany and Department of Finance, University of Regensburg, 93040 Regensburg, Germany.

Dr. Christian Kreuzer: Department of Finance, University of Regensburg, 93040 Regensburg, Germany.

Johannes Huther: Deutsche Bundesbank, 60006 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

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Abstract

We empirically study the perception of political uncertainty by UK’s stock markets, covering the entire Brexit period from January 2013 to March 2020. We find that indices dominated by the largest capitalized companies anticipate negatively perceived events already prior to the actual event, whereas positive events only effect them on the event day or following. In contrast, the FTSE 250, composed of medium-sized companies, tends to move prior to positively perceived events. Furthermore, we investigate the daily perception of Brexit measured by a metric based on Google Trends. Our results show that perception significantly affects all major UK indices.

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Christopher Priberny / Christian Kreuzer / Johannes Huther: The perception of Brexit uncertainty and how it affects markets 1
Abstract 1
I. Introduction 1
II. Literature & Hypotheses 3
III. Data & Methodology 5
1. Data 5
a) Events 5
b) Market returns 6
c) Google Trends 6
2. Methodology 7
a) Brexit events 7
b) Daily Sentiment 8
IV. Results 9
1. Positively and negatively perceived events 9
2. Market reactions on public sentiment measured by Google Trends 12
V. Conclusion 13
References 13
Appendix 16

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