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Subjektiv eingeschätzte Lebensdauer im Kontext sozialer Sicherung

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  5. pp. 279–306

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Mergenthaler, A., Reuter, A., Klüsener, S. Subjektiv eingeschätzte Lebensdauer im Kontext sozialer Sicherung. Sozialer Fortschritt, 74(5), 279-306. https://doi.org/10.3790/sfo.2025.1461002
Mergenthaler, Andreas; Reuter, Anna and Klüsener, Sebastian "Subjektiv eingeschätzte Lebensdauer im Kontext sozialer Sicherung" Sozialer Fortschritt 74.5, 2025, 279-306. https://doi.org/10.3790/sfo.2025.1461002
Mergenthaler, Andreas/Reuter, Anna/Klüsener, Sebastian (2025): Subjektiv eingeschätzte Lebensdauer im Kontext sozialer Sicherung, in: Sozialer Fortschritt, vol. 74, iss. 5, 279-306, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/sfo.2025.1461002
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Subjektiv eingeschätzte Lebensdauer im Kontext sozialer Sicherung

Mergenthaler, Andreas | Reuter, Anna | Klüsener, Sebastian

Sozialer Fortschritt, Vol. 74(2025), Iss. 5 : pp. 279–306

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Publisher Name
Duncker & Humblot
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3790/sfo.2025.1461002
Language
German
Pages
28
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closed-access
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Author Details

Mergenthaler, Dr. Andreas, Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung (BiB), Friedrich-Ebert-Allee 4, 65185 Wiesbaden.

Reuter, Dr. Anna, Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung (BiB), Friedrich-Ebert-Allee 4, 65185 Wiesbaden.

Klüsener, Dr. Sebastian, Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung (BiB), Friedrich-Ebert-Allee 4, 65185 Wiesbaden.

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Abstract

Abstract: Subjective Estimated Lifespan in the Context of Social Security

Social systems in Germany are facing major challenges due to population ageing. This article discusses which role systematic subjective under- or overestimation of the remaining lifespan can play in this context, a question that has received little attention in Germany to date. To this end, we discuss conceptual and methodological aspects, give an overview of the state of the international research and present own empirical findings from the German Ageing Survey (DEAS). Our results indicate that men tend to overestimate their lifespan, while women underestimate theirs on average by up to 5 years. Such an underestimation could increase poverty risks in old age and exacerbate existing challenges of current demographic change processes.

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Andreas Mergenthaler / Anna Reuter / Sebastian Klüsener: Subjektiv eingeschätzte Lebensdauer im Kontext sozialer Sicherung 279
Zusammenfassung 279
Abstract: Subjective Estimated Lifespan in the Context of Social Security 279
1. Soziale Sicherung im demografischen Wandel: Welche Rolle spielt die subjektiv eingeschätzte Lebensdauer? 280
2. Konzeptionelle und methodologische Überlegungen 282
2.1 Subjektiv eingeschätzte Lebensdauer 282
2.2 Bevölkerungsbezogene Lebenserwartung und deren Vergleich mit der subjektiv eingeschätzten Lebensdauer 284
3. Subjektiv eingeschätzte Lebensdauer: Eine kritische Betrachtung des Forschungsstands 285
3.1 Unterschätzung der subjektiv eingeschätzten Lebensdauer 286
3.2 Überschätzung der subjektiv eingeschätzten Lebensdauer 288
3.3 Differenzierte Betrachtung nach weiteren soziodemografischen und sozioökonomischen Merkmalen 288
4. Befunde zur subjektiv eingeschätzten verbleibenden Lebenszeit älterer Menschen in Deutschland 290
4.1 Vergleich des DEAS 2020/21 mit den Periodensterbetafeln 2021/23 291
4.2 Vergleich des DEAS 2020/21 mit den Kohortensterbetafeln 1923 bis 1975 293
4.3 Diskussion der Befunde 295
5. Konsequenzen einer unter- oder überschätzten Lebenserwartung 296
5.1 Gesundheitsverhalten 296
5.2 Finanz- und Konsumentscheidungen sowie Übergang in den Ruhestand 297
6. Zusammenfassung und Handlungsempfehlungen für die soziale Sicherung 299
Literatur 301

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