Menu Expand

Industrial Policy: Always Dismissed, Always Deployed

Cite JOURNAL ARTICLE

Style

Kotz, H., Landmann, O. Industrial Policy: Always Dismissed, Always Deployed. Vierteljahreshefte zur Arbeits- und Wirtschaftsforschung, 99999(), 1-30. https://doi.org/10.3790/vaw.2025.1457606
Kotz, Hans-Helmut and Landmann, Oliver "Industrial Policy: Always Dismissed, Always Deployed" Vierteljahreshefte zur Arbeits- und Wirtschaftsforschung 99999., 2025, 1-30. https://doi.org/10.3790/vaw.2025.1457606
Kotz, Hans-Helmut/Landmann, Oliver (2025): Industrial Policy: Always Dismissed, Always Deployed, in: Vierteljahreshefte zur Arbeits- und Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 99999, iss. , 1-30, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/vaw.2025.1457606

Format

Industrial Policy: Always Dismissed, Always Deployed

Kotz, Hans-Helmut | Landmann, Oliver

Vierteljahreshefte zur Arbeits- und Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. (2025), Online First : pp. 1–30

Additional Information

Article Details

Author Details

Hans-Helmut Kotz, Center for European Studies, Harvard University, SAFE – Leib­niz Institute for Financial Research, Frankfurt, Germany and University of Freiburg

