Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Development in Transition Economies: A Panel VAR GMM Approach
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Cite JOURNAL ARTICLE
Style
Format
Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Development in Transition Economies: A Panel VAR GMM Approach
Applied Economics Quarterly, Vol. 65 (2019), Iss. 3 : pp. 139–187
2 Citations (CrossRef)
Additional Information
Article Details
Pricing
Author Details
Bellos, Dr. Sotirios K., University of Sheffield, International Faculty, City College, Business Administration and Economics Department, 3, Leontos Sofou Street, Thessaloniki, 54626, Greece; National Bank of Greece, Mid-Corporate Special Assets Unit.
Cited By
-
The Nexus between Financial and Investment developments and State Capacity. The case of G-20
Bellos, Sotirios K. | Golitsis, PetrosJournal of Government and Economics, Vol. 11 (2023), Iss. P.100081
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jge.2023.100081 [Citations: 2] -
GENİŞ KARADENİZ BÖLGESİNDE ASKERİ HARCAMA VE ÜLKE KIRILGANLIĞI İLİŞKİSİ / The Relationship between Military Expenditure and State Fragility in Wider Black Sea Region
GÜNGÖR, Bayram
Uluslararası Ekonomi İşletme ve Politika Dergisi, Vol. 5 (2021), Iss. 1 P.62
https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.887420 [Citations: 0]
References
-
Agostino, G. / Dunne, J. P. / Pieroni, L. (2012): “Corruption, Military Spending and Growth”, Defense and Peace Economics, 236, 591–604, doi:10.1080/10242694.2012.663579.
Google Scholar -
Ahmed, A. D. (2012): “Debt-Burden, military spending and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A dynamic panel data analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 235, 485–506.
Google Scholar -
Aizenmann, J. / Glick, R. (2003): “Military Expenditure, threats, and growth”, NBER Working Paper 9618.
Google Scholar -
Aizenmann, J. / Glick, R. (2006): “Military Expenditure, threats, and growth”, Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 152, 129–155, doi: 10.1080/09638190600689095.
Google Scholar -
Alami, R. (2002): “Military Debt: Perspectives from the Experience of Arab Countries”, Defense and Peace Economics, 131, 13–30.
Google Scholar -
Alexander, W. R. J. (1995): “Defence Spending: Burden or Growth – Promoting?”, Defence and Peace Economics, 62, 13–25.
Google Scholar -
Alexander, W. R. J. (2012): “The Defence-Debt nexus: Evidence from the high-income members of NATO”, Defence and Peace Economics, 242, 133–145.
Google Scholar -
Alguacil, M. / Cuadros, A. / Orts, V. (2004): “Does Saving Really Matter for Growth? Mexico (1970–2000)”, Journal of International Development, 16, 2.
Google Scholar -
Antonakis, N. (2002): Εφαρμογές Οικονομικών της Άμυνας στην Ελληνική Οικονομία, Εκδό-σεις Παπαζήση, Athens.
Google Scholar -
Atesoglu, H. S. / Mueller, M. J. (1990): “Defense Spending and Economic Growth”, Defence Economics, 21, 19–27.
Google Scholar -
Ball, N. (1983): “Defense and Development: A Critique of the Benoit study”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 31 April: 507–524.
Google Scholar -
Barbone, L. / Zalduendo, J. (1996): EU Accession and Economic Growth. The Challenge for Central and Eastern European Countries, World Bank.
Google Scholar -
Bellos, S. K. (2019): “Natural Resources, Energy Dependency and their association with Institutional and Growth – related variables in the Black Sea and Southeast European region”, Applied Economics Quarterly, 65, 1, 1–43, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3790/aeq.65.1.1.
Google Scholar -
Benoit, E. (1972): “Growth effects of defense in developing countries”, International Development Review, 14, 1,2–10.
Google Scholar -
Benoit, E. (1973): Defense and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Lexington: Lexington Books.
