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The Role of Independent Fiscal Institutions in Assessing the Sustainability of High Public Debt

  1. Journals
  2. Economics, Finance, Business & Management
  3. Applied Economics Quarterly
  4. Vol. 67, Issue 3
  5. pp. 199–223

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Gordo, E., Casey, E., Oliinyk, I., de Groen, W., Ramos Carrasco, J., Jolovski, J. The Role of Independent Fiscal Institutions in Assessing the Sustainability of High Public Debt. Applied Economics Quarterly, 67(3), 199-223. https://doi.org/10.3790/aeq.67.3.199
Gordo, Esther; Casey, Eddie; Oliinyk, Inna; de Groen, Willem-Pieter; Ramos Carrasco, José Miguel and Jolovski, James "The Role of Independent Fiscal Institutions in Assessing the Sustainability of High Public Debt" Applied Economics Quarterly 67.3, 2021, 199-223. https://doi.org/10.3790/aeq.67.3.199
Gordo, Esther/Casey, Eddie/Oliinyk, Inna/de Groen, Willem-Pieter/Ramos Carrasco, José Miguel/Jolovski, James (2021): The Role of Independent Fiscal Institutions in Assessing the Sustainability of High Public Debt, in: Applied Economics Quarterly, vol. 67, iss. 3, 199-223, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/aeq.67.3.199
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The Role of Independent Fiscal Institutions in Assessing the Sustainability of High Public Debt

Gordo, Esther | Casey, Eddie | Oliinyk, Inna | de Groen, Willem-Pieter | Ramos Carrasco, José Miguel | Jolovski, James

Applied Economics Quarterly, Vol. 67 (2021), Iss. 3 : pp. 199–223

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Article Details

Publisher Name
Duncker & Humblot
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3790/aeq.67.3.199
Language
German
Pages
25
Keywords

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Author Details

Esther Gordo, Spanish Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), José Abascal nº 2, ­Madrid, Spain.

Eddie Casey, Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, Whitaker Square, Dublin, Ireland.

Inna Oliinyk, CEPS/Network of EU IFIs, Place du Congres 1, Brussels, Belgium.

Willem-Pieter de Groen, CEPS/Network of EU IFIs, Place du Congres 1, Brussels, Belgium.

José Miguel Ramos Carrasco, Spanish Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), José Abascal nº 2, Madrid, Spain.

James Jolovski, Bulgarian Fiscal Council, 1169 Sofia Center, Sofia, Bulgaria.

