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Bastian, P. Datenauswertungen zur Vorhersage von Entwicklungen – Predictive Risk Modelling. Sozialer Fortschritt, 72(11), 849-868. https://doi.org/10.3790/sfo.72.11.849
Bastian, Pascal "Datenauswertungen zur Vorhersage von Entwicklungen – Predictive Risk Modelling" Sozialer Fortschritt 72.11, 2023, 849-868. https://doi.org/10.3790/sfo.72.11.849
Bastian, Pascal (2023): Datenauswertungen zur Vorhersage von Entwicklungen – Predictive Risk Modelling, in: Sozialer Fortschritt, vol. 72, iss. 11, 849-868, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/sfo.72.11.849
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Datenauswertungen zur Vorhersage von Entwicklungen – Predictive Risk Modelling

Bastian, Pascal

Sozialer Fortschritt, Vol. 72 (2023), Iss. 11 : pp. 849–868

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Duncker & Humblot
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3790/sfo.72.11.849
Language
German
Pages
20
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Author Details

Bastian, Prof. Dr. Pascal, Rheinland-Pfälzische Technische Universität (RPTU) Kaiserslautern Landau, Fachbereich Erziehungswissenschaften, Arbeitsbereich Sozialpädagogik, Bürgerstraße 23, 76829 Landau.

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Abstract

Data Evaluation to Predict Developments – Predictive Risk Modelling

In some fields of social work, risk prediction is part of the diagnostic process. Using the example of child protection, in which risk assessment is prescribed by law, the article systematises different procedures based on the collection, weighting and evaluation of data and discusses the effects of different risk prediction tools on professional judgement as well as on the professionals’ scope for discretion. A special focus is placed on recent developments of algorithm-based methods. After an overview of current research and the debate on standardised and algorithm-based procedures, the article discusses the possibilities of integrating such tools into the complex professional judgement and action system.

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Pascal Bastian: Datenauswertungen zur Vorhersage von Entwicklungen – Predictive Risk Modelling 849
Zusammenfassung 849
Abstract: Data Evaluation to Predict Developments – Predictive Risk Modelling 849
1. Einführung 850
2. Eine kurze Sortierung einzelner Modelle der Risikoprognoseverfahren 853
2.1 Die Klassiker: Konsensuale und aktuarialistische Risikoprognose 854
2.2 Zukünftige Entwicklungen: algorithmusbasierte Risikoprognose (Big Data Analytics) 855
3. Einblicke in die empirische Forschung und kritische Debatten 856
4. Ausblick: Die Einbindung standardisierter Risikoprognoseverfahren in die professionelle Praxis 860
Literatur 862

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