Google Scholar -
Benoit, E. (1978): “Growth and defense in developing countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26 January: 271–280.
Google Scholar -
Berteau, D./ Cipoletti, T. J. / Sanders, G. / Doherty, M. / Fanlo, A. (2015): “European Defense Trends: Briefing Update”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, National Security Program on Industry and Resources.
Google Scholar -
Bing-Fu, C. / Liming, Z. (2006): “The determinants of China’s defense expenditure before and after transition”, Conflict Management and Peace Science, 23, 227–44 doi:10.1080/07388940600837730.
Google Scholar -
Blank, S. (2008): “The Strategic Importance of Central Asia: An American View”, Parameters, 38 (1), 73–87.
Google Scholar -
Brzezinsky, Z. (1997): The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives, Basic Books, New York.
Google Scholar -
Brzoska, M. (1983): “The Military Related External Debt of Third World Countries”, Journal of Peace Research, 203, 271–277.
Google Scholar -
Cappelen, A. / Gleditsch, N. P. / Bjerkholt, O. (1984): “Military spending and economic growth in the OECD countries”, Journal of Peace Research, 214, 827–838.
Google Scholar -
Chan, S. (1985): “The Impact of Defense Spending on Economic Performance: A Survey of Evidence and Problems”, Orbis, 293, 403–34.
Google Scholar -
Chang, T. / Fang, W. / Wen, L. F. (2001): “Defense spending, economic growth and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan and Mainland China, 1952–1995”, Applied Economics, 33, 1289–99, doi:10.1080/00036840122529.
Google Scholar -
Chang, T. / Lee, C. C. / Hung, K. / Lee, K. H. (2013): “Does Military Spending Really Matter for Economic Growth in China and G7 countries: The Roles of Dependency and Heterogeneity”, Defence and Peace Economics, 252, 177–191, doi: 10.1080/10242694.2013.763460.
Google Scholar -
Chen, C. H. (1993): “Causality between defense spending and economic growth: The case of Mainland China”, Journal of Economic Studies, 20, 37–43, doi:10.1108/01443589310048145.
Google Scholar -
Chen, A. (2009): “Thirty years of Chinese Reform – Transition from Planned Economy to Market Economy”, Asian Social Science, 53, 52–56.
Google Scholar -
Chen, S. / Feffer. J. (2009): “China’s Military Spending: Soft Rise of Hard Threat?”, Asian Perspective, 334, 47–67.
Google Scholar -
Chletsos, M. / Kollias, C (1995): “Defense Spending and growth in Greece 1974–1990: some preliminary econometric results“, Applied Economics, 27, 883–890.
Google Scholar -
Chowdbury, A. R. (1991): “A Causal Analysis of Defense Spending and Economic Growth”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 351, 73–113.
Google Scholar -
Chun, C. K. (2010): “Do Oil Exports Fuel Defense Spending?”, Strategic Studies Institute, Carlisle.
Google Scholar -
CIA, (1975): “The Economic Impact of Soviet Military Spending”, Intelligence Report, ER-IR 75–3, https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000380724.pdf.
Google Scholar -
Comunale, M. (2017): “A Panel VAR Analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU”, ECB Working Paper Series, No 2026.
Google Scholar -
De Nicolo, G. / Geadah, S. / Rozhkov, D. (2003): “Financial Development in the CIS-7 Countries: Bridging the Great Divide”, IMF Working Paper, WP/03/ 205.
Google Scholar -
Deger, S. (1981): “Human Resources, Government Education Expenditure and the Military Burden in Less Developed Countries”, London Birkbeck College Discussion Paper, No 109.
Google Scholar -
Deger, S. / Smith, S. (1983): “Military Expenditure and growth in less developed countries”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 282, 335–353.
Google Scholar -
DeGrasse, R. W. (1983): Military Expansion, Economic Decline, M.E Sharpe Inc, Armonk, NY.