References

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  5. Brock, W. A./Taylor, M. S. (2004): “Economic Growth and the Environment: A Review of Theory and Empirics”, NBER Working Paper 10854.  Google Scholar
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  8. Di, Q./Wang, Y./Zanobetti, A./Wang, Y./Koutrakis, P./Choirat, C./Dominici, F./Schwartz, D. (2017): “Air Pollution and Mortality in the Medicare Population”, New England Journal of Medicine 376, 2513–2522.  Google Scholar
  9. Dockery, D. W./Pope, C. A./Xu, X./Spengler, J. D./Ware, J. H./Fay, M. E./Speizer, F. E. (1993): “An association between air pollution and mortality in six US cities”, New England Journal of Medicine 329, 1753–1759.  Google Scholar
  10. Fogel, R. W. (1997): “Economic and social structure for an ageing population”, Philosophical Transaction of the Royal Society London B. 352, 1905–1917.  Google Scholar
  11. Gerdtham, U. G./Jonsson, B. (1991): ‘Conversion factor instability in international comparisons of health care expenditure”, Journal of Health Economics 10, 227–234.  Google Scholar
  12. Gerking, S./Stanley, L. R. (1986): “An economic analysis of air pollution and health: the case of St. Louis”, Review of Economics and Statistics 68, 115–121.  Google Scholar
  13. Grossman, M. (1972): “On the concept of health capital and the demand for health”, Journal of Political Economy 80, 223–255.  Google Scholar
  14. Grossman, G. M./Krueger, A. B. (1995): “Economic growth and the environment. Economic growth and the environment”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, 353–377.  Google Scholar
  15. Jerrett, M./Eyles, J./Dufournaud, C./Birch, S. (2003): “Environmental influences on health care expenditures: An exploratory analysis from Ontario Canada”, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 57, 334–338.  Google Scholar
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  25. Pautrel, X. (2009): “Pollution and life expectancy: how environmental policy can promote growth”, Ecological Economics 68, 1040–1051.  Google Scholar
  26. Pope, C. A./Burnett, R. T./Thun, M. J./Calle, E. E./Krewski, D./Ito, K./Thurston, G. D. (2002): “Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmonary Mortality and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution”, Journal of the American Medical Association 287, 1132–1141.  Google Scholar
  27. Raaschou-Nielsen, O. and others (2013): “Air pollution and lung cancer incidence in 17 European cohorts: prospective analyses from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE)”, Lancet Oncology 14, 813–22.  Google Scholar
  28. Ritchie, H./Rose, M. (2018): “Causes of Death”, online publication available from the website Our World in Data, https://www.ourworldindata.org/causes of death.  Google Scholar
  29. Samet, J. M./Dominici, M. D./Curriero, F. C./Coursac, I./Zeger, S. L. (2000): “Fine particulate air pollution and mortality in 20 U.S cities, 1987–1994”, New England Journal of Medicine 343, 1742–1749.  Google Scholar
  30. Shahiduzzaman, Md./Khorshed, A. (2017): “Trade-Off Between CO2 Emissions and Income: Is There any Evidence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve in Australia?” Applied Economics Quarterly 63, 211–231.  Google Scholar
  31. Stenberg, K./Axelson, H./Sheehan, P./Anderson, I./Gülmezoglu, A. M./Temmerman, M./Mason, E./Friedman, H. (2014): “Advancing social and economic development by investing in womenʼs and children’s health: a new global investment framework”, Lancet 383, 1333–1354.  Google Scholar
  32. Stern, D. J. (2017): “The environmental Kuznets curve after 25 years”, Journal of Bioeconomics 19, 7–28.  Google Scholar
  33. Stieb, D. M./Judek, S./Burnett, R. T. (2002): “Meta-Analysis of Time-Series Studies of Air Pollution and Mortality: Effects of Gases and Particles and the Influence of Cause of Death, Age, and Season”, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 52, 470–484.  Google Scholar
  34. Xie, Y./Dai, H./Dong, H./Hanaoka, T./Masui, T. (2016): “Economic impacts from PM2.5 pollution-related health effects in China: a provincial-level analysis”, Environmental Science and Technoloy 50, 4836–4843.  Google Scholar
  35. Yazdi, S. K./Khanalizadeh, B. (2017): “Air pollution, economic growth and health care expenditure”, Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja 30, 1181–1190.  Google Scholar
  36. Abowd, J. M./Kramarz, F./Woodcock, S. (2008): “Econometric Analyses of Linked Employer – Employee Data”. In Mátyás, L./Sevestre, P. (Eds.). The Econometrics of Panel Data 46, 727–760, Springer Berlin Heidelberg.  Google Scholar
  37. Arceo, E./Hanna, R./Oliva, P. (2016): “Does the effect of pollution on infant mortality differ between developing and developed countries? Evidence from Mexico City”, Economic Journal 126, 257–280.  Google Scholar
  38. Babatola, S. S. (2018): “Global Burden of Diseases Attributable to Air Pollution”, Journal of Public Health in Africa 9, 162–166.  Google Scholar
