Der gesetzliche Mindestlohn in Deutschland: Einsichten und Handlungsempfehlungen aus der Evaluationsforschung
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Der gesetzliche Mindestlohn in Deutschland: Einsichten und Handlungsempfehlungen aus der Evaluationsforschung
Arni, Patrick | Eichhorst, Werner | Pestel, Nico | Spermann, Alexander | Zimmermann, Klaus F.
Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, Vol. 134 (2014), Iss. 2 : pp. 149–182
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Patrick Arni, IZA, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit, Postfach 7240, 53072 Bonn
Werner Eichhorst, IZA, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit, Postfach 7240, 53072 Bonn
Nico Pestel, IZA, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit, Postfach 7240, 53072 Bonn
Alexander Spermann, IZA, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit, Postfach 7240, 53072 Bonn
Klaus F. Zimmermann, IZA, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit, Postfach 7240, 53072 Bonn
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Abstract
A legal minimum wage of 8.50 € per hour will be introduced in Germany as of January 1, 2015. This paper summarizes and evaluates national and international research findings about minimum wages. Using the IZA micro-simulation model, it also simulates employment and distributional effects as well as fiscal effects of the reform and compares them with other studies. Whereas employment losses cannot be excluded and poverty reductions seem not to be likely, the evidence is not strong enough to make clear-cut predictions for Germany. Therefore, the study argues for a systematic and independent scientific evaluation of the newly introduced legal minimum wage in Germany. This could provide policymakers and voters with solid empirical evidence, and offer them a fair chance to suggest modifications through the electoral process.