Menu Expand

You Don’t Need to Win, Just Don’t Lose: The Effect of Draw Outcomes on Soccer Coach Dismissals

Cite JOURNAL ARTICLE

Style

Elaad, G., Jelnov, A., Kantor, J. You Don’t Need to Win, Just Don’t Lose: The Effect of Draw Outcomes on Soccer Coach Dismissals. Applied Economics Quarterly, 64(4), 351-369. https://doi.org/10.3790/aeq.64.4.351
Elaad, Guy; Jelnov, Artyom and Kantor, Jeffrey "You Don’t Need to Win, Just Don’t Lose: The Effect of Draw Outcomes on Soccer Coach Dismissals" Applied Economics Quarterly 64.4, , 351-369. https://doi.org/10.3790/aeq.64.4.351
Elaad, Guy/Jelnov, Artyom/Kantor, Jeffrey: You Don’t Need to Win, Just Don’t Lose: The Effect of Draw Outcomes on Soccer Coach Dismissals, in: Applied Economics Quarterly, vol. 64, iss. 4, 351-369, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/aeq.64.4.351

Format

You Don’t Need to Win, Just Don’t Lose: The Effect of Draw Outcomes on Soccer Coach Dismissals

Elaad, Guy | Jelnov, Artyom | Kantor, Jeffrey

Applied Economics Quarterly, Vol. 64 (2018), Iss. 4 : pp. 351–369

Additional Information

Article Details

Pricing

Author Details

Guy Elaad, Department of Economics & Business Administration, Ariel University, Ariel, 40700, Israel.

Artyom Jelnov, Department of Economics & Business Administration, Ariel University, Ariel, 40700, Israel.

Jeffrey Kantor, Department of Accounting, Ariel University, Ariel, 40700, Israel.

References

  1. Audas, R. / Dobson, S. /Goddard, J. (2002): “The impact of managerial change on team performance in professional sports,” Journal of Economics and Busines, 54, 633–650.  Google Scholar
  2. Bachan, R. / Reilly, B. /Witt, R. (2008): “The hazard of being an English football league manager: empirical estimates for three recent league seasons,” Journal of the Operational Research Society, 59, 884–891.  Google Scholar
  3. Barros, C. P. / Frick, B. / Passos, J. (2009): “Coaching for survival: the hazards of head coach careers in the German Bundesliga,” Applied Economics, 41 (25), 3303–3311.  Google Scholar
  4. De Dios Tena J. / Forrest, D. (2007): “Within-season dismissal of football coaches: statistical analysis of causes and consequences,” European Journal of Operational Research, 181, 362–373.  Google Scholar
  5. De Schryver, T. / Eisinga, R. N. (2011): “Piecewise linear regression techniques to analyse the timing of head coach dismissals in Dutch soccer clubs,” IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 22, 129–137.  Google Scholar
  6. Elaad, G./ Jelnov, A. / Kantor, J. (2017): “You don’t have to succeed, just don’t fail: when do soccer coaches get fired?,” Managerial and Decision Economics.  Google Scholar
  7. Friedman, M. (1953): “The methodology of positive economics,” in Essays in Positive Economics. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press.  Google Scholar
  8. Garicano, L. / Palacios-Huerta, I. / Prendergast, C. (2005): “Favoritism under social pressure,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 87 (2), 208 –216.  Google Scholar
  9. Holmes, P. (2011): “Win or go home: why college football coaches get fired,” Journal of Sports Economics, 12 (2), 157 –178.  Google Scholar
  10. Kahneman D. / Tversky, A. (1984): “Choises, values, and frames,” American Psychologist, 39, 341–350.  Google Scholar
  11. Koning, R. H. (2011): “Home advantage in professional tennis,” Journal of Sports Sciences, 29 (1), 19 –27.  Google Scholar
  12. Romer, D. (2006): “Do firms maximize? evidence from professional football,” Journal of Political Economy, 114 (2), 340 –365.  Google Scholar
  13. Salomo, S. /Teichmann, K. (2000): “The relationship of performance and managerial succession in the German premier soccer League,” European Journal of Sport Management, 7, 99–119.  Google Scholar
  14. Stadtmann, G. (2006): “Frequent news and pure signals: the case of a publicly traded football club,” Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 53, 485–504.  Google Scholar
  15. Sutter, M./ Kocher, M. G. (2004): “Favoritism of agents–the case of referees’ home bias,” Journal of Economic Psychology, 25 (4), 461 –469.  Google Scholar
  16. Terry, P. C. /Walrond, N./ Carron, A. V. (1998): “The influence of game location on athletes’ psychological states,” Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport, 1, 29 –37.  Google Scholar
  17. Van Ours, J. C. / van Tuijl, M. A. (2016): “In-season head-coach dismissals and the performance of professional football teams,” Economic Inquiry, 54 (1), 591 –604.  Google Scholar
  18. Wagner, S. (2010): “Managerial succession and organizational performance – evidence from the German soccer league,” Managerial and Decision Economics, 31, 415 –430.  Google Scholar

Abstract

Abstract

This article deals with circumstances leading to the dismissal of a soccer coach. It is based on the performance of the top four professional soccer leagues in England over the past 12 years. We find that dismissals of coaches take place after losses, but not after draws. This is true even when the draw is disappointing and was unexpected. The scoring method in soccer leagues is biased in favor of wins, but we find that dismissals are linked with losses. The present article questions whether the aim of a dismissal is in line with the objective function of maximizing a soccer club’s league points.

JEL classifications: Z22, Z20, J50

Keywords: Soccer Coach, Risk Aversion, Performance, Dismissal

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Guy Elaad / Artyom Jelnov / Jeffrey Kantor: You Don’t Need to Win, Just Don’t Lose: The Effect of Draw Outcomes on Soccer Coach Dismissals 1
Abstract 1
1. Introduction 1
2. Literature Review 2
3. Theory 4
4. Data 5
5. Variables 7
5.1 The Number of League Points Attained by the Club in the last T Matches as a Predicting Variable of Coach Dismissal 7
5.2 The Effect of a Draw on the Likelihood of Coach Dismissal 7
6. Estimation 9
6.1 The Number of League Points Collected in the last T Matches Predicts Coach Dismissal 9
6.2 The Effect of a Draw on the Likelihood of Coach Dismissal 1
7. Concluding Remarks 1
References 1