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Loef, H. Reale Wechselkurse und realer zyklischer Output. . Theoretisches Modell und empirische Analyse für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, 20(1), 22-47. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.20.1.22
Loef, Hans-Edi "Reale Wechselkurse und realer zyklischer Output. Theoretisches Modell und empirische Analyse für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland. " Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital 20.1, 1987, 22-47. https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.20.1.22
Loef, Hans-Edi (1987): Reale Wechselkurse und realer zyklischer Output, in: Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, vol. 20, iss. 1, 22-47, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.20.1.22
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Reale Wechselkurse und realer zyklischer Output

Theoretisches Modell und empirische Analyse für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Loef, Hans-Edi

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 20 (1987), Iss. 1 : pp. 22–47

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Article Details

Publisher Name
Duncker & Humblot
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.20.1.22
Language
Multiple languages
Pages
26

Author Details

Hans-Edi Loef, Siegen

References

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Abstract

Real Exchange Rates and Real Cyclical Output

The subject of the analysis is a review of the Lucas hypothesis regarding a trade-off between inflation and real output in the form of unexpected nominal changes in an open economy. The modified Lucas-type goods supply function includes, in addition to unexpected nominal influences, the expected real exchange rate as an important determinant. The goods market model is completed by a simple goods demand structure, which distinguishes between fixed and flexible exchange rate systems as extremecases, and intervention policy as the most extensive normal case. The empirical investigation of the postulated hypotheses shows for the Federal Republic of Germany from 1961 to 1981, that in particular the expected deviation from purchasing power parity contributes significantly towards an explanation of business cycle movements. An expected real appreciation of the German currency results in a positve output effect and does not imply, asin Keynesian-orientated demand models via sinking exports a reduction in real Gross Domestic Product.

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Hans-Edi Loef: Reale Wechselkurse\rund realer zyklischer Output. Theoretisches Modell und empirische Analyse\rfür die Bundesrepublik Deutschland 22
I. Einleitung: Problemstellung und Untersuchungsablauf 22
II. Theoretische Fundierung einer empirischen Teststruktur 24
III. Erwartungsbildungsprozesse und empirischer Untersuchungsrahmen 29
1. Zur Bildung von permanenten und erwarteten Größen 29
2. Empirische Implementation 33
IV. Empirische Ergebnisse 34
V. Zusammenfassung und Schlußbemerkungen 43
Literatur 45
Zusammenfassung: Reale Wechselkurse und realer zyklischer Output 46
Summary: Real Exchange Rates and Real Cyclical Output 47
Résumé: Taux de change réels et output cyclique réel 47

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