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Inflation, Unemployment and Monetary Control

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Brunner, K., Neumann, M. (Eds.) (1979). Inflation, Unemployment and Monetary Control. Collected papers from the 1973 - 1976 Konstanz Seminars. Duncker & Humblot. https://doi.org/10.3790/978-3-428-44314-7
Brunner, Karl and Neumann, Manfred J. M.. Inflation, Unemployment and Monetary Control: Collected papers from the 1973 - 1976 Konstanz Seminars. Duncker & Humblot, 1979. Book. https://doi.org/10.3790/978-3-428-44314-7
Brunner, K, Neumann, M (eds.) (1979): Inflation, Unemployment and Monetary Control: Collected papers from the 1973 - 1976 Konstanz Seminars, Duncker & Humblot, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/978-3-428-44314-7

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Inflation, Unemployment and Monetary Control

Collected papers from the 1973 - 1976 Konstanz Seminars

Editors: Brunner, Karl | Neumann, Manfred J. M.

Beihefte zu / Supplements to »Kredit und Kapital«, Vol. 5

(1979)

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Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Contents V
Contributors VII
Preface IX
Rudiger Dornbusch: A Portfolio Balance Model of the Open Economy 1
REFERENCES 25
Rudiger Dornbusch: Capital Mobility and Portfolio Balance 27
1. CAPITAL MOBILITY AND PORTFOLIO BALANCE 29
2. FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION 33
3. DOMESTIC ASSETS AND THE SMALL-COUNTRY MODEL 34
5. FORWARD-MARKET AND ASSET-MARKET EQUILIBRIUM 43
REFERENCES 51
Larry A. Sjaastad: On the Monetary Theory of the Balance of Payments: An Extension 52
SUMMARY 71
Pentti J. K. Kouri: The Hypothesis of Offsetting Capital Flows: A Case Study of Germany 72
1. DEVELOPMENT OF THE HYPOTHESIS 74
1.1. The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments 74
1.2 Derivation of the Capital-Flow Equation 76
1.3 Estimation Problems 79
2. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 80
2.1 Explanatory Variables in the Capital-Flow Equation 80
2.2 Empirical Results 83
2.3 Inclusion of the Forward Premium 85
2.4 Partitioning of the Domestic Assets 87
2.5 Estimation of the Interest-Rate Equation 90
2.6 Summary of Results 92
3. IMPLICATIONS OF THE RESULTS 92
3.1 Behavior of the Balance of Payments 92
3.2 Effect of Speculative Disturbances 92
3.3 Independent Monetary Policy with a Fixed Exchange Rate 93
3.4 Concluding Remarks 94
APPENDIX: DATA SOURCES 94
REFERENCES 95
Michael J. Hamburger: The Demand for Money in an Open Economy: Germany and the United Kingdom 97
1. THE DEMAND FOR MONEY IN AN OPEN ECONOMY 99
2. THE EVIDENCE FROM GERMANY 101
2.1 Basic Results 101
2.2 Alternative Interest Rates 104
2.3 Stability 107
3. THE EVIDENCE FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM 109
3.1 Basic Results 109
3.2 Stability 115
4. CONCLUSION 117
REFERENCES 119
Manfred J. M. Neumann: Price Expectations and the Interest Rate in an Open Economy: Germany,r1960 - 1972 122
1. THE MODEL 124
2. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 131
3. CONCLUSIONS 145
APPENDIX 1 146
APPENDIX 2 149
REFERENCES 151
Jacob A. Frenkel & Richard M. Levich: Transaction Costs and the Efficiency of International Capital Markets:rTranquil versus Turbulent Periods 153
1. INTEREST ARBITRAGE AND TRANSACTION COSTS: THEORETICAL ASPECTS 154
2. TRANSACTION COSTS: METHODOLOGY AND ESTIMATES 157
3. INTEREST ARBITRAGE AND TRANSACTION COSTS: EMPIRICAL ASPECTS 166
3.1 Transformation of Data and Transaction Costs 166
3.2 Deviations from Parity: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods 168
4. UNEXPLOITED PROFITS AND A SIMPLE TRADING RULE 170
5. A TIME-SERIES APPROACH 174
6. CONCLUDING REMARKS 177
APPENDIX ON DATA 181
REFERENCES 183
Robert J. Barro: Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States 186
1. ANALYSIS OF MONEY GROWTH 187
2. ANALYSIS OF UNEMPLOYMENT 196
3. SOME POLICY IMPLICATIONS 211
4. CONCLUSIONS AND EXTENSIONS 212
REFERENCES 213
Allan H. Meitzer: Anticipated Inflation and Unanticipated Price Change — A Test ofrthe Price-Specie Flow Theory and the Phillips Curve 215
APPENDIX 1 243
APPENDIX 2 245
REFERENCES 246
Benjamin M. Friedman: Targets, Instruments, and Indicators of Monetary Policy 248
1. ELEMENTARY CONCEPTS 250
2. THE INSTRUMENT PROBLEM 253
3. LEVELS OF THE MONETARY POLICY CONTROL PROBLEM 256
4. THE INTERMEDIATE TARGET PROBLEM 264
4.1. The Problem 264
4.2 The Intermediate Target Variable Procedure 268
4.3 Optimal Procedure with Information Lags 272
4.4 Concluding Remarks 274
5. INFORMATION PROBLEMS: DATA LAGS AND STRUCTURAL LAGS 276
6. THE INDICATOR PROBLEM 277
7. CONCLUSIONS 283
REFERENCES 284
Robert H. Rasche: Optimal Control and Short-Term Monetary Policy Decisions 288
1. OPTIMAL CONTROL MODELS FOR ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY 290
2. THE LOSS (OBJECTIVE) FUNCTION 291
3. A MULTIPERIOD MODEL OF THE CONTROL PROBLEM 293
REFERENCES 302
Helmut Schlesinger: Recent Experiences with Monetary Policy in the Federal Republic of Germany 303
BASIC CONDITIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY 304
THE BASIC INSTITUTIONAL CONDITIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY 305
A TARGET FOR MONETARY GROWTH 308
CENTRAL-BANK MONEY AS THE TARGET 312
THE INDICATOR PROBLEM 314
THEORY AND PRACTICE OF MONEY-STOCK CONTROL 316
REFERENCES 320
Kurt Schiltknecht: Monetary Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates: The Swiss Case 321
1. THE SWISS ECONOMY IN THE POSTWAR PERIOD 322
2. THE CHOICE OF A MONETARY POLICY TARGET 325
3. THE CONTROL OF MONEY-STOCK GROWTH 328
4. CONTROL OF THE MONETARY BASE 331
5. FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES: 1973-1976 334
6. EFFECTS OF THE 1973-76 MONETARY POLICY 342
OUTLOOK 349
REFERENCES 349
Michael Parkin: Inflation and Unemployment with Indexed Wages: Some AnalyticalrIssues 350
1. THE ABSTRACTIONS AND THE "STORY" 352
2. THE BUILDING BLOCKS 354
3. THE COMPLETE MODEL 359
4. CONCLUSIONS 365
REFERENCES 367