Cite JOURNAL ARTICLE
Demografische Effekte auf das künftige Arbeitsangebot in Deutschland – eine Dekompositionsanalyse
Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, Vol. 129 (2009), Iss. 4 : pp. 571–595
3 Citations (CrossRef)
Johann Fuchs, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA), Regensburger Straße 104, 90478 Nürnberg.
Demografie und Fachkräftemangel
Bundesgesundheitsblatt - Gesundheitsforschung - Gesundheitsschutz, Vol. 56 (2013), Iss. 3 P.399https://doi.org/10.1007/s00103-012-1616-y [Citations: 17]
Wirtschaftliche Implikationen des demografischen Wandels
Kann ein Anstieg der Arbeitszeit den Rückgang des Arbeitskräfteangebots kompensieren?Wanger, Susanne | Weber, Brigitte | Fuchs, Johann
2013https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-00307-4_22 [Citations: 6]
Bevölkerungsentwicklung und soziale Pflegeversicherung in DeutschlandZuchandke, Andy | Bowles, David | Greiner, Wolfgang | von der Schulenburg, J.-Matthias Graf
Zeitschrift für Sozialreform, Vol. 59 (2016), Iss. 4 P.433https://doi.org/10.1515/zsr-2013-0402 [Citations: 3]
This paper provides a decomposition of the projected change in the overall labour force into three parts. The first, called the "demographic component„, shows the effects of fertility, mortality and a changing age structure of the population. The second effect is the migration component. This part is due to the cumulative net inflow of migrants, but includes their reproductive behaviour as well. Changes in the participation rates give the third effect, the participation rate component. The decomposition was done by comparing different labour force scenarios up to 2050. The method can easily be extended for decomposition into more than three factors. According to our results, the negative impact of the demographic factor on the labour force is very clear and is caused by the projected ageing of population to a great extent. Neither a strong increase in labour participation nor high immigration flows can stop the downward trend in labour force. Keeping the labour force constant requires an annual net migration of about 400,000 persons. This would be approximately twice as much as during the last 50 years. As the age structure is almost given and increasing fertility rates only have positive effects in the very long run, the projected decline in labour force should be taken as a fact.
Received: January 31, 2008
Accepted: April 2, 2009