Google Scholar -
Dimitraki, O. / Menla Ali, F. (2013): “The Long-run Causal Relationship between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in China: Revisited”, Defence and Peace Economics, doi:10.1080/0242694.2013.810024.
Google Scholar -
Dixon, W. / Moon, B. (1986): “The Military Burden and Basic Human Needs”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 30, 660–684.
Google Scholar -
Domar, E. (1946): “Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth and Employment”, Econometrica, 142, 137–147.
Google Scholar -
Dunne, J. P. (2003): “Military Expenditure and Debt in Small Industrialized Economies: A Panel Analysis”, Defense and Peace Economics, 152, 125–132.
Google Scholar -
Dunne, J. P. / Nikolaidou, E. / Mylonidis, N. (2003): “The demand for military spending in the peripheral economies of Europe”, Defence and Peace Economics, 146, 447–460, DOI:10.1080/1024269032000085215.
Google Scholar -
Dunne, J. P. / Smith, R. (1990): “Military Expenditure and Unemployment in the OECD”, Defence Economics, 1, 57–74.
Google Scholar -
Dunne, J. P., / Vougas, D. (1999): “Military spending and economic growth in South Africa”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 434, 521–537.
Google Scholar -
Frederiksen, P. C. / Looney, R. E. (1983): “Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Developing Countries”, Armed Forces and Society, 9: 633–645.
Google Scholar -
Furuoka, F. / Mikio, O. / Karim, M. A. (2014): “Military Expenditure and Economic Development in China: An Empirical Enquiry”, Defence and Peace Economics, doi: 10.1080/10242694.2014.898383.
Google Scholar -
Gidadhubli, R., G. (2013): “Eurasian Economic Union: Russia’s Quest to Re-Emerge as a Major Global Power”, The IUP Journal of International Relations, 7 (1), 36–44.
Google Scholar -
Gleditsch, N. P. P. / Wallensteen, M. / Eriksson, M. / Sollenberg / Strand, H. (2002): “Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset”, Journal of Peace Research, 395: 615–637.
Google Scholar -
Gunluk – Senesen, G. / Sezgin, S. (2002): “Turkey’s defence expenditures and debt burden”, Paper presented at the 6th Middlesex Conference on Economics and Security, June 2002, London.
Google Scholar -
Harrod, R. F. (1939): “An Essay in Dynamic Theory”, The Economic Journal 49 193, 14–33.
Google Scholar -
Haveman, J. D. / Deardorff, A. V. / Stern, R. M. (1991): “Some Economic Effects of Unilateral and Multilateral Reductions in Military Expenditures in the Major Industrialized and Developing Countries”, Research Seminar in International Economics, Seminar Discussion Paper No 270.
Google Scholar -
Heo, U. (2000): “The Defence – Growth Nexus in the United States Revised”, American Politics Quarterly, 281, pp 110–127.
Google Scholar -
Iimi, A. (2005): “Urbanization and Development of Infrastructure in the East Asian Region”, Japan Bank for International Cooperation, 10, 88–109.
Google Scholar -
Joerding, W. (1986): “Economic Growth and Defense Spending: Granger Causality in Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 21, 35–40.
Google Scholar -
Kalaitzidakis, P. / Tzouvelekas, V. (2011): “Military spending and the growth-maximizing allocation of public capital: a cross-country empirical analysis”, Economic Inquiry, 49, 1029–1041, doi: 10.1111/j.1465–7295.2009.00242.x.
Google Scholar -
Karnaukhova, O. / Udovikina, A. / Christiansen, B. (2018): Economic and Geopolitical Perspectives of the Commonwealth of Independent States and Eurasia (Advances in Electronic Government, Digital Divide, and Regional Development), IGI Global, Hershey.
Google Scholar -
Kennedy, G. (1974): The Military in the Third World, London: Duckworth.
