Chaos und Stabilität in einem Beschäftigungsmodell mit rationalen Erwartungen
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Chaos und Stabilität in einem Beschäftigungsmodell mit rationalen Erwartungen
Lange, Carsten | Pasche, Markus
Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, Vol. 112 (1992), Iss. 1 : pp. 25–46
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Lange, Carsten
Pasche, Markus
Abstract
Using a nonlinear macroeconomic employment model with rational expectations, the impact of an expansive monetary impulse on the timepath of inflation and unemployment rates is analyzed. Simulations with different parametrizations generate cyclical or irregular motions (chaos) of the inflation and unemployment rates. The results are confirmed by using Ljapunov exponents. Although the model is not unstable in these cases, it doesn't come up to a steady-state-equilibrium, so that a comparative-static approach might not be very helpful. In addition it is shown, that in the irregular case minimal deviations in the initial conditions lead to a totally different timepath, thus making forecasting questionable.