Oliver Landmann, University of Freiburg

References

  1. Aghion, P. et al. (2015): Industrial Policy and Competition, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7, 1–32.  Google Scholar
  2. Aghion, P., Dewatripont, M. and Tirole, J. (2024): Can Europe Create an Innovation Economy?, Project Syndicate, October 7.  Google Scholar
  3. Artus, P. and Virard, M.-P. (2011): La France sans ses usines. Paris: Fayard.  Google Scholar
  4. Aussilloux, V., Frocrain, P., Lallement, R. and Tabarly, G. (2020): Industrial policies in France. Developments and international comparisons. France Stratégie: Note de synthèse.  Google Scholar
  5. Autor, D., Dorn, D. and Hanson, G. H. (2021): On the Persistence of the China Shock. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research.  Google Scholar
  6. Autor, D. et al. (2024): Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States, NBER Working Paper 32082, January.  Google Scholar
  7. Azoulay, P., Fuchs, E., Goldstein, A. P. and Kearney, M. (2019): Funding Breakthrough Research: Promises and Challenges of the “ARPA Model”. Innovation Policy and the Economy, 19, 69–96. doi:10.1086/699933.  Google Scholar
  8. Azoulay, P. and Greenblatt, W. (2025): Does peer review penalize scientific risk taking? Evidence from NIH grant renewals, NBER WP 33495.  Google Scholar
  9. Baldwin, R. and Wyplosz, C. (2022): The economics of European Integration, 7e, Maidenhead.  Google Scholar
  10. BDI (2019): Partner and systemic competitor – How do we deal with China’s state-controlled economy. BDI Policy Paper (January).  Google Scholar
  11. Beffa, J.-L. (2005): Pour une nouvelle politique industrielle. Paris.  Google Scholar
  12. Bluestone, B. and Harrison, B. (1982): The De-Industrialization of America. New York: Basic Books.  Google Scholar
  13. Carleton, T. and Cockayne, W. R. (2023): Inspired by DARPA: A Global Comparison of Radical Innovation Government Agencies. In: Cockayne, W. R., West, S. and Carleton, T. (eds.), Inventing the Almost Impossible (pp. 23–37). Switzerland: Springer.  Google Scholar
  14. Cesluk-Grajewski, M. (2023): State aid in the wake of the pandemic, war and foreign subsidies. European Parliament Research Service (April).  Google Scholar
  15. Clayton, C., Maggiori, M. and Schreger, J. (2025): The Political Economy of Geoeconomic Power, American Economic Review (PaP, pre-print).  Google Scholar
  16. de Soyres, F. and Moore, D. (2024): Assessing China’s Efforts to Increase Self-Reliance. FEDS Notes (February).  Google Scholar
  17. Dertouzos, M. L., Lester, R. K. and Solow, R. M. (1989): Made in America. Regaining the Productive Edge: MIT.  Google Scholar
  18. Draghi, M. (2024a): The Future of European Competitiveness, Report for the European Commission, September. Brussels.  Google Scholar
  19. Draghi, M. (2024b): Europe: Back to Domestic Growth, CEPR Policy Insight No. 136, December.  Google Scholar
  20. Dustmann, C., Fitzenberger, B., Schönberg, U. and Spitz-Oener, A. (2014): From Sick Man of Europe to Economic Superstar: Germany’s Resurgent Economy. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(1), 167–188.  Google Scholar
  21. European Commission (2021): Europe Fit for the Digital Age: Commission Proposes New Rules and Actions for Excellence and Trust in Artificial Intelligence, Press Release, April 21.  Google Scholar
  22. Farrell, H. and Newman, A. L. (2019): Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion. International Security, 44(1), 42–79.  Google Scholar
  23. Felbermayr, G. and Braml, M. (2024): Der Freihandel hat fertig. Wie die neue Welt(un)- ordnung unseren Wohlstand gefährdet. Vienna.  Google Scholar
  24. Fuest, C. and Pisani-Ferry, J. (2019): A Primer on Developing European Public Goods, EconPol Policy Report, 16(3), November.  Google Scholar
  25. Garicano, L. (2024): Why Tariffs Won’t Save Our Car Industry, Silicon Content, October 9 (https://www.siliconcontinent.com/p/these-eu-tariffs-on-chinese-evs-wont).  Google Scholar
  26. Gehrig, T. and Steinbacka, R. (2023): Dual Sourcing and Resilient Supply Chains: The Case of Essential Resources, Atlantic Economic Journal, vol. 51, pp. 223–241.  Google Scholar
  27. Goolsbee, A. and Krueger, A. B. (2015): A Retrospective Look at Rescuing and Restructuring General Motors and Chrysler, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 3–24.  Google Scholar
  28. Greenbaum, S. I., Thakor, A. V., Boot, A. W. A. (2019): Contemporary Financial Intermediation, Academic Press, London.  Google Scholar
  29. Gruber, J. and Johnson, S. (2019): Jumpstarting America. How Breakthrough Science Can Revive Economic Growth and the American Dream. New York: Public Affairs.  Google Scholar
  30. Guillou, S. (2024): La politique industrielle française: Démons, dieux et défis, Science Po-OFCE WP no. 11/2024.  Google Scholar
  31. Harrison, A. (Forthcoming 2025): What Makes Industrial Policy Work? In: Gourinchas, P.-O., Obstfeld, M. and Topalova, P. (eds.): Rethinking Economic Policy: Steering Structural Change. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.  Google Scholar
  32. Hodge, A. et al. (2024): Industrial Policy in Europe, IMF Working Paper 24/249, December.  Google Scholar
  33. Hüther, M. (2023): Deindustrialisierung als Risiko ernst nehmen, Potenziale für die Transformation mobilisieren. ifo-Schnelldienst, 76(3), 36.  Google Scholar
  34. Jäger, S., Noy, S. and Schoefer, B. (2022): The German Model of Industrial Relations: Balancing Flexibility and Collective Action. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 36(4), 53–80.  Google Scholar
  35. Juhász, R. and Lane, N. (2024): The Political Economy of Industrial Policy, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 38, 27–54.  Google Scholar
  36. Juhász, R., Lane, N. and Rodrik, D. (2023): The New Economics of Industrial Policy, Annual Review of Economics, 16, 213–242.  Google Scholar
  37. Ketels, C. and Protsiv, S. (2021): Cluster presence and economic performance: a new look based on European data. Regional Studies, 55(2), 208–220.  Google Scholar
  38. Kotz, H.-H., Mischke, J. and Bughin, J. (2018): Strong aggregate demand: Critical for reaping benefits of digitization (https://voxeu.org/article/strong-aggregate-demand-critical-reaping-benefits-digitisation).  Google Scholar
  39. Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M. and Melitz, M. J. (2022): International Economics. Theory and Policy (12th ed.). Boston: Pearson.  Google Scholar
  40. Krugman, P. (2024): Why Does U.S. Technology Rule?, Substack, December 12 (https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/why-does-us-technology-rule).  Google Scholar
  41. Lawrence, R. Z. (2024): Behind the Curve: Can Manufacturing Still Provide Inclusive Growth?, Peterson Institute for International Economics. Washington, D.C.  Google Scholar
  42. Leonard, M., Pisani-Ferry, J., Ribakova, E., Shapiro, J. and Wolff, G. (2019): Redefining Europe’s economic sovereignty. Bruegel Policy Contribution, 2019(9), 23.  Google Scholar
  43. Maggi, G. and Ossa, R. (2021): The Political Economy of Deep Integration. Annual Review of Economics, 13 (Volume 13, 2021), 19–38.  Google Scholar
  44. Mazzucato, M. (2013): The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths.  Google Scholar
  45. McAfee, A. (2024): European Competitiveness and How Not to Fix It, The Geek Way, September 23 (https://geekway.substack.com/p/european-competitiveness-and-how).  Google Scholar
  46. Meunier, G. and Ponssard, J.-P. (2024): Green industrial policy, information asymmetry, and repayable advance. Journal of Public Economic Theory, 26(1).  Google Scholar
  47. Norton, R. D. (1986): Industrial Policy and American Renewal. Journal of Economic Literature, 24(1), 1–40.  Google Scholar
  48. Porter, M. E. (1990): The Competitive Advantage of Nations. London: MacMillan.  Google Scholar
  49. ProMarket (2021): How to Tame the Tech Giants: Reverse the Burden of Proof in Merger Reviews (https://promarket.org/2021/06/28/tech-block-merger-review-enforcement-regulators/).  Google Scholar
  50. Rodrik, D. (2014): Green industrial policy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 30(3), 469–491.  Google Scholar
  51. Seong, J., White, O., Birshan, M. et al. (2024): Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade, McKinsey Global Institute. Washington, D.C.  Google Scholar
  52. Thierer, A. (2023): GDPR and European Innovation Culture: What the Evidence Shows, Medium, February 5 (https://medium.com/@AdamThierer/gdrp-european-innovation-culture-what-the-economic-evidence-shows-b19d2309de07).  Google Scholar
  53. Tordoir, S. and Setser, B. (2025): How German Industry Can Survive the Second China Shock, Centre for European Reform. Brussels, London and Berlin (https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2025/how-german-industry-can-survive-second-china- shock).  Google Scholar
  54. U.S. Federal Register 2018/Vol. 83, No. 223/Monday, November 19, 2018/Proposed Rules.  Google Scholar
  55. Tyson, L. (1992): Who’s Bashing Whom? Trade Conflict in High-Technology Industries, Institute for International Economics. Washington, D.C.  Google Scholar
  56. White House (2021a): Building Resilient Supply Chains, Revitalizing American Manufacturing, and Fostering Broad-based growth. 100-Day Reviews under Executive Order 14017. Washington, D.C.: White House.  Google Scholar
  57. White House (2021b): 2021 Trade Policy Agenda and 2020 Annual Report of the President of the United States on the Trade Agreements Program. Washington, D.C.  Google Scholar
  58. Woll, C. (2023): Corporate Crime and Punishment: The Politics of Negotiated Justice in Global Markets. Princeton: Princeton UP.  Google Scholar