  39. Bella, G./Massidda, C./Etzo, I. (2013): “A Panel Estimation of the Relationship between Income, Electric Power Consumption and CO2 Emissions”, Applied Economics Quarterly 59, 149–166.  Google Scholar
  40. Brock, W. A./Taylor, M. S. (2004): “Economic Growth and the Environment: A Review of Theory and Empirics”, NBER Working Paper 10854.  Google Scholar
  41. Coker, E./Cavalli, L./Fabrizi, E./Guastella, G./Lippo, E./Parisi, M. L./Pontarollo, N./Rizzati, M./Varacca, A./Vergalli, S. (2020): “The Effects of Air Pollution on COVID-19 Related Mortality in Northern Italy”, Nota di Lavoro 6.2020, Milano, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.  Google Scholar
  42. Cropper, M. L. (1981): “Measuring the benefits from reduced morbidity”, American Economic Review 71, 235–240.  Google Scholar
  43. Di, Q./Wang, Y./Zanobetti, A./Wang, Y./Koutrakis, P./Choirat, C./Dominici, F./Schwartz, D. (2017): “Air Pollution and Mortality in the Medicare Population”, New England Journal of Medicine 376, 2513–2522.  Google Scholar
  44. Dockery, D. W./Pope, C. A./Xu, X./Spengler, J. D./Ware, J. H./Fay, M. E./Speizer, F. E. (1993): “An association between air pollution and mortality in six US cities”, New England Journal of Medicine 329, 1753–1759.  Google Scholar
  45. Fogel, R. W. (1997): “Economic and social structure for an ageing population”, Philosophical Transaction of the Royal Society London B. 352, 1905–1917.  Google Scholar
  46. Gerdtham, U. G./Jonsson, B. (1991): ‘Conversion factor instability in international comparisons of health care expenditure”, Journal of Health Economics 10, 227–234.  Google Scholar
  47. Gerking, S./Stanley, L. R. (1986): “An economic analysis of air pollution and health: the case of St. Louis”, Review of Economics and Statistics 68, 115–121.  Google Scholar
  48. Grossman, M. (1972): “On the concept of health capital and the demand for health”, Journal of Political Economy 80, 223–255.  Google Scholar
  49. Grossman, G. M./Krueger, A. B. (1995): “Economic growth and the environment. Economic growth and the environment”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, 353–377.  Google Scholar
  50. Jerrett, M./Eyles, J./Dufournaud, C./Birch, S. (2003): “Environmental influences on health care expenditures: An exploratory analysis from Ontario Canada”, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 57, 334–338.  Google Scholar
  51. Katrakilidis, C./Kyritsis, I./Patsika, V. (2016): “The dynamic linkages between economic growth, environmental quality and health in Greece”, Applied Economic Letters 23, 217–221.  Google Scholar
  52. Lu, Z. N./Chen, H./Hao, Y./Wang, J./Song, X./Mok, T. M. (2017): “The dynamic relationship between environmental pollution, economic development and public health: Evidence from China”, Journal of Cleaner Production 166, 134–147.  Google Scholar
  53. Matus, K./Nam, K. M./Selin, N. E./Lamsal, L. N./Reilly, J. M./Paltsev, S. (2012): “Health damages from air pollution in China”, Global Environmental Change 22, 55–66.  Google Scholar
  54. Mayer, D. (2001): “The long-term impact of health on economic growth in Latin America”, World Development 29, 1025–1033.  Google Scholar
  55. Miao, W./Huang, X./Song, Y. (2017): “An economic assessment of the health effects and crop yield losses caused by air pollution in mainland China”, Journal of Environmental Science 56, 102–113.  Google Scholar
  56. Morand, O. F. (2005): “Economic growth, health, and longevity in the very long term: facts and mechanisms”, in: Lopez-Casasnovas, G./Rivera, B./Currais, L. (Eds.). Health and Economic Growth: Findings and Policy Implications, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, 239–254.  Google Scholar
  57. OʼNeill, M. S./McMichael, A. J./Schwartz, J./Wartenberg, D. (2007): “Poverty, environment, and health: the role of environmental epidemiology and environmental epidemiologists”, Epidemiology 18, 664–668.  Google Scholar
  58. Our World in Data (2022): website: https://ourworldindata.org/outdoor-air-pollution.  Google Scholar
  59. Pautrel, X. (2008): “Reconsidering the impact of the environment on long-run growth when pollution influences health and agents have a finite lifetime”, Environmental and Resource Economics 40, 37–52.  Google Scholar
  60. Pautrel, X. (2009): “Pollution and life expectancy: how environmental policy can promote growth”, Ecological Economics 68, 1040–1051.  Google Scholar
  61. Pope, C. A./Burnett, R. T./Thun, M. J./Calle, E. E./Krewski, D./Ito, K./Thurston, G. D. (2002): “Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmonary Mortality and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution”, Journal of the American Medical Association 287, 1132–1141.  Google Scholar
  62. Raaschou-Nielsen, O. and others (2013): “Air pollution and lung cancer incidence in 17 European cohorts: prospective analyses from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE)”, Lancet Oncology 14, 813–22.  Google Scholar