Google Scholar -
Kollias, C. / Manolas, G. / Paleologou, S. Z. (2004): “Defense Expenditure and economic growth in the European Union: A causality analysis”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 265, 553–569.
Google Scholar -
Kugler, T. / Kang, K. K. / Kugler, J. / Arbetman-Rabinowitz, M. (2012): “Demographic and Economic Consequences of Conflict”, International Studies Quarterly, 1–12, doi: 10.1111/isqu.12002.
Google Scholar -
Kurmanalieva, E. / Fedorov, K. (2011): “CIS Countries: Primary Macroeconomic Indicators”, Eurasian Development Bank, Data and Reviews.
Google Scholar -
Kusi, N. K. (1994): “Economic Growth and defense spending in developing countries: A causal analysis”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 381, pp. 152–159.
Google Scholar -
Landau, D. (1993): “The Economic Impact of Military Expenditures”, The World Bank, Policy Research Working Papers, WPS 1138.
Google Scholar -
Looney, R. E. (1995): “Defense Expenditure and Savings in Pakistan: Do Allocations to the Military reduce National Savings?”, Savings and Development, 19 (2), 213–230.
Google Scholar -
Looney, R. E. / Frederiksen, P. C. (1986): “Defense Expenditure, External Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Peace Research, 234, 329–338.
Google Scholar -
Mackinder, H. J. (1904): “The Geographical Pivot of History”, The Geographical Journal, 23 (4), 421–437.
Google Scholar -
Maizels, A./ Nissanke, M (1986): “The Determinants of Military Expenditures in Developing Countries”, World Development, 149, 1125–1140.
Google Scholar -
Malizard, J. / Droff, J. (2014): “Economic versus Strategic Constraint: The asymmetric behavior of defense spending in France”, Document de travail ART-Dev 2014-09.
Google Scholar -
Masih, A. M. M. / Masih, R. / Hasan, M. S. (1997): “New evidence from an alternative methodological approach to the defense spending-economic growth causality issue in the case of Mainland China”, Journal of Economic Studies, 24, 123–40. doi:10.1108/01443589710167347.
Google Scholar -
McDonald, B. D. / Eger, R. (2010): “The Defense-Growth Relationship: An Economic Investigation into Post-Soviet States”, Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 161, Article 5, 1–26.
Google Scholar -
Meng, B. / Lucyshyn, W. / Li, X. (2013): “Defence Expenditure and Income Inequality: Evidence on Co-Integration and Causality for China”, Defence and Peace Economics, 1–14, doi: 10.1080/10242694.2013/810026.
Google Scholar -
Menla Ali, F. / Dimitraki, O. (2014): “Military Spending and Economic Growth in China: A Regime – Switching Analysis”, Applied Economics, 4628: 3408–3420, doi: 10.108/00036846.2014.929626.
Google Scholar -
Ohanian, L. E. (1997): “The Macroeconomic Effects of War Finance in the United States: World War II and the Korean War”, American Economic Review, 871, 23–40.
Google Scholar -
Ouyang, Y, / Li, P. (2018): “On the nexus of financial development, economic growth, and energy consumption in China: New perspective from a GMM panel VAR approach”, Energy Economics, 71, 238–252.
Google Scholar -
Paleologou, S-M. (2013): “A Dynamic Panel Data Model for analyzing the relationship between military expenditure and government debt in the EU”, Defence and Peace Economics, 245, 419–428.
Google Scholar -
Pesaran, M., (2004): “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence. in Panels”, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics no. 435 and CE-. Sifo Working Paper Series no. 1229, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Google Scholar -
Pradhan, R. P. (2010): “Defence spending and economic growth in China, India, Nepal and Pakistan: Evidence from Cointegrated Panel Analysis”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 12, 65–74.
Google Scholar -
Rapacki, R. / Prochniak, M. (2009): “The EU Enlargement and Economic Growth in the CEE New Member Countries”, European Commission Economic Papers, EP 367.