Abstract

Industriepolitische Maßnahmen sind Eingriffe der öffentlichen Hand mit dem Ziel, die sektorale (oder standortbezogene) Struktur einer Wirtschaft zu beeinflussen. Die Behörden können dabei eine Vielzahl von Zielen verfolgen. Mit den zunehmenden geopolitischen Spannungen zwischen den USA und China erlebte die IP einen Aufschwung. Engpässe in den Lieferketten im Zuge der COVID-19-Pandemie verstärkten diesen Trend ebenso wie der Angriff Russlands auf die Ukraine. Die Abschwächung der Abhängigkeitsrisiken und die Erlangung strategischer Autonomie wurden zu einer politischen Priorität (‚nearshoring‘, ‚friendshoring‘). Auch wenn ihr Einsatz typischerweise abgelehnt wird, wurde immer wieder auf IP zurückgegriffen. Oft in defensiver Weise, um Unternehmen zu schützen, die durch den internationalen Wettbewerb herausgefordert wurden. Aber auch vorausschauend, um Innovationen zu fördern, aufbauend auf Grundlagenforschung und F&E, um den technologischen Wandel zu lenken. Externe Effekte, die einen Keil zwischen private und gesellschaftliche Werte treiben und zu einer Unterversorgung mit Gütern oder einer Überbeanspruchung von Ressourcen führen, waren die Standardbegründung für industriepolitische Eingriffe. Darüber hinaus wurden handels- und wettbewerbsbezogene Argumente verwendet, um politische Interventionen allokativer Art zu verteidigen (junge Industrien und steile Lernkurven, Airbus vs. Boeing). Umverteilungsversionen von IP unterstützen zurückgebliebene Regionen oder Industrien im Niedergang. Die nationale Sicherheit (Geopolitik) wurde in jüngster Zeit erneut zu einer wichtigen Triebkraft für geistiges Eigentum (US CHIPS und Science Act). IP wird in einer Vielzahl von nationalen Formen umgesetzt.