  63. Ritchie, H./Rose, M. (2018): “Causes of Death”, online publication available from the website Our World in Data, https://www.ourworldindata.org/causes of death.  Google Scholar
  64. Samet, J. M./Dominici, M. D./Curriero, F. C./Coursac, I./Zeger, S. L. (2000): “Fine particulate air pollution and mortality in 20 U.S cities, 1987–1994”, New England Journal of Medicine 343, 1742–1749.  Google Scholar
  65. Shahiduzzaman, Md./Khorshed, A. (2017): “Trade-Off Between CO2 Emissions and Income: Is There any Evidence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve in Australia?” Applied Economics Quarterly 63, 211–231.  Google Scholar
  66. Stenberg, K./Axelson, H./Sheehan, P./Anderson, I./Gülmezoglu, A. M./Temmerman, M./Mason, E./Friedman, H. (2014): “Advancing social and economic development by investing in womenʼs and children’s health: a new global investment framework”, Lancet 383, 1333–1354.  Google Scholar
  67. Stern, D. J. (2017): “The environmental Kuznets curve after 25 years”, Journal of Bioeconomics 19, 7–28.  Google Scholar
  68. Stieb, D. M./Judek, S./Burnett, R. T. (2002): “Meta-Analysis of Time-Series Studies of Air Pollution and Mortality: Effects of Gases and Particles and the Influence of Cause of Death, Age, and Season”, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 52, 470–484.  Google Scholar
  69. Xie, Y./Dai, H./Dong, H./Hanaoka, T./Masui, T. (2016): “Economic impacts from PM2.5 pollution-related health effects in China: a provincial-level analysis”, Environmental Science and Technoloy 50, 4836–4843.  Google Scholar
  70. Yazdi, S. K./Khanalizadeh, B. (2017): “Air pollution, economic growth and health care expenditure”, Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja 30, 1181–1190.  Google Scholar
  71. Abowd, J. M./Kramarz, F./Woodcock, S. (2008): “Econometric Analyses of Linked Employer – Employee Data”. In Mátyás, L./Sevestre, P. (Eds.). The Econometrics of Panel Data 46, 727–760, Springer Berlin Heidelberg.  Google Scholar
  72. Arceo, E./Hanna, R./Oliva, P. (2016): “Does the effect of pollution on infant mortality differ between developing and developed countries? Evidence from Mexico City”, Economic Journal 126, 257–280.  Google Scholar
  73. Babatola, S. S. (2018): “Global Burden of Diseases Attributable to Air Pollution”, Journal of Public Health in Africa 9, 162–166.  Google Scholar
  74. Bella, G./Massidda, C./Etzo, I. (2013): “A Panel Estimation of the Relationship between Income, Electric Power Consumption and CO2 Emissions”, Applied Economics Quarterly 59, 149–166.  Google Scholar
  75. Brock, W. A./Taylor, M. S. (2004): “Economic Growth and the Environment: A Review of Theory and Empirics”, NBER Working Paper 10854.  Google Scholar
  76. Coker, E./Cavalli, L./Fabrizi, E./Guastella, G./Lippo, E./Parisi, M. L./Pontarollo, N./Rizzati, M./Varacca, A./Vergalli, S. (2020): “The Effects of Air Pollution on COVID-19 Related Mortality in Northern Italy”, Nota di Lavoro 6.2020, Milano, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.  Google Scholar
  77. Cropper, M. L. (1981): “Measuring the benefits from reduced morbidity”, American Economic Review 71, 235–240.  Google Scholar
  78. Di, Q./Wang, Y./Zanobetti, A./Wang, Y./Koutrakis, P./Choirat, C./Dominici, F./Schwartz, D. (2017): “Air Pollution and Mortality in the Medicare Population”, New England Journal of Medicine 376, 2513–2522.  Google Scholar
  79. Dockery, D. W./Pope, C. A./Xu, X./Spengler, J. D./Ware, J. H./Fay, M. E./Speizer, F. E. (1993): “An association between air pollution and mortality in six US cities”, New England Journal of Medicine 329, 1753–1759.  Google Scholar
  80. Fogel, R. W. (1997): “Economic and social structure for an ageing population”, Philosophical Transaction of the Royal Society London B. 352, 1905–1917.  Google Scholar
  81. Gerdtham, U. G./Jonsson, B. (1991): ‘Conversion factor instability in international comparisons of health care expenditure”, Journal of Health Economics 10, 227–234.  Google Scholar
  82. Gerking, S./Stanley, L. R. (1986): “An economic analysis of air pollution and health: the case of St. Louis”, Review of Economics and Statistics 68, 115–121.  Google Scholar
  83. Grossman, M. (1972): “On the concept of health capital and the demand for health”, Journal of Political Economy 80, 223–255.  Google Scholar
  84. Grossman, G. M./Krueger, A. B. (1995): “Economic growth and the environment. Economic growth and the environment”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, 353–377.  Google Scholar
  85. Jerrett, M./Eyles, J./Dufournaud, C./Birch, S. (2003): “Environmental influences on health care expenditures: An exploratory analysis from Ontario Canada”, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 57, 334–338.  Google Scholar
  86. Katrakilidis, C./Kyritsis, I./Patsika, V. (2016): “The dynamic linkages between economic growth, environmental quality and health in Greece”, Applied Economic Letters 23, 217–221.  Google Scholar