Google Scholar -
Shostya, A. (2014): “The Effect of the Global Financial Crisis on Transition Economies”, Atlantic Economic Journal, 433, 317–332, doi: 10.1007/s11293-014-9418-2.
Google Scholar -
Singh, T. (2009): “Does Domestic Saving Cause Economic Growth? A Time-Series Evidence from India”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 32, 2.
Google Scholar -
SIPRI. (2012): Military Expenditure Database, 2012, http://milexdata.sipri.org“.
Google Scholar -
Smith, R. P. (1977): “Military Expenditures and Capitalism”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1–16.
Google Scholar -
Solow, R. M. (1956): “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70 1, 65–94. doi:10.2307 / 1884513.
Google Scholar -
Themnér, L. / Wallensteen, P. (2013): “Armed Conflict, 1946–2012”, Journal of Peace Research, 504.
Google Scholar -
UCDP/PRIO. (2013): UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset Codebook, Centre for Study of the Civil Wars, International Peace Research Institute, 4–2013.
Google Scholar -
Verner, J. G. (1983): “Budgetary trade-offs between education and defense in Latin America: A research note”, Journal of Developing Areas, 181.
Google Scholar -
Wolfson, M. (1985): “Notes on economic warfare”, Conflict Management and Peace Science, 82, 1–20.
Google Scholar -
Wolfson, M. (1989): “Foundations of a theory of economic warfare and arms control”, Conflict Management and Peace Science, 102, 47–75.
Google Scholar -
World Bank. (2013): World Development Indicators Database, World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Google Scholar -
Yang, A. J. F. / Trunbull, W. N. / Yang, C. W. / Huang, B-H. (2011): “On the relationship between Military Expenditure, Threat and Economic Growth: A nonlinear Approach”, Defense and Peace Economics, 224: 449–457.
Google Scholar -
Zatsepin, V. (2007): “Russian Military Expenditures: What’s Behind the Curtain?”, The Economics of Peace and Security, 21, 51–61, doi: 10.15355.2.1.51.
Google Scholar
Abstract
Abstract
The paper examines the relation between military expenditure and three growth and development related variables (GDP growth, GDP per capita growth and Industry Value Added growth) in 31 transition economies during the 1985–2018 period and in a series of different samples by applying the Panel VAR GMM methodology. The empirical results reveal different patterns of the significant association between military expenditure and the examined growth and development variables, which is positive for certain samples and negative for others. The causality analysis shows that in the vast majority of the cases, the causality direction runs from military expenditure towards the examined growth and development related variables. In addition, the analysis provides uniform evidence on certain positive impacts of defense expenditure on population growth and schooling and negative impacts on savings. The results from the Ex-Soviet Economies are of particular interest as the association between military expenditure and the examined growth-related variables, becomes positive. We interpret the results in the context of the wider characteristics of the particular geographical area.
JEL Classifications: H50, H56
Transition Economies, Transition, Military Expenditure, Economic growth, GDP per capita, Industry Value Added
Table of Contents
Section Title | Page | Action | Price |
---|---|---|---|
Sotirios K. Bellos: Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Development in Transition Economies: A Panel VAR GMM Approach | 1 | ||
Abstract | 1 | ||
1. Introduction | 1 | ||
2. Literature Review | 2 | ||
3. Empirical Model and Analysis | 6 | ||
4. Data and Econometric Methodology | 8 | ||
4.1 Data | 8 | ||
4.2 Panel VAR GMM Method | 8 | ||
4.3 Causality Analysis | 9 | ||
4.4 Missing Observations | 9 | ||
4.5 Cross Sectional Dependence – Stationarity Tests | 9 | ||
5. Empirical Results | 1 | ||
6. Discussion | 1 | ||
7. Conclusions | 1 | ||
Appendix A | 1 | ||
Appendix B | 2 | ||
References | 4 |