Geopolitische Schocks: Wirkungen auf das Finanzsystem und Gegenmaßnahmen
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Geopolitische Schocks: Wirkungen auf das Finanzsystem und Gegenmaßnahmen
Vierteljahreshefte zur Arbeits- und Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. 2 (2025), Iss. 2 : pp. 159–173
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Joachim Wuermeling, ESMT Berlin
References
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Abstract
Geopolitical crises can have serious and fatal effects on the economy and society beyond the crisis region via the financial system. The extent of the damage can be considerable and far beyond the political cause. The indirect consequences do not have to be intended or foreseen by the actors, but they can be. The consequences are sometimes not triggered by them at all but by third parties who, in turn, react to a political event, e.g., by third parties who in turn react to a political event, e. g., through military action or even just through sanctions. For financial institutions and the financial system, the risks are considerable, idiosyncratic and exogenous. The transmission mechanism’s core is investors’ worsening expectationsregarding economic developments in the real economy. These are translated into banks by realising market, credit or interest rate risks. The financial system cannot be made immune to geopolitical risks. But there are effective measures that reduce vulnerabilities.