  87. Lu, Z. N./Chen, H./Hao, Y./Wang, J./Song, X./Mok, T. M. (2017): “The dynamic relationship between environmental pollution, economic development and public health: Evidence from China”, Journal of Cleaner Production 166, 134–147.  Google Scholar
  88. Matus, K./Nam, K. M./Selin, N. E./Lamsal, L. N./Reilly, J. M./Paltsev, S. (2012): “Health damages from air pollution in China”, Global Environmental Change 22, 55–66.  Google Scholar
  89. Mayer, D. (2001): “The long-term impact of health on economic growth in Latin America”, World Development 29, 1025–1033.  Google Scholar
  90. Miao, W./Huang, X./Song, Y. (2017): “An economic assessment of the health effects and crop yield losses caused by air pollution in mainland China”, Journal of Environmental Science 56, 102–113.  Google Scholar
  91. Morand, O. F. (2005): “Economic growth, health, and longevity in the very long term: facts and mechanisms”, in: Lopez-Casasnovas, G./Rivera, B./Currais, L. (Eds.). Health and Economic Growth: Findings and Policy Implications, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, 239–254.  Google Scholar
  92. OʼNeill, M. S./McMichael, A. J./Schwartz, J./Wartenberg, D. (2007): “Poverty, environment, and health: the role of environmental epidemiology and environmental epidemiologists”, Epidemiology 18, 664–668.  Google Scholar
  93. Our World in Data (2022): website: https://ourworldindata.org/outdoor-air-pollution.  Google Scholar
  94. Pautrel, X. (2008): “Reconsidering the impact of the environment on long-run growth when pollution influences health and agents have a finite lifetime”, Environmental and Resource Economics 40, 37–52.  Google Scholar
  95. Pautrel, X. (2009): “Pollution and life expectancy: how environmental policy can promote growth”, Ecological Economics 68, 1040–1051.  Google Scholar
  96. Pope, C. A./Burnett, R. T./Thun, M. J./Calle, E. E./Krewski, D./Ito, K./Thurston, G. D. (2002): “Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmonary Mortality and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution”, Journal of the American Medical Association 287, 1132–1141.  Google Scholar
  97. Raaschou-Nielsen, O. and others (2013): “Air pollution and lung cancer incidence in 17 European cohorts: prospective analyses from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE)”, Lancet Oncology 14, 813–22.  Google Scholar
  98. Ritchie, H./Rose, M. (2018): “Causes of Death”, online publication available from the website Our World in Data, https://www.ourworldindata.org/causes of death.  Google Scholar
  99. Samet, J. M./Dominici, M. D./Curriero, F. C./Coursac, I./Zeger, S. L. (2000): “Fine particulate air pollution and mortality in 20 U.S cities, 1987–1994”, New England Journal of Medicine 343, 1742–1749.  Google Scholar
  100. Shahiduzzaman, Md./Khorshed, A. (2017): “Trade-Off Between CO2 Emissions and Income: Is There any Evidence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve in Australia?” Applied Economics Quarterly 63, 211–231.  Google Scholar
  101. Stenberg, K./Axelson, H./Sheehan, P./Anderson, I./Gülmezoglu, A. M./Temmerman, M./Mason, E./Friedman, H. (2014): “Advancing social and economic development by investing in womenʼs and children’s health: a new global investment framework”, Lancet 383, 1333–1354.  Google Scholar
  102. Stern, D. J. (2017): “The environmental Kuznets curve after 25 years”, Journal of Bioeconomics 19, 7–28.  Google Scholar
  103. Stieb, D. M./Judek, S./Burnett, R. T. (2002): “Meta-Analysis of Time-Series Studies of Air Pollution and Mortality: Effects of Gases and Particles and the Influence of Cause of Death, Age, and Season”, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 52, 470–484.  Google Scholar
  104. Xie, Y./Dai, H./Dong, H./Hanaoka, T./Masui, T. (2016): “Economic impacts from PM2.5 pollution-related health effects in China: a provincial-level analysis”, Environmental Science and Technoloy 50, 4836–4843.  Google Scholar
  105. Yazdi, S. K./Khanalizadeh, B. (2017): “Air pollution, economic growth and health care expenditure”, Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja 30, 1181–1190.  Google Scholar

Abstract

Weakened growth, along with the use of automatic stabilisers and additional fiscal stimulus measures, has led to higher public debt levels. Against this backdrop, the present paper aims to assess the role of Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs), focusing on their public debt modelling. The paper draws on new data from a review of debt sustainability analysis (DSA) practices in the EU and a survey of members of the Network of EU IFIs. More specifically, it explores the main challenges for IFIs in modelling public debt in times of greater unpredictability, higher public debt, and low interest rates. Drawing on the experiences of various IFIs, the paper offers preliminary insights into how to address these challenges.

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