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Fly with the Eagles or Scratch with the Chickens? – Zum Herdenverhalten von Wechselkursprognostikern

Pierdzioch, Christian | Stadtmann, Georg | Schäfer, Dirk

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 44 (2011), Iss. 4: pp. 465–490

3 Citations (CrossRef)

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Article Details

Author Details

Prof. Dr. Christian Pierdzioch, Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Department of Economics, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O. B. 700822, D-22008 Hamburg

Prof. Dr. Georg Stadtmann, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Business and Economics, Campusvej 55, DK-5230 Odense M, und Europa-Universität Viadrina, Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insb. Makroökonomik, Postfach 1786, D-15207 Frankfurt (Oder)

Dirk Schäfer, Europa-Universität Viadrina, Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insb. Makroökonomie

Cited By

  1. A Note on Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates: Evidence of Anti-herding

    Pierdzioch, Christian | Rülke, Jan-Christoph | Stadtmann, Georg

    Review of International Economics, Vol. 20 (2012), Iss. 5 P.974

    https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12007 [Citations: 15]
  2. Portfolio Complexity and Herd Behavior: Evidence from the German Mutual Fund Market

    Franck, Alexander | Walter, Andreas

    Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 45 (2012), Iss. 3 P.343

    https://doi.org/10.3790/kuk.45.3.343 [Citations: 6]
  3. Added Value von Behavioral-Finance-Fonds

    Stand der wissenschaftlichen Forschung über Märkte und ihre Teilnehmer

    Averbeck, Daniel

    2018

    https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-55924-6_3 [Citations: 0]

Abstract

Fly with the Eagles or Scratch with the Chickens? – Herd Behavior of Exchange Rate Forecasters

We analyze whether exchange-rate forecasters herd. To this end, we lay out two widely studied theoretical models of forecaster herding. The models illustrate why forecasters may herd. We then empirically analyze whether forecasts of the Yen/ Dollar, Swiss franc/Dollar, German mark/Dollar, and Euro/Dollar exchange rates provide evidence of herding. Our results do not yield evidence of herding. On the contrary, we find strong evidence of anti-herding. Anti-herding could indicate that forecasters adhere to a strategy of "forecast differentation„.