Konflikte der monetären Steuerung bei flexiblen Wechselkursen
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Konflikte der monetären Steuerung bei flexiblen Wechselkursen
Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 19 (1986), Iss. 2 : pp. 213–232
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Brigitte Wesierski, Berlin
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Abstract
Conflicts of Monetary Control under Flexible Exchange Rates
Since the German Bundesbank manifestly oriented its monetary policy in 1980 for the first time since the introduction of flexible exchange rates to foreign trade conditions, the debate on the dependence of the money supply on foreign trade has been revived. The central issue is intervention policy, which can be significant on the one hand for the domestic money supply and on the other for the trend of exchange rates. In this study it becomes evident that the intervention activities in the Federal Republic of Germany are quite lively even under flexible exchange rates and have taken on an ever greater magnitude especially since 1977/78. As, since that time, a considerable change in the (dollar) exchange rate was recorded, it suggested itself that the monetary policy of the German Bundesbank was again more closely oriented to foreign trade conditions. the ensuing consequences are depicted by the following deliberations: Proceeding from the theoretical finding that foreign exchange market intervention without a money supply effect has no lasting effect on the exchange rate, but that monetary policy by way of domestic instruments may also be pursued to attain a specific exchange rate change, situations can be described, which, in view of the constellation of cyclical phase and exchange rate movements, may prove rich in conflicts. An anticyclical monetary policy, which can still be observed currently at least in rudimentary form, can not only counter such conflicts, but due to its simultaneous impact on the exchange rate even aggravates under certain circumstances the cyclical fluctuations. Against this background, a more steadying monetary policy must be called for, which can contribute to reducing potentials for cyclical and exchange rate fluctuations.