Do Commodity Index Traders Destabilize Agricultural Futures Prices
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Do Commodity Index Traders Destabilize Agricultural Futures Prices
Bohl, Martin T. | Javed, Farrukh | Stephan, Patrick M.
Applied Economics Quarterly, Vol. 59 (2013), Iss. 2 : pp. 125–148
9 Citations (CrossRef)
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Department of Economics, Westphalian Wilhelminian University of Münster, Am Stadtgraben 9, 48143 Münster, Germany.
Department of Statistics, Lund University, Box 7080, 220 07 Lund, Sweden.
Department of Economics, Westphalian Wilhelminian University of Münster, Am Stadtgraben 9, 48143 Münster, Germany.
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Abstract
Motivated by repeated price spikes and crashes over the last decade, we investigate whether the intensive investment activities of commodity index traders (CITs) have destabilized agricultural futures markets. Using a stochastic volatility model, we treat conditional volatility as an unobserved component, and analyze whether it has been affected by the expected and unexpected open interest of CITs. However, with respect to twelve increasingly financialized grain, livestock, and soft commodities, we do not find robust evidence that this is the case. We thus conclude that justifying a tighter regulation of CITs by blaming them for more volatile agricultural futures markets appears to be unwarranted.
JEL Classification: G10, G18, Q14